Tesla, the investment

[StarTrekDoc]

Nah.

the 3.5k for December is to keep inventory moving as the 7.5k anticipated coming and delaying sales for some folk while many others probably won't/can't find a way to get discount ; this is a way to pull those sales for December and the quarter.

[Tim]

"S&P Global Mobility’s latest report on U.S. EV market share shows Tesla leading the way with 65% market share across all EVs registered through the first nine months of 2022, however that figure is down from 79% in 2020. This covers 525,000 EVs registered this year in the U.S."
"But despite the coming onslaught of new entrants, Tesla is still in a good spot given its huge lead and EV manufacturing scale."

65% market share is still a decisive market leader. 14% decline is a significant drop. I would not blame it on Musk/Twitter. Mark. et share was and is expected to decline. The question is how far. Capacity will catch up. Just don't know when.

[Nysoz]

Declining market share percentage but larger raw numbers is just slightly smaller piece/percentage of an expanding pie.

More pie is always good.

[Tim]

Declining market share percentage but larger raw numbers is just slightly smaller piece/percentage of an expanding pie.

More pie is always good.

Really? Over capacity is nasty. Cover the variable cost and not the fixed costs is the road to bankruptcy. The share of the pie is will be very important.
Build one or two plants too many and the boat sinks. An over supply of capacity is fatal. Many auto mfg companies will fail.
Elon knows this. But that does not mean he will put on the brakes on capital spending for plants at the right time or scale.
Same risk as in any capital intensive business. Fixed costs and getting the capacity right is an art.
It's just math.

[StarTrekDoc]

If you were a car manufacturer building new plant --- will it be ICE or EV based? The EV market maybe small, but it's current growing at a great clip. VW is trying to upramp its productive while the Japanese still lagging behind.

With the new US incentives US based; it's a prime time for Japanese to redouble US investments and on EVs -- look to that as a potential spoiler for Musk -- but they are WAY behind on commits and US sourcing materials. Tesla remains having inside track on domestic EV production and ramp up.

I can see Tesla having specs of Model 2 for the european market along with EV cargo too -- they have SO many more segments to even start exploring for market if saturation is even a concern -- it's not.

[Nysoz]

Tesla semi finally delivered last night. 500 miles fully loaded on a single charge.

Possibly comparable load to an ice semi with increased max road weight for evs.

Cost per mile for diesel semi is like $0.78 while Tesla semi is $0.14 (assuming wholesale electricity pricing at a factory/warehouse).

[Panscan]

Tesla semi finally delivered last night. 500 miles fully loaded on a single charge.

Possibly comparable load to an ice semi with increased max road weight for evs.

Cost per mile for diesel semi is like $0.78 while Tesla semi is $0.14 (assuming wholesale electricity pricing at a factory/warehouse).

Believe it when I see it. When cybertruck again?

[CordMcNally]

Tesla semi finally delivered last night. 500 miles fully loaded on a single charge.

Possibly comparable load to an ice semi with increased max road weight for evs.

Cost per mile for diesel semi is like $0.78 while Tesla semi is $0.14 (assuming wholesale electricity pricing at a factory/warehouse).

I’m so confused with this. Didn’t they just do their first 500 mile highway test like a week ago? When should we expect them all to be recalled…2-3 weeks?

[Lordosis]

If you had asked me 6 months ago, I would have told you that my next EV car purchase would be a Tesla, probably Model Y. After the shipshow over at Twitter and all that I have learned about Musk, both his worldview and how he runs a business, I would not buy one if you offered it to me for half the retail price. If you gave me one, I would sell it immediately. As they say, YMMV.

As for stock, I am not a single stock buyer so was never interested.

It is funny that you instantly confirmed Panscan statement

[Tim]

Tesla semi finally delivered last night. 500 miles fully loaded on a single charge.

Possibly comparable load to an ice semi with increased max road weight for evs.

Cost per mile for diesel semi is like $0.78 while Tesla semi is $0.14 (assuming wholesale electricity pricing at a factory/warehouse).

300 mi to 500 mi.
"Possibly".
Three years late. If Pepsi was actually depending on these trucks, those stores would not have had Fritos for the last couple of Super Bowl parties.
I do believe it was ONE truck. There remains to be seen on the load capacity and performance. One "doubter" had the opinion that this delivery of one truck does not even show a proof of concept.
Is this in the prototype stage or proof of concept? There is a long road ahead for these trucks.

[Nysoz]

They've been road testing their semi prototypes for at least two years now. Getting information and input to make the truck as reliable as possible in all climates and road conditions before commercial deliveries. Drove it on dirt/gravel/muddy roads at speed, over a ladder in the cycled background video.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-winter-testing/

They're hiring now for cybertruck in Austin. They have their gigapress installed and Idra is building a second now in Italy. So probably mid/late next year Elon time.

But yes, still no specifics behind weight, possible load, quantity delivered, volume of production for the semi. They did hand over 2 key cards to the 2 different Pepsi executives, so could've been 2 semis or 2 key cards for 1 semi.

Here's some speculation about possible allowable load.

https://insideevs.com/news/624326/tesla-semi-weight-no-load/

Here are the slides from the event. Picture 7 shows the 500 mile trip and elevation changes. Also the full trip video.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/za7p7g/slides_from_tesla_semi_event/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtgaYEh-qSk

[Max Power]

nysoz for Tesla = jaclovou for Bitcoin ...

...eternal optimist pumper

[Tim]

nysoz for Tesla = jaclovou for Bitcoin ...

...eternal optimist pumper

I would bet on Tesla rather than bitcoin. But I am not a betting person. Really need more incentive.

Please note: manufacturing capacity from my view is the biggest issue. EV’s are a new product launch. Successful launch should require or expect front loading of demands. Yes, there will be supply shortages. Demand tails off.
The magic is matching the supply capacity, very expensive in capital intensive business. If you build long term capacity, better hope YOUR total units match up to the level demand.

The art of forecasting:
Customer acceptance in total.
Tesla market share.
The kick in the a$$ is what happens to new vehicle total demand going forward?
If consumers that buy new cars were keeping ICE cars 3.5 years and they love the EV’s low maintenance so much and keep there new EV’s for 7 years, guess you will sell only 50% of the quantities. Idle capacity at 50% will double your overhead. There goes the profits, write off 50% of those factories. Great replacement batteries, guess the used EV market might be more volume than new EV’s.
If someone wants to forecast the EV’s market, go for it.

[Nysoz]

I don’t really advocate others to invest or put money into TSLA outside of indexes. It’s highly risky and volatile, just like Bitcoin/crypto.

I just have a lot of shares I bought when it was much cheaper and sell options off of it. Sure in retrospect I should’ve just sold and diversified at the top when it was really overvalued but hindsight and all.

The difference to me is that Tesla has a tangible product, revenue, earnings, and projected growth. I do like the company and the mission though the crazy ceo can sometimes be a distraction.

[Tim]

“The difference to me is that Tesla has a tangible product, revenue, earnings, and projected growth. I do like the company and the mission though the crazy ceo can sometimes be a distraction.”

Agreed. Have to admit, Tesla would not come close to its progress without tolerating “one really weird dude that marches to his own drummer”.
Got to give the guy some props. He has made a difference in the world. Mostly good for Tesla.