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  • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
    Legacy makers have been trying to come out in full force for years with all the 'Tesla killers'. You can probably go back in all the pages and look for mentions of how the competition is coming from 2018. They all have the same troubles, battery limitations and supply chain issues. Why put limited chips in EVs that lose them money when they need to put those in their ICE cars to make a profit and survive?

    They're finally doing now what Tesla did a decade ago and build battery factories with partners but those won't be operational until like 2025.

    Once all the supply chain issues are solved, the question will be, are the 'Tesla killer' EVs going to eat away the Tesla sales in the future or from the legacy ICE sales?
    I would say again Ford starts eating Tesla’s lunch.
    The F-150 is the highest volume vehicle.
    Tesla doesn’t seem to have a truck yet that appeals to the masses. So definitely Ford will steal from ICE vehicles.
    If one should invest for at least 5 years or stay in cash, the date of record would be 2027. Reality is, the car companies have just as much skepticism about the EV feasibility to switch as the public. Haven’t really pushed it. The pressure has been from the government more than the buying public. No clue how long this will really take.

    A lot of restaurants still have plastic straws. Broad public acceptance (better car and better price) will pay probably set the pace.

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    • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJA6F0w-B9g

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF-XwUTUVII

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AE4Sr47LTM

      Here are a few videos. Heavy traffic, then a road at night in Canada without lane markings with lots of stuff happening, then a little through downtown Ann Arbor. Definitely not perfect and needing interventions and some disengagements. You can see the visualizations on the screen and see how much the car picks up with just cameras.

      I've never argued that the price of Tesla isn't expensive or hasn't priced in a lot of growth. Part of me holding TSLA is selling covered calls which brings in quite a good deal of premium over time consistently at the risk of capping potential gains which I'm ok with. The current price and P/E ratio prices in a fair amount of future growth of their car business, but not all growth or other ventures. I'm also always looking for signs of weakness such as slowing growth/lower margins then it risk/reward wouldn't be worth it anymore.

      Basically every new car seemed to be the next Tesla killer. Don't get me wrong, they're all nice in their own ways, Audi E-tron, Porsche Taycan, Lucid Air, Rivian R1T, Mach-E. The other lesser talked about EVs are nice too like the VW ID3/4, Kia Niro/EV6, Hyundai Kona/Ioniq. The Ford Lightning also has a chance at a great vehicle for sure. But ultimately it comes down to the ability to mass produce the EV and make profits which no one else is really doing.
      i didn't watch the videos (I've seen enough on my own). Here's the thing, when the car does something halfway decent people are surprised, BUT the technology should be so good that it should be exactly the opposite i.e. people should be surprised when the car does somewhat questionable.

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      • Tesla has very little (actually active federal government against tesla since nonunion job killer) government assistance for several years.

        There's public demand all right. Can't build them fast enough with extended wait times and raising prices. Growing EV segment each year continues to encroach in total market share. More and more segments entering -- trucks now on the docket. -- so until there's a saturation point seen, there's an unmet demand constrained by supply.

        Ford - not eating anyone's lunch. It's first to market. It would be interesting to see if it sells every EV F150 and eats its own sales. If/When cybertruck gets produced, it'll be interesting to see what transpires. I bet there's a fair amount of buyers out there for cybertruck that wouldn't ever be a truck buyer but a SUV conversion sale instead.

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        • Topical but Ford delivered their first Lightning today.

          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...bertruck-buyer

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          • Originally posted by The White Coat Investor View Post
            The fact that this is the only thread on the forum discussing an individual stock tells you everything you need to know about the stock being discussed and whether you should invest in it. At the end of the day, you buy stocks for the earnings. Ford trades at a PE of 10. GM trades at a PE of 5. Toyota trades at a PE of 9. Tesla trades (after a 50% drop in value) at a PE of 91.

