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I wonder how many people paid for full self driving and if they will be okay with the fact that it’s never coming.
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Surprisingly a fair number still patiently awaiting -- myself among them. Brother got the beta and liking it pretty good -- still a few years away from prime time for sure.Originally posted by fatlittlepig View Post
Dug up some Q1 sales figures: All in Top 4 and increase capture of segment market share. Tesla keeps eating each segment's lunch, irrespective of EV/ICE. There certainly is more competition on the horizon with VW and Kia, but they have a lot of distance to cover.
US midsized car sales 2022-Q1Midsized segment 2022-Q1 2021-Q1 Change 2022 Share 2021 Share 1 Toyota Camry 61.505 78.151 -21% 20,6% 22,4% 2 Honda Accord 42.039 46.591 -10% 14,1% 13,4% 3 Tesla Model 3 (est.) 40.200 23.110 74% 13,4% 6,6%
Large car segment 2022-Q1 2021-Q1 Change 2022 Share 2021 Share 1 Dodge Charger 15.439 19.740 -22% 28,3% 28,8% 2 Tesla Model S (est.) 11.500 4.155 177% 21,0% 6,1% 3 BMW 5-series 5.645 6.433 -12% 10,3% 9,4% 4 Mercedes-Benz E-class 4.731 8.199 -42% 8,7% 12,0% 5 Cadillac CT5 3.343 4.374 -24% 6,1% 6,4% 6 Nissan Maxima 2.869 4.807 -40% 5,2% 7,0% 7 Chrysler 300 2.745 5.394 -49% 5,0% 7,9% 8 Toyota Avalon 2.155 5.136 -58% 3,9% 7,5% 9 Porsche Taycan 1.925 2.008 -4% 386,5% 338,0% Compact SUV segment 2022-Q1 2021-Q1 Change 2022 Share 2021 Share 1 Toyota RAV4 101.192 114.255 -11% 12,6% 12,4% 2 Honda CR-V 58.579 93.766 -38% 7,3% 10,2% 3 Chevrolet Equinox 56.036 63.218 -11% 7,0% 6,9% 4 Tesla Model Y (est.) 55.000 33.629 64% 6,9% 3,7% Comment
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Let’s check back in 3 months and see where the stock price is at. My point is there is realistic competitor in EV space now at all of their price points, which realistically didn’t exist a couple years ago.Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View PostComment
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Comparing Tesla to other OEMs is a fallacy as they're different business models. In Q1, Tesla delivered 310k cars, operating income of $3.6B. Ford delivered 966k vehicles wholesale, operating income from making the cars $419M, $924M from Ford credit for a total of $1.34B.
Tesla's operating income is around $11.6k per car, Ford's is $433 from the actual manufacturing per car, $1400 if you include the financing. Even if you take out the regulatory credits it's still over $10k per car made for Tesla.
Ford https://s23.q4cdn.com/799033206/file...SE-Q1-2022.pdf
Tesla https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/I...-Update.pdf%22
Tesla should make around 12-15 eps this year from 1.4M cars as long as there's no more shanghai lockdowns and disruptions to their supply chain. With current stock price, that's a p/e ratio of 44-55.
Where Tesla's valuation comes into play is future growth and assumptions. Tesla aims to grow 50% annually for the foreseeable future. As production and deliveries grow, sourcing parts/materials locally and not having to ship cars across continents with localized P/D, efficiency and profit goes up even more.
2023 Tesla should deliver around 2.2M cars for around 20-25 eps or a forward p/e ratio of 26-33. As much as I love Costco, their P/E ratio now is 35.
Where people get too excited is extrapolating this to 2025 and 2030 then discount back with various models and get crazy high valuations for the future and expected share price now. How much is the market willing to pay for this possible future growth and any optionality of their energy or AI possibilities is the billion/trillion dollar question.
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As for FSD, it's not perfect or ready by any means. It's been next year for the past many years as promised by Elon. Will he be right this time or not?
https://teslanorth.com/2022/04/11/wa...keovers-video/
There's a video of someone using FSD beta to go from LA to San Francisco. 400 miles, 6 hours of driving without disengagements except for him charging the car. It's definitely making progress. Not ready for all areas or situations by any means, but progress is being made.
