Tesla, the investment

[xraygoggles]

Registrations* in the US - Q1 2022:

• Tesla: 113,882 (up 59%) and 21.8% share
• BMW: 80,482 (down 3%)
• Lexus: 66,907 (down 17%)
• Mercedes-Benz: 60,632 (down 21%)
• Audi: 37,566 (down 37%)
• Cadillac: 29,840 (down %)
• Acura: 29,260 (down 26%)
• Volvo: 23,513 (down 20%)
• Lincoln: 19,977 (down 29%)
• Land Rover: 15,581 (down 39%)
• Porsche: 13,262 (down 24%)
• Genesis: 12,549 (up 53%)
• Infiniti: 11,740 (down 43%)
• Alfa Romeo: 3,542 (down 32%)
• Jaguar: 2,610 (down 36%)

Specifically:
Mercedes-Benz sold 2,091 all-electric EQS during the period, which is slightly more than the Porsche Taycan (1,925).

These are current numbers right - aren't we basing the company's potential & stock price on the future?

Since the demographic of Tesla buyers right now are mainly upper middle class folks, you don't think they will switch to other legacy makers when their EVs come out in full force? How much market share will be taken away from Tesla?

[Nysoz]

Legacy makers have been trying to come out in full force for years with all the 'Tesla killers'. You can probably go back in all the pages and look for mentions of how the competition is coming from 2018. They all have the same troubles, battery limitations and supply chain issues. Why put limited chips in EVs that lose them money when they need to put those in their ICE cars to make a profit and survive?

They're finally doing now what Tesla did a decade ago and build battery factories with partners but those won't be operational until like 2025.

Once all the supply chain issues are solved, the question will be, are the 'Tesla killer' EVs going to eat away the Tesla sales in the future or from the legacy ICE sales?

[StarTrekDoc]

These are current numbers right - aren't we basing the company's potential & stock price on the future?

Since the demographic of Tesla buyers right now are mainly upper middle class folks, you don't think they will switch to other legacy makers when their EVs come out in
full force? How much market share will be taken away from Tesla?

Yes, and that's why I'm still not into TSLA. Totally agree EM is a loose cannon and gambled highly on himself and nearly tanked Tesla the company with only a few weeks worth of cash burn left. It paid off in spades for him. Yes, visual cameras also a high risk/reward and set back autopilot for nearly two years of development and PROBABLY will limit the eventual FSD ceiling. Other tech maybe 'better'. None of it is in mass production. Not even close. NASA has a lot of cool tools too, not getting into our cars any time soon.

Totally agree - people have been waiting...and waiting...and waiting. All the while, Tesla keeps making more and more factories and vehicles, dominating the EV segment, and even competing with ICE vehicles for top 5 slots. It will be VERY interesting to see if/when cybertruck gets going how it competes there directly EV and ICE/Diesel sales.

[fatlittlepig]

Only time will tell if Tesla will get FSD with cameras alone. It's definitely a lot harder of a task than Elon has expected, especially in parts of the country outside California that have varying weather and traffic patterns, hence the missed time frames. They're possibly running V11 in shadow mode now which is supposed to be a big step change in functionality with a single stack, so we'll see how that goes.

I would call the car going from LA to SF impressive if you take a step back. Just say it to yourself, ignoring any Elon time frames. A car drove itself that far without any help aside from charging it. No other car or company can do that, lidar or not. FSD wasn't able to do that a year ago. The newest versions do have the car going through some roundabouts successfully (sure does look scary and shaky though). So progress is being made, slower than Elon suggests, but faster than the people that say it'll never happen. There's going to be steps forwards and backwards, but there's still overall progress.

If on a scale of 1-10, 1 is cruise control, and 10 is fall asleep in your car and the car drives itself to your destination. Tesla's progress is moving from 1.5 to 1.6 to 1.7. they will not be able to make it anywhere near to 10 based on how they have approached the problem. so the people who paid for the full self driving have basically paid for a gimmick where the car can negotiate a local road as you carefully watch it, it's a gimmick. I'm sure the tesla can do highway driving somewhat reasonably (although can you go to sleep?) but driving in downtown oakland is basically an entire different issue.

