Tesla, the investment

[StarTrekDoc]

All these legacy companies need to deliver in volume. They are directly competing for the same battery contracts as most do not have their own sourcing.

This is also the reason Tesla can build evs cheaper and higher margins than all those legacies.

The stock valuations will further correct with competition yes.

Tesla remains ahead and pushing the envelope with casting and wiring efficiency to remain ahead in the margins. This is not an issue for continued profits. The price.premium probably will lower with competition.

Tesla will remain quite profitable . The question is how much and how much it'll support the stock price.

[Tim]

All these legacy companies need to deliver in volume. They are directly competing for the same battery contracts as most do not have their own sourcing.

This is also the reason Tesla can build evs cheaper and higher margins than all those legacies.

The stock valuations will further correct with competition yes.

Tesla remains ahead and pushing the envelope with casting and wiring efficiency to remain ahead in the margins. This is not an issue for continued profits. The price.premium probably will lower with competition.

Tesla will remain quite profitable . The question is how much and how much it'll support the stock price.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/746742/number-of-new-pickup-sales-in-the-united-states/

Tesla is way behind in the pickup truck market. The top 5 selling vehicles. Great batteries and no truck for 50% of vehicle sales will be kill market share.
Just how long do you think battery shortages will constrain competition? "Wiring efficiency" is a competitive advantage for way out of date styles?
The automotive companies are being under estimated. They have not even started. Every patent Tesla has is now open source. Available for copying, improvement and implementation.

Keyboards, memory, displays and hard disc drive's used to be covered by 100's of patents and migrated to commodity status. Now the the technology moat disappeared. Marketing and styling sells product. New truck and new designs are needed. In 5 years Tesla will become collectors items. Refresh is needed.

[bovie]

And vol drag in times like these. An oscillating flat market can also really hurt a 3x fund.

Again, sort of.

A higher frequency of high-volatility days contributes significantly more to volatility decay, for sure. But because these days, over time, tend to pop more often than dive, the net result is still substantially positive over longer time frames.

An oscillating flat market has a fairly muted effect on total returns over a reasonable time frame, assuming that the oscillation is not enormous (as it would tend not to be if the market were truly flat), simply because the "decay" results much more quickly from large-percentage movements.

That's why with a standard fund you can recover from a 10% loss with an 11% gain, and a 20% loss with a 25% gain, but need a 400% gain to recover from an 80% loss and a 900% gain to recover from a 90% loss.

Reduce these gains and losses to <1%, which is where the overwhelming majority of daily S&P returns fall, and you'll see why it takes long periods of time for small oscillating movements in a flat market to result in any substantial decay for leverage ratios at or below 2x.

You are right that the effect does start becoming much more pronounced around 3x, but this is overwhelmingly due to high frequency bursts of high-volatility days instead of a lazily oscillating flat market.

Such is life in the world of exponents. Caveat emptor.

[bovie]

No doubt. I'm not advocating this. I'm just saying seems like a safer bet than trying to find a single stock that will 10x. Also I would venture that a 20 year time horizon and a goal of 50% Roth space 50% nonRoth with incremental investments of $6500 or whatever the Roth max is then into UPRO until the 50/50 is achieved will be the most likely way to meet that goal.

"Safer" is relative. I'd agree that it's certainly more likely to yield a positive result.

Would suggest some sort of hedge though--because once you dip down 80-90% you just lost yourself the better part of a decade in that hole.

[StarTrekDoc]

After years of waiting for the stamping machines and batteries, cyber truck ready for 2023.

Will it be a hit in volume in popularity? Probably. Will it sell more than all the other trucks? I bet they will .

It's the next generation Hummer.

[Dont_know_mind]

Agree. Have said this in several threads in the past.

We have 100% of our Roth space dedicated to a 3x leveraged momentum strategy.

The ability to de-risk with a substantial amount of assets completely tax-free in a few decades is crucial.

Not to mention no tax drag or rebalancing barriers along the way.

What is 3X leveraged momentum strategy? You may have posted in the past about it but I missed that.

[bovie]

What is 3X leveraged momentum strategy? You may have posted in the past about it but I missed that.