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Also talking about competitors is fine. There's more than enough EV sales to go around as they eat into ICE sales. The reality is that every EV made is being sold with long wait lines. Ford stopped taking reservations for their Mach E and Lightning because the waits are too long. For the nearish future, competition is more about ability to scale production rather than the customer choosing a Ford or Mercedes over the Tesla.Comment
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“Global sales of electric cars hit 6. 6 million in 2021, making up 8.6% of all new car sales, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). That's more than double the market share from 2020, and up enormously from EVs' ”
”Tesla is a growth stock that's part everything --- manufacturing, energy, financial. ” Oh, a conglomerate. This is why business segment is required in financial statements. MDA focuses on this.
Related to segments, where do the rank in vehicle sales?
Where do the rank as a manufacturing company?
Where do they rank as an energy company?
Where do they rank as a financial company?
A conglomerate strategy is really diversification.
Vertical integration is efficiency. Which is it? Profit
Margins by business segment and growth projections needed. Electric energy companies are historically regulated, low margin (utility stocks). Why is this different this time? New? I see no reason it will follow a path differently long term.
What makes them different? They are way smaller volumes and spent a ton of money being first to market. If I recall correctly, they strategically decided against intellectual property.
Oh, by the way, Tesla’s market share of the EV market dropped. All to Ford. (MachE).
Big fish in a small pond.
They will likely be a little fish in a big pond in 5 or 10 years. Actually, they still are in terms of total volume. Not one model cracked the top 10.
Maybe, or maybe never.
The hope is they will be the largest vehicle company? They could. Paying a high premium for a innovative story stock.
Just an alternate view to consider.
We have seen this movie before. Computers and microchips.
From the volume scales, the approach is similar to the Wall Street approach. 1Q, 2Q this year/next year. The discussion of the “dealership” channel is so yesterday. The movie played before also. Dell and Gateway were the “innovators”. Customer direct sales vs buying from a brick and mortar store. No different. It is still manufactured and delivered. Circuit City and Sears no longer sell PC’s.Comment
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Growing 50% annually is completely ludicrous and is a cathie wood level predictionOriginally posted by Nysoz View Post
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Weren't they a few years away...a few years ago?Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post
It's fun to look at his predictions from Wikipedia:
December 2015: Complete autonomy by 2018
End of 2016: Full autonomy by end of 2017
April 2017: Prediction in around two years drivers would be able to sleep in their vehicles
2018: Full autonomy by end of 2019
February 2019: FSD would be "feature complete" by the end of 2019
January 2020: FSD would be "feature complete" by the end of 2019 but said feature complete "doesn't mean that features are working well"
Early 2021: Full autonomy by end of 2021
Is he a liar, incompetent, or does he not understand what his engineers are telling him? A combination of all of them?Last edited by CordMcNally; 05-26-2022, 06:10 AM.Comment
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Tesla has been growing 50%+ since inception, with people doubting them the entire way and a global pandemic. Sure it'll get exponentially more difficult as they keep growing, and that's part of the risk of the company. But this is also where their efficiency in manufacturing, building factories, managing supply chain come into play.
https://www.statista.com/chart/8547/...es-since-2012/
Going forward, they're expanding their Shanghai factory, ramping up the Berlin factory, and in Austin they have the world's largest factory by volume being finalized. Then they're scouting areas for new factories now.
Despite growing production this much, Tesla's market share is going down, that's fair. But it's hard for market share to go anywhere except down when you start at 50-80%+. I'm pretty sure I've made the argument multiple times but market share doesn't matter if you're selling every car you can make.
Regarding "feature complete", the bulls will argue that FSD beta is feature complete now. It does everything a car needs to do to get from point A to B. It doesn't do it perfectly every time in every scenario, that's for certain. But it does have the features and capabilities to get there as evidenced by the video above.Last edited by Nysoz; 05-26-2022, 07:00 AM.Comment
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CordMcNally A clock is right twice a dayOriginally posted by CordMcNally View Post
he's doing something right being the richest dude in the world by betting on himself.
fatlittlepig The car is great. driving features lead the industry. Fsd may not be true across the nation. The autopilot functions are arguably the best there is and I'm quite happy with it at both the basic and advanced levels. FSD haven't gotten yet since I'm too aggressive per Tesla's beta requirements.