[Nysoz]

Sure it's a gimmick now. They've moved from 1 to 1.7 in your numbering system, it's still progress. As they get more driving data and compute power with their dojo supercomputer, that should speed up that progress.

Then any smart company will want to advertise their system as a 5-6 and not advertise you being able to sleep in it, even if it reaches the capability of 10 for liability reasons. If/once AI is a better driver than an average human, humans are still on the road as unpredictable and distractable as ever.

[StarTrekDoc]

Exactly. Whatever scale one chooses to employ, Tesla has moved it forward and leads in putting systems into mass production. It's absolutely a work in progress. The autopilot matured immensely over the past four years from where my 15 yo permit teen was equivalent to its system post Mobileye's divorce.

It's matured to where we comfortably drive from onramp to offramp with minimal intervention and does quite well. Only gripe is lane splitting sucks and doesn't play nicely with motorbikes.

[fatlittlepig]

Exactly. Whatever scale one chooses to employ, Tesla has moved it forward and leads in putting systems into mass production. It's absolutely a work in progress. The autopilot matured immensely over the past four years from where my 15 yo permit teen was equivalent to its system post Mobileye's divorce.

It's matured to where we comfortably drive from onramp to offramp with minimal intervention and does quite well. Only gripe is lane splitting sucks and doesn't play nicely with motorbikes.

I'm not referring to highways (that's a cakewalk), I'm referring to driving on Market street during rush hour and suburban roads with either poorly marked lanes, or no lane markings.

[The White Coat Investor]

Tesla has been growing 50%+ since inception, with people doubting them the entire way and a global pandemic. Sure it'll get exponentially more difficult as they keep growing, and that's part of the risk of the company.

Trees don't grow to the sky. But the price of Tesla suggests it will. If it doesn't, investment returns will be poor even if the company does well.

[CordMcNally]

Legacy makers have been trying to come out in full force for years with all the 'Tesla killers'. You can probably go back in all the pages and look for mentions of how the competition is coming from 2018. They all have the same troubles, battery limitations and supply chain issues. Why put limited chips in EVs that lose them money when they need to put those in their ICE cars to make a profit and survive?

They're finally doing now what Tesla did a decade ago and build battery factories with partners but those won't be operational until like 2025.

Once all the supply chain issues are solved, the question will be, are the 'Tesla killer' EVs going to eat away the Tesla sales in the future or from the legacy ICE sales?

Have there been any legitimate Tesla killers? Of all the ones I can think of that have been called that in BuzzFeed headline fashion, most didn't even have an actual product. The Tesla killers will probably come in the form of current car manufacturers. The Ford Lightning will likely be the CyberTruck killer before the CyberTruck gets off the ground. I suspect they'll continue to gain ground (and likely surpass if Elon remains in charge) as the days go by. I've made the statement in the past and I think it still holds true...Elon is a visionary and deserves a lot of respect, but a CEO/leader he is not.

[StarTrekDoc]

I'm not referring to highways (that's a cakewalk), I'm referring to driving on Market street during rush hour and suburban roads with either poorly marked lanes, or no lane markings.

You didn't call out specifics at all. Surface roads in traffic not an issue. That's where it actually excels.

Shortfalls --- poor maintained roads, undivided roads, naked left turns. bike lanes. Pedestrians. --- this is like all humans and especially newly minted teen drivers. That's where FDS is at these situations where you think it's trying to actively kill you --- much like teen drivers.

Still hold true that Tesla systems are quite far advance than other mainstream production systems and many tesla owners who have put their money down understand this and quite okay with it.

[StarTrekDoc]

Have there been any legitimate Tesla killers? Of all the ones I can think of that have been called that in BuzzFeed headline fashion, most didn't even have an actual product. The Tesla killers will probably come in the form of current car manufacturers. The Ford Lightning will likely be the CyberTruck killer before the CyberTruck gets off the ground. I suspect they'll continue to gain ground (and likely surpass if Elon remains in charge) as the days go by. I've made the statement in the past and I think it still holds true...Elon is a visionary and deserves a lot of respect, but a CEO/leader he is not.

