Tesla, the investment

[Panscan]

I own a 2007 Toyota Camry Hybrid. Reliable except for the hybrid battery dying and making the whole vehicle unusable. The gas engine alone cannot do the job even though it outputs 145HP.

I too thought that Toyota, with all their know how and experience in ICE and hybrid vehicles would find it a piece of cake in transitioning to full EV. But unfortunately not so. Full EV require not only lot of research but also scaling up. And they wasted a lot of their research talent and money on hydrogen vehicles. Their early EV offerings are miserable.

Even in Bay Area, if you charge your EV at night, you will pay far less in "fuel" costs than any gasoline car.

That’s just not true. With high electricity costs typical of bay area and a comparison to a reasonable vehicle which gets 35 mpg there are people who are barely winning driving an EV. Also keep in mind the actual fuel cost of 10k mile operation per year is pretty small like 1000-1500 bucks in general. So you’re paying 40-50k in lots of situations to maybe save 500 bucks. Pretty horrible ROI from that perspective. Obviously also benefits in terms of maintenance, acceleration and emissions etc but purely from a value perspective , getting to be a worse and worse move. This trend will likely continue

[StarTrekDoc]

That’s just not true. With high electricity costs typical of bay area and a comparison to a reasonable vehicle which gets 35 mpg there are people who are barely winning driving an EV. Also keep in mind the actual fuel cost of 10k mile operation per year is pretty small like 1000-1500 bucks in general. So you’re paying 40-50k in lots of situations to maybe save 500 bucks. Pretty horrible ROI from that perspective. Obviously also benefits in terms of maintenance, acceleration and emissions etc but purely from a value perspective , getting to be a worse and worse move. This trend will likely continue

Show the costs of equivalent vehicles. It was already cheaper when gas was $3 by quite a lot and still hasn't returne to those levels. Not even close.

When V2X does finally get going when Tesla decides to pull that level, the ROI will exponentially improve. We earned nearly $800 this year on our measely 10kw Powerwall2 battery.

[Tim]

Show the costs of equivalent vehicles. It was already cheaper when gas was $3 by quite a lot and still hasn't returne to those levels. Not even close.

When V2X does finally get going when Tesla decides to pull that level, the ROI will exponentially improve. We earned nearly $800 this year on our measely 10kw Powerwall2 battery.

"Existing solar producers will be able to maintain their current arrangements for 20 years. But future customers would face stricter terms, which industry experts say could reduce net metering credit by anywhere between 75 and 80 percent."

California is the unknown. That $800 could shrink or not. You saved $16,000 over 20 years for how much of an investment? Add up the panels, cars and batteries and installation. The point is legislation could change the numbers for even changing out a battery.

[StarTrekDoc]

"Existing solar producers will be able to maintain their current arrangements for 20 years. But future customers would face stricter terms, which industry experts say could reduce net metering credit by anywhere between 75 and 80 percent."

California is the unknown. That $800 could shrink or not. You saved $16,000 over 20 years for how much of an investment? Add up the panels, cars and batteries and installation. The point is legislation could change the numbers for even changing out a battery.

Absolutely true. Please note your quote on NetMetering 3.0 really impacts solar; not solar+batteries and the earning we made was strictly batteries selling back to the grid (aka we became energy providers during the grid alerts and made out like bandits).

That $800 was completely outside of our financial calculations for ROI and just a nice little bonus.

So it cuts both ways on the finances.

I just know that energy demand isn't going away any time soon and batteries --whether distributed or large batterypacks or V2x leveraged -- will be an integral part of the future infrastructure to smooth supply/demands curves.

[StarTrekDoc]

Just watch Texas and the new legislation allowing distributed batteries to play on the open market. I've always said Tesla is an energy company that happens to make fast EVs.

[Panscan]

Just watch Texas and the new legislation allowing distributed batteries to play on the open market. I've always said Tesla is an energy company that happens to make fast EVs.

It’s interesting how people constantly want to branch Tesla out and make it other genres as it’s core business fails. It’s not a car company it’s a tech company, it’s a battery company, it’s a robot company, etc etc.

[Tim]

Absolutely true. Please note your quote on NetMetering 3.0 really impacts solar; not solar+batteries and the earning we made was strictly batteries selling back to the grid (aka we became energy providers during the grid alerts and made out like bandits).

