Tesla, the investment

[Anne]

Tim wrote:

StarTrekDoc wrote:

To a biker, a motorcycle looks like a pro needs to ride it. It doesn’t. It’s just an electrified bike. 

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LOL! Not only are you a physician, your a comedian. Please show me the EV motorcycle that you recommend.

Do you really think a motorcycle is a good choice? If its a gas motorcycle, hmmm, most everyone in the ER would kinda suggest you not just hop on one and hope its easy to ride. More like “lost another one”. No thanks.

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I'm guessing STD meant powered bike, but it also sounds like you are doubting the existence of electric motorcycles.  I saw one in Europe a couple of months ago--pretty awesome, and so quiet.  I didn't catch the make (yes, it was fast), but here are a few examples

https://electrek.co/2018/09/11/rmk-electric-motorcycle-without-hub/

https://www.energicamotorusa.com/electric-motorcycle-energica-ego/

[Tim]

Anne wrote:

I’m guessing STD meant powered bike, but it also sounds like you are doubting the existence of electric motorcycles. I saw one in Europe a couple of months ago–pretty awesome, and so quiet. I didn’t catch the make (yes, it was fast), but here are a few examples https://electrek.co/2018/09/11/rmk-electric-motorcycle-without-hub/ https://www.energicamotorusa.com/electric-motorcycle-energica-ego/

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Do the work with the EV vehicle charging stations? Are they safer than other motorcycles?

[StarTrekDoc]

Back to investments -  330.90 USD +16.04 (5.09%)

Let's see if they can sustain the Q4 growth and hit 7k weekly of Model 3.  If they do that, they'll be the top selling sedan in the US in quantity.   In revenue, they already crushed everyone.  It's impressive that they got a bunch of upsells from the Camry/Accord world with the current selections.

That means they may have even a larger lever to pull when the mid range and standard range comes out.   no hurry to pull those when haven't even opened up the Europe/Asian market -- which very well have to wait until the China Gigafactory 3 is developed.

In other news -- Model Y teased.

[Dont_know_mind]

The quietness of electric vehicles is probably a hazard to pedestrians and unpowered cyclists.
Can you imagine electric busses and trucks being ubiquitous. They would need to add extra noises for pedestrian safety.

[Dr.V. Investor]

Still perplexed why it’s worth $56billion. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/tesla-faces-criminal-probe-over-allegedly-misstating-production-numbers-and-misleading-investors-wsj.html

[Anne]

Dont_know_mind wrote:

The quietness of electric vehicles is probably a hazard to pedestrians and unpowered cyclists.
Can you imagine electric busses and trucks being ubiquitous. They would need to add extra noises for pedestrian safety.

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As someone who loves to walk, run, and bike, I have thought about that, but I think that's just us not being used to it. Once electric vehicles ARE ubiquitous, we will expect them and be alert for them, and someday we (or the next generation) will marvel that we once put up with all the noise (and other) pollution.

sorry to detract from the investment talk.  I have no interest in investing in Tesla, or really in following EM's drama, but I'm thankful for what the company has done to advance the technology and drive other companies to do the same.

[Tim]

Anne,
Feel free to run or walk to the “safe” electric motor cycle. Watch out for the light rail though. Two cars and a jogger today.
There is honor among thieves. Large short was put on Tesla set to expire close to the scheduled release. Funny how Tesla moved the announcement up two weeks.
Basically, manipulating the stock price. Don’t worry, I am glad you are thankful. How impressed were you with the Volt? Kinda of doubt you actually will buy one. Interfere with your exercise.

[Anne]

Tim wrote:

Anne,
Feel free to run or walk to the “safe” electric motor cycle. Watch out for the light rail though. Two cars and a jogger today.
There is honor among thieves. Large short was put on Tesla set to expire close to the scheduled release. Funny how Tesla moved the announcement up two weeks.
Basically, manipulating the stock price. Don’t worry, I am glad you are thankful. How impressed were you with the Volt? Kinda of doubt you actually will buy one. Interfere with your exercise.

I can't tell if you are trying to be funny or sarcastic. Perhaps a bit of both? Or perhaps it is lost in translation. I have no need to walk or run to a motorcycle. I have ridden on motorcycles when I was younger, but never really enjoyed it enough to make up for the risk and have taken care of too many patients injured via MCC. Nobody is refuting that riding in a car is safer than riding in a motorcycle. I'm not sure how you are conflating power source with safety. I also wholeheartedly agree that one should exercise basic common sense when crossing permanent public transportation lines such as a light rail. If a pedestrian or vehicle tries to spar with the light rail, chances are overwhelmingly high that the light rail will win.