            There's an awful lot of growth priced in that may or may not happen. Are you really willing to pay 10 times as much for a dollar of Tesla earnings as a dollar of Toyota earnings? They both spend the same.
            The short answer is yes. A high PE is common for many growth stocks. Tesla have a negative PE a year ago and now has a PE of 91. I believe in 5 years their PE will come down to 20-30x range similar to many tech stocks. Tesla currently have 75% of the EV market in the US but in 10 years, I see Tesla capturing 50% of the EV market in the world and >50% of vehicles in developed countries will be EVs. In 20 years, there will only be EVs on the streets. Unless something drastically changes, I don't see Toyota being a big player in EV market. Tesla is well ahead of legacy car makers in this game. It has developed a name, a strong fan base, and an ecosystem for EVs. There will always be an EV that is nicer than Tesla but the reality is that the average consumer will look down the street and buy the same EV as his/her neighbors and right now it's Tesla that is most visible. There is a lot of prediction involved here so I'm not putting my retirement portfolio in it but nothing wrong with buying decent # of shares. I see Tesla as Apple in the early phase so I don't want to miss out on the opportunity.

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            • Tesla can certainly be the next Netscape and Toyota the rise be Microsoft explorer. Current dominance means nothing for a tech. Innovate or perish.

              Tesla got to where it is because Elon dared to risk it and disrupt the status quo. Will it be able to pivot successfully and become the next southwest airlines? We shall see

              meanwhile quite enjoying their products. Including recent ability to fully arbitrage Powerwall for time of use.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post
                Tesla can certainly be the next Netscape and Toyota the rise be Microsoft explorer. Current dominance means nothing for a tech. Innovate or perish.

                Tesla got to where it is because Elon dared to risk it and disrupt the status quo. Will it be able to pivot successfully and become the next southwest airlines? We shall see

                meanwhile quite enjoying their products. Including recent ability to fully arbitrage Powerwall for time of use.
                Except you are comparing the virtual/online world to the physical world. It does not take alot of effort for Google Chrome or IE to replace Netscape but Elon is building in the physical world which involes logistical issues of negotiating government contracts and land rights. He has a decade to plan and build out his supercharger network and megafactories. The other car markers are a decade behind. It's not luck that Tesla is the dominant EV vehicle in the US and the highest selling EVs in Europe. This decade is Elon's era as he focuses on expanding footprint, bulding out megafactories, and getting Tesla to as many consumers as possible. I think the next decade will be the "Tim Cook era" for Tesla where they will focus on monetizing their ecosystem with subscriptions to their superchargers, connected car techonology, etc. FSD is just icing on the cake.

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                • The Lightning does look like a nice vehicle from reviews but still reliant on 3rd party chargers which can cause range anxiety. This is a blog post of the first person to get one. Looks like he got 1.6 mi/kWh for an 152.6 mi trip or 625 Wh/mi without towing anything. He also makes comments about Ford's BlueCruise ping ponging between lanes.

                  http://geekyschmidt.com/personal/tra...gfeedback.html

                  Then comes the UI issues with other cars. Here's the BMW iX interface.

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cVoFOx8CDg&t=117s

                  I still think basically any company will sell every EV it can make for the near future. Ultimately it just comes down to being able to mass produce them profitably.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                    I still think basically any company will sell every EV it can make for the near future. Ultimately it just comes down to being able to mass produce them profitably.
                    1.6mi/kwH - not bad. 50% of what a my Y gets. Doesn't translate into well compared to F150 20-24 mph drop to ICE SUV. So the drop is more significant. Still the cost at 1.6mi/kwh translates to about 50% gas costs -- depends on state/time/cost of charging.

                    Volume is the key. And the key to that is battery supply. That was the key to Tesla's success in funds to build Gigafactory for that sole purpose to build Tesla 3 in volume in affordable manner. Trouble with legacy companies -- they don't have the shareholder tolerance to do massive investment with a quarter-to-quarter balance sheet to manage.

                    VW luckily had the PR cover of diesel-gate to allow them to invest. Irony.