It was in a different thread: https://forum.whitecoatinvestor.com/...600#post358600

Sort of a personal blend between a momentum strategy like Antonacci's (which I also use) and a risk-parity strategy.

[Dont_know_mind]

I'm on a wait & see approach. Nothing exciting. Kinda boring rn.

Some Vti, some Treasuries (medium to long duration, no leverage), some high yields with low duration and relatively good credit-worthiness ie less junky; some cash.

Also have some shorts via 1x bear ETFs on some high beta names (including this thread's namesake ofc). Some cash.

Congrats on playing the crypto bubble well. It just seemed like trading dog turds to me and I lacked the mental flexibility to see how profitable it could be. If I’m still around next time there is a huge bubble, I’ll be a buyer.

I packed retirement space with a property that may X10 in 10 years, but still waiting.

My current plan with Roth: I’ve moved Roth space to 30 year US treasuries and intend to switch to LETF’s when there is a recession-which I hope will be soon, but if it is not, I will miss out a bit.

[Zaphod]

Sort of. The problem with pure UPRO is that a drawdown of 70-90%—or higher—will kill you.

What kind of 3x investment wont kill you in a big draw down? If you utilize leverage you have to manage it of course. Even this year the daily rebalance has performed ok and still under does 3x to the downside, a flat market but volatile is the real pain, but again, no 3x leverage works for a full cycle and will always under perform spy alone.

Dont get me wrong, big time fan/user of 3x funds, but in the right time/positions.

[bovie]

What kind of 3x investment wont kill you in a big draw down? If you utilize leverage you have to manage it of course. Even this year the daily rebalance has performed ok and still under does 3x to the downside, a flat market but volatile is the real pain, but again, no 3x leverage works for a full cycle and will always under perform spy alone.

Dont get me wrong, big time fan/user of 3x funds, but in the right time/positions.

I was responding to a comment regarding holding UPRO vs. S&P as a way to effectively triple your Roth space, and making the point that this sounds workable on its face until you’re down 90% and trying to climb out of that hole for the next decade or two.

[Zaphod]

After years of waiting for the stamping machines and batteries, cyber truck ready for 2023.

Will it be a hit in volume in popularity? Probably. Will it sell more than all the other trucks? I bet they will .

It's the next generation Hummer.

Huh? Its not road legal as is, and whatever changes will change the perception and subset of people that want it. It will not outsell other trucks, thats insane. F150 has been the best selling vehicle in US for over 40 years. Its yearly sales volume is 50% of teslas all time high total production.

Could it ramp and become something like the other models have, sure, but it isnt going to sweep the truck world by storm, just too different a cohort. The people that buy tslas tend to live in cities, and big trucks are nightmares in cities.

[StarTrekDoc]

Huh? Its not road legal as is, and whatever changes will change the perception and subset of people that want it. It will not outsell other trucks, thats insane. F150 has been the best selling vehicle in US for over 40 years. Its yearly sales volume is 50% of teslas all time high total production.

Could it ramp and become something like the other models have, sure, but it isnt going to sweep the truck world by storm, just too different a cohort. The people that buy tslas tend to live in cities, and big trucks are nightmares in cities.

GM Hummer consumer truck, not the government one. -- all those folk (Arnold) who bought for eye candy. That's the cyber truck.

EV Trucks - Rivian, Ford Lightning, etc. Not the ICE F150. apples-to-apples

[auggie1983]

Always comes back to what your goals are and what’s the least volatile/most risk-free way to meet those goals. If you want your Roth space to perform like the rest of your portfolio, structure it that way. If you want the chance to greatly expand your Roth space, you need to take levered risk. There’s downside to that. Start with the goal and determine the optimal way to get there given the conditions.

[Hoopoe]

Always comes back to what your goals are and what’s the least volatile/most risk-free way to meet those goals. If you want your Roth space to perform like the rest of your portfolio, structure it that way. If you want the chance to greatly expand your Roth space, you need to take levered risk. There’s downside to that. Start with the goal and determine the optimal way to get there given the conditions.

I use PSLDX in my Roth for this very reason. Burned me in 2022 but I think long term with regular investments it's a worthy gamble.

[CordMcNally]

Is the Cybertruck really getting produced this time?