I'm not in the market for a new car right now. I highly suspect that the next car I buy, however, will be electric. It may or may not be a Tesla-- there are multiple other options in the pipeline, and I think the options will continue to grow--and as they do, the logistical kinks will get further worked out. I'm sure there were people in 1910 saying "this car thing will never catch on!  There's not enough gas stations to make sure you can always fuel up! and the road quality is crap!"

[Zaphod]

Zaphod wrote:

So my conclusion is the equity price tumbles to match reality. Time frame and course are harder, but by 2019q2 several big unavoidable things happen that should be making things more clear. If they raise money some way on the other hand, short burn of the century indeed, would be nuts. Which makes me assume they probably cant.

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Time is upon us and things are looking to have shaped up in what I can only describe as the obvious result. Musk admitted to needing a capital raise finally, which is crazy considering its years past due. Projections for next couple quarters are horrific without frankly a miracle cash injection and super high volume/margin sales.

Things are going to get interesting soon. Musk has lot control of the narrative and that is a huge negative as nothing else as really changed.

 

[ajm184]

It was certainly a big cash burn for a single quarter.  Between the loss of tax breaks and more mainstream car manufactures coming to market with viable offerings, it presents a challenging short-medium timeframe challenges remain for Tesla.

The capital raise when it occurs will provide and indicator in terms of size, pricing, and over-subscription of sentiment by Tesla supporters.  If enough defy economic reality/results, then the company may have enough room financially.

[fatlittlepig]

Count FLP as Tesla skeptic.

RE: autonomy day, Tesla is designing a very good “advanced driver’s assist” system, not a self driving car, thus claims that Teslas will be able to function as robotaxis laughable.

[burritos]

Apologies for this redundant post as I posted it in the BRK post too. Been following this stock for a decade now(meaning I threw a few thousand dollars into it). It's done nothing as a stock except for the run up after Buffett's stake in it. But for those who own TSLA and will ride it up or down no matter what, you can hedge with the Chinese version.

Buffett has a 10% stake in the Chinese BYD, the anti-version of Tesla.(EV, but anti as in:not flashy, boring, non statement strategy)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-04-16/the-world-s-biggest-electric-vehicle-company-looks-nothing-like-tesla

Maybe a bump in the price soon as BYD is reporting 600% increase quarterly profit compared to last year. Their ADR share price $13 compared to Tesla’s price of $300.

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3008009/chinese-electric-car-maker-byd-says-its-first-quarter-profit

They sold 250k EV’s last year and building a fourth factory shooting for a legit 400k capacity(backed by gov't mandates and public sentiment).

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/BYD-to-build-4th-electric-car-plant-for-1.5bn

[StarTrekDoc]

Okay, resurrecting and bumping this thread as folk keep posting on the other on TLSA the company.

-I totally agree that the management of the company has been; frankly.....poor.   The worst was to sink investment into Solar City; but they made their bed on that and had to make a hard decision to either incorporate it and double down or cut their HUGE losses as an investor --  they chose the former.   Short term clearly is a loser, but time will tell on whether it will pan out.

With California moving over to time of use for everyone and peak 4p-10p rates,  AND the threat of return of rotating energy cut outages to reduce wildfire risks (and litigation costs).  It's a great setup for Tesla Solar+Battery Powerwall 2 solutions.  -- so it actually pay for itself --- solar tile roofs still WAY off expensive tech.

-They have the right formula and bet with Giga 1.  Giga 2+Solar city was a big mistake.   Giga 3 pretty much forced by current day politics and interesting to see what happens.

-I don't see investors giving up on TSLA regardless.  Worst case is they'll take it private and continue on.---that may be good for current stakeholders or not.

 

[Zaphod]

BCBiker wrote:

You don’t think that the arguments Tesla short make are at all emotional

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I'll just quote myself in the quoted post, "You are frankly buying into a us vs. them mentality that really affects both sides strongly."

-yes, I agree both sides make ridiculous arguments. They are structurally unprofitable. Nothing else matters, everything else is filler people do when bored I have guessed since things dont just magically happen when you make a realization (from both perspectives).