Visionary CEO to a visionary/growth company -- Same can be true of FB and Uber and any other significant disruptive company. It's amazing that Bezos transitioned well enough, but he's more exception than rule.

[fatlittlepig]

You didn't call out specifics at all. Surface roads in traffic not an issue. That's where it actually excels.

Shortfalls --- poor maintained roads, undivided roads, naked left turns. bike lanes. Pedestrians. --- this is like all humans and especially newly minted teen drivers. That's where FDS is at these situations where you think it's trying to actively kill you --- much like teen drivers.

Still hold true that Tesla systems are quite far advance than other mainstream production systems and many tesla owners who have put their money down understand this and quite okay with it.

not sure what point you're trying to make. the system basically sucks but is more advanced that other mainstream production systems? (what mainstream production systems claim to be able to drive on surface streets?)

if Tesla ever achieves full self driving in the next 2 years I will take you out to the french laundry.

[CordMcNally]

if Tesla ever chieves full self driving in the next 2 years I will take you out to the french laundry.

In a Tesla? And the Tesla drives the entire way?

[Nysoz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJA6F0w-B9g

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF-XwUTUVII

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AE4Sr47LTM

Here are a few videos. Heavy traffic, then a road at night in Canada without lane markings with lots of stuff happening, then a little through downtown Ann Arbor. Definitely not perfect and needing interventions and some disengagements. You can see the visualizations on the screen and see how much the car picks up with just cameras.

I've never argued that the price of Tesla isn't expensive or hasn't priced in a lot of growth. Part of me holding TSLA is selling covered calls which brings in quite a good deal of premium over time consistently at the risk of capping potential gains which I'm ok with. The current price and P/E ratio prices in a fair amount of future growth of their car business, but not all growth or other ventures. I'm also always looking for signs of weakness such as slowing growth/lower margins then it risk/reward wouldn't be worth it anymore.

Basically every new car seemed to be the next Tesla killer. Don't get me wrong, they're all nice in their own ways, Audi E-tron, Porsche Taycan, Lucid Air, Rivian R1T, Mach-E. The other lesser talked about EVs are nice too like the VW ID3/4, Kia Niro/EV6, Hyundai Kona/Ioniq. The Ford Lightning also has a chance at a great vehicle for sure. But ultimately it comes down to the ability to mass produce the EV and make profits which no one else is really doing.

[StarTrekDoc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJA6F0w-B9g

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF-XwUTUVII

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AE4Sr47LTM

Here are a few videos. Heavy traffic, then a road at night in Canada without lane markings with lots of stuff happening, then a little through downtown Ann Arbor. Definitely not perfect and needing interventions and some disengagements. You can see the visualizations on the screen and see how much the car picks up with just cameras.

I've never argued that the price of Tesla isn't expensive or hasn't priced in a lot of growth. Part of me holding TSLA is selling covered calls which brings in quite a good deal of premium over time consistently at the risk of capping potential gains which I'm ok with. The current price and P/E ratio prices in a fair amount of future growth of their car business, but not all growth or other ventures. I'm also always looking for signs of weakness such as slowing growth/lower margins then it risk/reward wouldn't be worth it anymore.

Basically every new car seemed to be the next Tesla killer. Don't get me wrong, they're all nice in their own ways, Audi E-tron, Porsche Taycan, Lucid Air, Rivian R1T, Mach-E. The other lesser talked about EVs are nice too like the VW ID3/4, Kia Niro/EV6, Hyundai Kona/Ioniq. The Ford Lightning also has a chance at a great vehicle for sure. But ultimately it comes down to the ability to mass produce the EV and make profits which no one else is really doing.

I used to live 1/4 mile from the Ann Arbor VA where the third vid started. That route IS busy and fraught with pedestrians and idiot wolverine students.

Covered calls on TSLA is confidence but hedged. Not going full bore risk instead get those premiums. I just have steered away from options. Too busy playing on the forums

Agree, MachE and ID.4 along with Kia lineup are nice. We almost got the Niro and would get the VW miniEV if it ever gets over here. As you said -- volume. None of these companies have ramped significantly. Kia and VW MAY get there in 2-3 years. They still have a dealership issue to deal with.