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                    • “depends on state/time/cost of charging. ”
                      Cost of purchase.
                      Operating costs.
                      Cost of maintenance.
                      Does anyone think electricity production is fixed?
                      That has not even come close to being solved or put in place on the scale needed. EV depends upon that.

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                      • Originally posted by Tim View Post
                        “depends on state/time/cost of charging. ”
                        Cost of purchase.
                        Operating costs.
                        Cost of maintenance.
                        Does anyone think electricity production is fixed?
                        That has not even come close to being solved or put in place on the scale needed. EV depends upon that.
                        Night time charges are dirt cheap everywhere; mainly there's a certain amount of charge needed to electrify the grid. We pay extremely large rates to promote a concentrated use at night: (0.09 per kwh vs 0.21 typical daytime vs 0.46 peak evenings).

                        Heck,EVs could be part of the solution of upgrading, stabilizing, and scaling the grid with V2H/V2G tech already available (just not mainstreamed as Elon wants us all to buy more batteries --PW2).

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by GIMD View Post

                          The short answer is yes. A high PE is common for many growth stocks. Tesla have a negative PE a year ago and now has a PE of 91. I believe in 5 years their PE will come down to 20-30x range similar to many tech stocks. Tesla currently have 75% of the EV market in the US but in 10 years, I see Tesla capturing 50% of the EV market in the world and >50% of vehicles in developed countries will be EVs. In 20 years, there will only be EVs on the streets. Unless something drastically changes, I don't see Toyota being a big player in EV market. Tesla is well ahead of legacy car makers in this game. It has developed a name, a strong fan base, and an ecosystem for EVs. There will always be an EV that is nicer than Tesla but the reality is that the average consumer will look down the street and buy the same EV as his/her neighbors and right now it's Tesla that is most visible. There is a lot of prediction involved here so I'm not putting my retirement portfolio in it but nothing wrong with buying decent # of shares. I see Tesla as Apple in the early phase so I don't want to miss out on the opportunity.
                          I also believe their PE will come down. But I bet we don't agree on whether the P comes down or the earnings go up to get it down.
                          Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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                          • Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post

                            Night time charges are dirt cheap everywhere; mainly there's a certain amount of charge needed to electrify the grid. We pay extremely large rates to promote a concentrated use at night: (0.09 per kwh vs 0.21 typical daytime vs 0.46 peak evenings).

                            Heck,EVs could be part of the solution of upgrading, stabilizing, and scaling the grid with V2H/V2G tech already available (just not mainstreamed as Elon wants us all to buy more batteries --PW2).
                            V2H/V2G - who is going to manufacture and install and service these.
                            Cut of fossil fuels, and what is the source of electricity? Who pays for this?
                            Price is significant object. There are a huge number of technologies that make logical sense but never succeed in widespread adoption.

                            EVs being part of the solution is very key.
                            Do you really think every individual dwelling can be energy independent? No need for a grid at all would be a huge cost savings. Wanting access to a grid and then the benefit of not using it is going to be a battle. I can see “surge pricing”. Just like Uber. EVs are the end user.

                            Have you seen a straw man for San Diego? I would really like to see how hospitals, schools and businesses have agreed on a plan. Someone has to actually lead this real planning. Time to wake up from dreams and get to work.
                            Monumental chaos.
                            Sorry for being cynical. I think you know how difficult this will be. What you see as an advantage will be seen as a benefit for someone else. Even if a solid plan with accurate costing was completely finished, give me a guess how many years it would take to be approved and implemented?
                            I admire your actual level headed approach. Can you straighten out California please?
                            I will pm you a link, so as not to get political and bring non energy topics in.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
                              Topical but Ford delivered their first Lightning today.

                              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...bertruck-buyer
                              How long before the first recall?

                              Comment


                              • Anyone one remember Worldcom ? The leader in the fiber industry, the one hit wonder that was going to revolutionize the world. Many disruptor companies don’t continue to be great investments.

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