Again, it doesnt matter how people are acting. If tesla executes they succeed regardless of the naysayers, if not it doesnt matter how many people believe in them. Thats just side show stuff. It is very important to assessing where the narrative and overton window are for the company though, as valuation, etc...have never been a good way to tell when a stock does good/bad. Narrative is shifting which is significant.

BCBiker wrote:

I don’t claim that my opinions are 100% correct and that everything I read that supports my assumptions are correct.

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Dont get me wrong, not saying Im 100% correct and have mentioned many times where they could prove me wrong, my thesis would blow up etc...I just view the probabilities differently, and they are far far weighted to one side, much more than many are willing to accept and the financial/reality required to keep them at current valuation is astronomical and not within reality bounds to keep the valuation. Remember their book value is around $25/share and falling. This is an entirely different conversation and degree of upside vs. downside scenario if they were 40 bucks than when they were nearly 400. Thats the disconnect.

And honestly, I update my position as it goes, its foolish to be anchored one way or the other. If they started seeing increasing demand and were meeting it by increased production I would change my mind, facts on the ground are just not supportive of that and given lack of investment wont be for some time, theyve hamstrung themselves.

Also have mentioned where I thought if they raised (last year) stock would skyrocket and pressures would ease. They just waited til it looked like an act of desperation.

They could and may make 100k/qtr cars the rest of the year to hit their low end guidance, but that doesnt materially change anything. Worse, investment banks have signaled they are done and said its over in not so many words, "a distressed credit and restructuring story" aka bankruptcy. We all know the sell, hold, buy, etc...of IBs severely lags and they are screaming liquidate. Thats a serioius development. Expect further downgrades from banks and credit analysts to follow.

BCBiker wrote:

The bringing up of Elon’s private jet is a perfect example.

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I dont think it means what you do, it is a very obvious counter to all the environmentally righteous talk about for reasoning "why tesla". Its important to note a disconnect between reality and propaganda. Just like socialist leaders who bath themselves in luxury at their peoples expense.Click to expand...

BCBiker wrote:

If an executive has to be somewhere it is rationale to spend money and pay environmental cost to get there.

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This doesnt make any sense. Why isnt it rational for me then? And how is it rational in any way to fly a private jet 25 miles?

BCBiker wrote:

How is nuclear going to fix ground level pollution if everyone still has ICE?

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Most of pollution is not tailpipes of course, and even if we have electric and the power supply is dirty, its still not great. Why not as much of both as we can, clean central and cleaner peripheral? This isnt a binary thing.

BCBiker wrote:

On the other hand, what does the person do who predicts the end of the world on a certain day, and that day comes and goes? He modifies his argument and explains away that his calculations were a bit off but correct in the general direction. “Well they were able to raise capital but it was dumb the way they did it and that death spiral I was talking about, well it is going to happen because you see they can’t reduce costs here and you know people will eventually realize that the cars are actually garbage… You see my point? I hope…?

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This person is rational and bayesian and updating their thesis with new information instead of ideologically holding on to their beliefs despite evidence to the contrary. Check the tesla investment thread, I have talked about them raising as a possible positive catalyst. It was reasonable to wonder why it didnt happen. I dont think I personally picked a specific day, this could take years even going terribly the whole time.

 

Odds continue to mount, but that doesnt make them quite yet a certainty, but if you ask me to bet and make a probabilistic argument theres no question. Each qtr that passes just solidifies the outcome more one way or the other and decisions that were made years ago either to invest or not in a vs. b start to make out sized contributions to the outcome.

[StarTrekDoc]

It's a growth company and structured that way.   Go big or Go home.   It'll reward the folk who jumped in early and stayed on to the end.    For those inbetween -- really depends on your fortitude.

That's the same for any growth company.   MySpace lost.  Facebook won.   BooksaMillion, Borders, B+N lost.   Amazon won.   Nokia lost. Apple won (the 2nd time around).  First go around Jobs got kicked out and Microsoft bailed them out --- remember?.

Growth companies litter the landscape of investment despite having a great product.     Ask Betamax or HD-DVD  vs VHS.   or Netscape vs IE.    or AOL or Palm?

IMHO, Tesla may actually be better off private than public.   There's plenty of very rich NON-AMERICAN folk ---read Saudi Arabia -- that will be very interested in doing just that.   I don't think it's the best AMERICAN option either.  Is Tesla 'too big to fail'?  Maybe.