That $800 was completely outside of our financial calculations for ROI and just a nice little bonus.

So it cuts both ways on the finances.

I just know that energy demand isn't going away any time soon and batteries --whether distributed or large batterypacks or V2x leveraged -- will be an integral part of the future infrastructure to smooth supply/demands curves.

Back to the point, smoothing might not really be the best solution. Switched lanes from uses to sources. Diversity works for both supply and uses.

[StarTrekDoc]

It’s interesting how people constantly want to branch Tesla out and make it other genres as it’s core business fails. It’s not a car company it’s a tech company, it’s a battery company, it’s a robot company, etc etc.

This person at least has been consistent.

As you've certainly been tracking and hoping for a glorious failure of Tesla (not sure why you'd want an American based company to fail and root for what -- Mercedes or Toyota?) You'll note that the primary area of continued profits from the get go was selling and using batteries ---whether in cars, or energy grid directly or solar companies. Batteries (energy), the cost of their production, and rate of production drive their business.

[Tim]

This person at least has been consistent.

As you've certainly been tracking and hoping for a glorious failure of Tesla (not sure why you'd want an American based company to fail and root for what -- Mercedes or Toyota?) You'll note that the primary area of continued profits from the get go was selling and using batteries ---whether in cars, or energy grid directly or solar companies. Batteries (energy), the cost of their production, and rate of production drive their business.

Apple was a computer company, Amazon was a book seller. Google was a search engine. Ever ready was a Bunny company. Tesla was a money losing car company.

[Kamban]

It’s interesting how people constantly want to branch Tesla out and make it other genres as it’s core business fails. It’s not a car company it’s a tech company, it’s a battery company, it’s a robot company, etc etc.

So based on falling stock price it has become a failed company??. It delivered 343K cars in the 3r qtr. It now has more competitors and is not a vertical growth company but settling into a more mature EV company. So its stock price and PE ratio has to fall.

And Elon's antics do not help. But its core business is unlikely to fail, whether it is vehicles or batteries.

[Panscan]

So based on falling stock price it has become a failed company??. It delivered 343K cars in the 3r qtr. It now has more competitors and is not a vertical growth company but settling into a more mature EV company. So its stock price and PE ratio has to fall.

And Elon's antics do not help. But its core business is unlikely to fail, whether it is vehicles or batteries.

The stock price is a measure of the companies ability to sell cars which is being rapidly eviscerated by elons antics, poor quality control and lack of innovation.

Let’s see q4. Demand right now is non existent.

[Brains428]

This person at least has been consistent.

As you've certainly been tracking and hoping for a glorious failure of Tesla (not sure why you'd want an American based company to fail and root for what -- Mercedes or Toyota?) You'll note that the primary area of continued profits from the get go was selling and using batteries ---whether in cars, or energy grid directly or solar companies. Batteries (energy), the cost of their production, and rate of production drive their business.

I thought panasonic made their batteries?

[StarTrekDoc]

I thought panasonic made their batteries?

In the past a lot. Now - Some. Tesla gets batteries as much as they can too cause they themselves can't make enough.

Even moreso with new law for domestic battery sourcing for US cars.

[xraygoggles]

So based on falling stock price it has become a failed company??. It delivered 343K cars in the 3r qtr. It now has more competitors and is not a vertical growth company but settling into a more mature EV company. So its stock price and PE ratio has to fall.

And Elon's antics do not help. But its core business is unlikely to fail, whether it is vehicles or batteries.

Nah - the stock price is falling because the company's growth potential and Elon premium is coming back to reality. Still nowhere near fundamental value ofc, but getting there.

The company is still profitable (for now) - it's just that the stock price bubble & the cultist genius aura are both being popped.

[StarTrekDoc]

Nah - the stock price is falling because the company's growth potential and Elon premium is coming back to reality. Still nowhere near fundamental value ofc, but getting there.

The company is still profitable (for now) - it's just that the stock price bubble & the cultist genius aura are both being popped.

Exactly; not a failed company, sky is falling.

The shorting folk probably finally making some dollars back after getting trounched years before -- whats left of them.

Truly as a stock -- TSLA has been all over the place with its valuations. Agree that this current is more in-line; It was like Palm was to 3M back in the dotcom era previously.