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    Brains428
    Physician

  • Brains428
    replied
    I do sort of wonder if someone behind the scenes is tapping his shoulder to sell because of the overall size of Tesla in the SP, as well as the percentage of call options that exist. Maybe they're asking him to sell to allow for the stock to drop to "appropriate" weighting and reduce overall systemic risk. As alluded to in the thread Tim posted- the derivatives market is massive and a lot of premium is held up in bullish TSLA options. It doesn't look like an organic unwind is going to happen because of BTFD mantras and a blind eye to negative earnings call for all companies (minus PLTN).

    Not sure when Pelosi's options expire, so it would be interesting to see her filings and if she (or her husband) sells before Elon does.

    Just a tin foil hat theory. Monday AM TSLA, SPX, and VIX will be interesting to see.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    If the SEC is approving tweets before they are put out before looking into insider trading in congress then I would count that as a major faux pas.
    No. As part of the SEC review of his prior faux pas, the company and he agreed to have his comments reviewed internally for compliance, not by the SEC. I think it was the Saudi Arabia buyout stuff.
    Of course the internal reviewer is still paid by Elon. He was a loose cannon. The company and Elon agreed to comply. Now Elon has to only shoot the messenger.
    Congrees would never agree to any settlement.

    Leave a comment:

  • Lordosis
    Family Physician

  • Lordosis
    replied
    Originally posted by Zaphod View Post

    Why would you attempt to manipulate it in a way that would be perceived as negative?

    These are his options granted as part of his pay package in 2012, there is nothing hidden or cryptic in this at all. They expire soon and need to be dealt with.
    No no. I am saying this is legit and he is really without any other option but doing it in a public way makes his other statements that are more manipulative seem more legit.

    Leave a comment:

  • CordMcNally
    Moderator

  • CordMcNally
    replied
    Originally posted by Tim View Post
    My understanding is Elon now has stuff reviewed for SEC compliance before he sends stuff out. Hypothetical of course.
    If the SEC is approving tweets before they are put out before looking into insider trading in congress then I would count that as a major faux pas.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    Why even create a poll if he knows what he is already going to do? Hoping that people vote yes and then he sells as previously planned so it makes it looks like he'll just willynilly listen to Twitter polls? He almost always makes things much more complicated than they need to be.
    Actually, restricted employees (as you know) have the insider trading requirements. These can and do influence markets. Planned sales for need or diversification are often publicized to avoid misinterpretation of sales of stock. Any sale by an insider is viewed skeptically as a top or whatever.
    Any planned sale to cover the tax on an options exercise would have a huge impact. The size of the and the fact that it is Elon is very difficult to execute and communicate without disrupting the market. Dark pools and private placements are way over my sophistication. For all we know, Elon may actually be executing or arranging dumping shares now. Subsequently the disclosure is required. PR a poll or general discussion followed by reporting.. No one dumps the stock and Elon raises cash. My understanding is Elon now has stuff reviewed for SEC compliance before he sends stuff out. Hypothetical of course.

    Leave a comment:

  • CordMcNally
    Moderator

  • CordMcNally
    replied
    Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
    Jeff bezos and bill gates sell stock to pay for things and taxes. Why is this any different?
    I remember all the social media and AOL polls they would create for attention.

    Leave a comment:

  • Nysoz
    General Surgery

  • Nysoz
    replied
    I’m assuming there’s a difference between getting a loan for millions of dollars and billions of dollars.

    Also the negative perception of continuing to exploit the live borrow die strategy the wealthy use.

    Jeff bezos and bill gates sell stock to pay for things and taxes. Why is this any different?

    Leave a comment:

  • CordMcNally
    Moderator

  • CordMcNally
    replied
    Originally posted by Zaphod View Post

    Why would you attempt to manipulate it in a way that would be perceived as negative?

    These are his options granted as part of his pay package in 2012, there is nothing hidden or cryptic in this at all. They expire soon and need to be dealt with.
    Why even create a poll if he knows what he is already going to do? Hoping that people vote yes and then he sells as previously planned so it makes it looks like he'll just willynilly listen to Twitter polls? He almost always makes things much more complicated than they need to be.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    More margin available?

    Leave a comment:

  • Zaphod
    Physician

  • Zaphod
    replied
    Originally posted by Lordosis View Post
    Or this is just a ploy and for show for when he is actually manipulating the market?
    Why would you attempt to manipulate it in a way that would be perceived as negative?

    These are his options granted as part of his pay package in 2012, there is nothing hidden or cryptic in this at all. They expire soon and need to be dealt with.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Originally posted by Lordosis View Post
    Or this is just a ploy and for show for when he is actually manipulating the market?
    Elon manipulating the market? Who would have thought of that? The cool part is exercise is all current income.

    Leave a comment:

  • Lordosis
    Family Physician

  • Lordosis
    replied
    Or this is just a ploy and for show for when he is actually manipulating the market?

    Leave a comment:

  • Zaphod
    Physician

  • Zaphod
    replied
    Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
    The brother part seems shady for sure. Other members of the board have sold too. Though it’s not uncommon for board members to sell shares, especially when the share price is really high(tm).

    Elon’s ceo compensation award is all stock options that expire soon. In order to exercise them, he needs to pay the tax bill which would be to the tune of around $12B in taxes.

    He currently lives off margin/portfolio loans and doesn’t have $12B in cash laying around. I’m also not sure which bank would loan someone $12B to pay taxes even if their net worth was well higher than that.

    So the only thing to do is sell some shares to exercise the options and get even more shares in return.

    I don’t understand the whole Twitter poll or fanfare thing though.
    This is exactly the case, he is basically forced to sell shares to accept shares/exercise options. Im sure he could get a loan but its pretty overly complicated and dumb. He could not exercise but that would be leaving billions on the table, also dumb.

    Maybe the poll is simply pre warming the fan base and getting ahead of all the "musk is dumping" etc...takes that will inevitably happen.

    Leave a comment:

  • Nysoz
    General Surgery

  • Nysoz
    replied
    The brother part seems shady for sure. Other members of the board have sold too. Though it’s not uncommon for board members to sell shares, especially when the share price is really high(tm).

    Elon’s ceo compensation award is all stock options that expire soon. In order to exercise them, he needs to pay the tax bill which would be to the tune of around $12B in taxes.

    He currently lives off margin/portfolio loans and doesn’t have $12B in cash laying around. I’m also not sure which bank would loan someone $12B to pay taxes even if their net worth was well higher than that.

    So the only thing to do is sell some shares to exercise the options and get even more shares in return.

    I don’t understand the whole Twitter poll or fanfare thing though.

    Leave a comment:

  • Brains428
    Physician

  • Brains428
    replied
    Elon puts out a twitter poll to see if he should sell 10% of his TSLA stock. His brother sold $110MM worth of it yesterday per filings.

    Nothing to see here.

    Leave a comment:

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