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Explanation for today\'s 3% bump?

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  • Explanation for today\'s 3% bump?

    Was it because we all just put $6000 into VTSAX in our backdoor Roths??

  • #2
    Yup. Hopefully will go down for mine


    • #3
      Most likely correlation: strong jobs report. and the Fed chairman made some comments about interest rates

      ya.  i put my order in yesterday pm for my IRA.  i should have snagged market price at opening.  I need to check..


      • #4
        I'm not sure but I did hear that Jupiter is aligned with Mars.


        • #5
          Wci must have shorted something


          • #6
            Strong jobs growth to hold back the sort of ever spiraling world is ending narrative that's been building for a while. Then Powell spoke with Yellen and Bernanke and they held his hands and showed him how to thread the needle in talks. He read his comments and didnt go off script.

            Actually it was a really great talk, they expressed humility and they dont know a lot of things and all is on the table. Much different than last talk where he seemed rigid and headstrong.

            Didnt hurt that China eased off their rates either last night.

            Could all be gone Monday ofc, dont get attached to it, lol. Now if we can just get trump to not say anything crazy we may at least chill out.


            • #7

              Now if we can just get trump to not say anything crazy we may at least chill out.
              Click to expand...

              he may also say buy the dip or it's just a glitch.


              • #8
                I heard it was due to an excellent salmon haul off the Peruvian coast.


                • #9
                  I think you have the order of operations correct.  First the market moves 3%, then you just plug in whatever explanation feels right afterward.

                  Big-up days have tendency to be in proximity to big-down days and are common in bear markets.

                  I look at it like the market is letting off some steam from downward pressure.  Doesn't have much prognostic value though.


                  • #10
                    Hoping for a short term drop. backdoor roth and TLH back into VTSAX


                    • #11

                      Strong jobs growth
                      Click to expand...

                      Then Powell spoke
                      Click to expand...

                      Agree, but it was 99% Powell. Strong jobs growth without dovish remarks from Powell would have been a negative (because it would have implied that the Fed would become more hawkish). Given a dovish Fed, jobs growth is positive.
                      Erstwhile Dance Theatre of Dayton performer cum bellhop. Carried (many) bags for a lovely and gracious 59 yo Cyd Charisse. (RIP) Hosted epic company parties after Friday night rehearsals.


                      • #12
                        “Now if we can just get trump to not say anything crazy we may at least chill out.”
                        Be careful what you wish for!
                        Reminder, traditionally Vice President has been a behind the scenes simmering force. What would cable news be without tweets and bluster? Mike Pence’s fourth draft of State of the Union Address:
                        Agenda item number 1 - slow and steady progress.
                        Agenda item number 5,280 - slow and steady progress, we are a mile from where we started. (cue applause with standing ovation).

                        Pro or con, “What did Trump do today? “ has become an addictive stimulation that could have serious withdrawal symptoms. Twitter may go back to background noise and cable TV might go back to news.
                        Back to the good old days of press releases announcing two grants to study fire ants. Wonderful! Yawn.


                        • #13
                          Possible. He was very deferential about knowing where we are and the natural rates of things. If we had a terrible jobs number and they were dovish, it would have been rough, confirming global slowdown fears.

                          Probably was about the best mix of conditions one could hope for.


                          • #14
                            Powell. or the Jupiter Mars alignment thing or perhaps the Salmon.


                            • #15
                              I get the jokes, but on some days its not random and there are definitely obvious things that move the market (not obvious which direction it will go). Its every other day when they try to fit narrative to price. A man is correct though that big moves happen after big moves, and we're still below the 200 day and realized vol is through the roof.

                              The current narrative has been global slowdown spreading to the US, and the great jobs report helps to really allay this fear (though its typical right before the turn), china cutting is exactly what everyone is looking for, China to step in as demand of last resort like they did in 2016. They have less ability this time around. Also, as mentioned, people get tired of selling and look for confirmation.

                              Bear rallies are the strongest rallies you've ever seen. All of the greatest rallies in history have come during the worst time periods, the great depression, gfc, black monday, one knows whether that was a short term bottom or just a trick before more pain. We have had two very strong up days inside a week which hopefully builds some strength here.