Tesla, the investment

[Tim]

Anyone one remember Worldcom ? The leader in the fiber industry, the one hit wonder that was going to revolutionize the world. Many disruptor companies don’t continue to be great investments.

One of the best salvage jobs ever accomplished.
WorldCom -> MCI -> Verizon.
Capellas earned every penny.

[CordMcNally]

How long before the first recall?

Hmm…I’ll say 6 months and it’ll be related to software.

[Random1]

Might have been a good salvage job, but not for some of us who owned the stock.

[Tim]

Might have been a good salvage job, but not for some of us who owned the stock.

Theft. Pure and simple. The business model and company were successful or could have been.
The fundamentals and market were there.
Sorry about your loss. Capellas and a crew of cohorts were well paid.

[Brains428]

Going full EV globally doesn't eliminate fossil fuels. Batteries are not gifted from the heavens with no energy cost.

I think when we start overthrowing governments for "democracy" (Lithium and Copper mines), then we know whose wearing the pants in the energy space. As of today, oil is king.

[Tim]

Going full EV globally doesn't eliminate fossil fuels. Batteries are not gifted from the heavens with no energy cost.

I think when we start overthrowing governments for "democracy" (Lithium and Copper mines), then we know whose wearing the pants in the energy space. As of today, oil is king.

I can’t prove it, but the US track record seems to point to the US supporting friendly regimes as well as democracy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–United_States_relations

Iran is an example.

[Nysoz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wvfr-H3jpOk

New FSD beta update out. I like this youtuber because he drives through Ann Arbor. My wife used to live there so it's fun seeing the roads and restaurants we used to go to. Overall no interventions or disengagements until in a parking lot at the end (which it's not supposed to be capable of yet), but the car did do some not optimal moves (and showcased humans making the same error) in some of the drives.

[Tim]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/delorean-back-to-future-new-ev-204721980.html

Competition is coming out of the woodwork. Niche marketing. Many will fail.

[CordMcNally]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/delor...204721980.html

Competition is coming out of the woodwork. Niche marketing. Many will fail.

I don't see anything about a flux capacitor so I'm out.

[Kamban]

“Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads.”

[Max Power]

...Competition is coming out of the woodwork. Niche marketing. Many will fail.

Correct, this was Tesla's problem all along:
They have nothing special - aside from ideas. Talk is cheap.

Car makers, mainly existing ones and some new ones, will make EVs and better or cheaper ones than Tesla.
It's a very hard industry to get any kind of edge. For makes aluminum beds, others follow. Tesla talks up electric semis, Volvo and Frieghtliner beat them to it. GM starts cranking SUVs, others copycat. Toyota did hybrids, now they all do. It's a very red ocean business.

The monster DOW-type companies (3M, P&G, Honeywell, Toyota, Coke, Visa, Walmart, Chevron, Altria, etc) do nothing truly special. They weren't the first. They probably aren't even the best products either. They just do what many other competitors don't or can't do... they do it on a very large and profitable scale in terms of manufacture and distribution. They deliver, keep stock levels up, fulfill what they sell. That is their core.

Tesla's stock price split is going to be a disaster, even if it's just 5-1 or whatever. They should have done it a long time ago when they busted the $100 or $200 mark and appeared unstoppable. If I were a shareholder (I'm not, aside from index fractions), I'd vote against splitting a stock that's lost about half its value in the last year.

[xraygoggles]

Tesla's stock price split is going to be a disaster, even if it's just 5-1 or whatever. They should have done it a long time ago when they busted the $100 or $200 mark and appeared unstoppable. If I were a shareholder (I'm not, aside from index fractions), I'd vote against splitting a stock that's lost about half its value in the last year.

Why would it be a disaster? Last time they did it, the stock gamma squeezed to 800 didn't it? That's not going to happen again now, because of different macro conditions, but it's not necessarily a bad thing for new FOMOers to come in.

[Nysoz]

Correct, this was Tesla's problem all along:
They have nothing special - aside from ideas. Talk is cheap.

Car makers, mainly existing ones and some new ones, will make EVs and better or cheaper ones than Tesla.
It's a very hard industry to get any kind of edge. For makes aluminum beds, others follow. Tesla talks up electric semis, Volvo and Frieghtliner beat them to it. GM starts cranking SUVs, others copycat. Toyota did hybrids, now they all do. It's a very red ocean business.

The monster DOW-type companies (3M, P&G, Honeywell, Toyota, Coke, Visa, Walmart, Chevron, Altria, etc) do nothing truly special. They weren't the first. They probably aren't even the best products either. They just do what many other competitors don't or can't do... they do it on a very large and profitable scale in terms of manufacture and distribution. They deliver, keep stock levels up, fulfill what they sell. That is their core.

Tesla's stock price split is going to be a disaster, even if it's just 5-1 or whatever. They should have done it a long time ago when they busted the $100 or $200 mark and appeared unstoppable. If I were a shareholder (I'm not, aside from index fractions), I'd vote against splitting a stock that's lost about half its value in the last year.

Tesla does have an advantage over OEMs and the doubters always seem to discount them. From changing the way they build the car and factory to how vertically integrated they are compared to other manufacturers. They created their own aluminum alloy to use in their casting machines which simplified the car and factory space even further. If you look at my previous post #1009, it shows how much more profitable per car Tesla is compared to Ford. It's why they have better margins than Toyota while growing 50%+ a year.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/profit-margins

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TM/toyota/profit-margins

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/profit-margins

It's true that it's hard to get an edge in the car industry and that's why there's a large list of car companies that have failed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States

Tesla (or any other manufacturer) may or may not fall into that category but they're succeeding where essentially no one else is right now. Making an EV profitably and at scale. So while others are trying to copy them, Tesla makes money on each EV while everyone else loses money on them.

The stock split won't do anything for the stock but make it even easier and more accessible for trading, not that it needs the help because it's already one of the most popular tickers to trade options on.

TSLA is expensive and prices in a lot of growth, that's very valid. Saying Tesla doesn't have anything special isn't. If you're looking for cheap talk, it's easier to look towards all the other companies promising mass EVs for years.

[Random1]

Why would a split be a disaster ? It doesn’t change fundamentals, it just makes it easier for the undercapitalized day trader to get In on the action

[Tim]

Why would a split be a disaster ? It doesn’t change fundamentals, it just makes it easier for the undercapitalized day trader to get In on the action

Day traders are not the objective of a CFO. The volumes are usually insignificant. What a company wants is the big dogs taking investment positions in block trades, that moves the market price and stabilizes the value of the company. A split does bring the capital commitment down to the common person. Day trading is the enemy of a company’s ownership.