Panscan - Your contention competition is stiff. Tesla is selling everything it can and continues to do so. As for the company stock and its pricing.... Again don't own now nor plan to own directly throughout this.
Nysoz - Yes, Tesla hasn't even fully pulled on the financing arm of sales through leasing either to consumer or rental companies. Hertz bought them on the open market. For the near future growth will be high I'm sure of it as the EV market will only continue to grow and only Tesla has the infrastructure (and correct sales model) to scale in significant volume vs sell old tech ICE vehicles.
Is it a great car and will it continue to be the primary EV maker and leader? Yes.
Will it be enough to support the lofty PE now and into the future? I don't think so; hence I didn't own early nor now.
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We own a Tesla. I absolutely do not trust the FSD outside of highway driving. It's quite good on highways - I trust it to get me from at least the on-ramp to the next off-ramp, and it can navigate transitions between highways quite well - but city driving is a nightmare. Around turns, intersections, crosswalks... if you were watching the car move, you would think the driver was drunk, distracted, new to driving, or all three.Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
Touting that the car made it from LA to SF without any corrections is not terribly impressive - that's over 99% highway miles. Also, regarding corrections... it's possible that the Tesla would eventually make the correct moves while we drive around our city, but I'm not going to wait the extra 5-15 seconds it takes for the car to figure out the next right motion at various intersections. Oh and we have a traffic circle near our house, which it once tried to drive directly over. Forget about it.
I'm anticipating that it will either get better over time, albeit on a delayed schedule, or I'll get a check from a class-action lawsuit.Comment
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1. This is not true. Demand or cars is not a given nor spread evenlyOriginally posted by Nysoz View PostTesla has been growing 50%+ since inception, with people doubting them the entire way and a global pandemic. Sure it'll get exponentially more difficult as they keep growing, and that's part of the risk of the company. But this is also where their efficiency in manufacturing, building factories, managing supply chain come into play.
I'm pretty sure I've made the argument multiple times but market share doesn't matter if you're selling every car you can make.
2. How accurate is their demand forecasting?
3. As you indicated, factories are built with capacities.
The trick is to balance production and have vehicles available when needed. Practical capacity. Sure there is stuff you can do. One shift or three shifts?
The overhead is the same. Managing supply/demand and practical production capacity is the job of a magician.
The assumption of unlimited demand is a mistake. They already did previously shut down Fremont for a number of months.
Once you build up the fixed costs, any misalignment gets to be very very expensive.
Assuming unlimited order backlog and matching the production to the order flow continuously is not the real world.
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Musk is a smart person but at times he is stubborn to the point of being stupid. And does not want to admit his mistakes and say he was wrong earlier on.Originally posted by SpacemanSpiff12 View Post
He has this stupid notion that FSD can be achieved by the use of cameras alone. Anyone who has driven a Tesla knows that these cameras get blinded suddenly by strong direct sunlight or heavy rain and you get notifications and sometimes the autopilot is temporarily disabled. And these are low resolution camera compared to some EV's from China. He had radar in cars but removed it because he felt it was not needed ( stupid cost cutting). And felt that Lidar was too bulky, expensive and dorky ( Waymo) when he should have known that Lidar would become small and inexpensive as time goes on. The start up Luminar Technologies can manufacture small Lidar for $500-1000 and in bulk production of millions it will be even cheaper.
If he can just accept it, buy Luminar or another competing Lidar company and put in Lidars, radar and better video cameras the FSD is easier to achieve. The total costs might be <2K per car and with FSD being 10K and the cars costing 50-75K each, this is a small investment. But no, he has dug himself in a hole that he can't or won't get out.
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To be fair, that's usually my first instinct, too.Originally posted by SpacemanSpiff12 View PostComment
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People who are involved in the development of self driving cars think the notion that Tesla will reach autonomous driving is a total joke. Watch the FSD beta videos on youtube, it's a total joke and a gimmick. I mean has tesla even solved the minor problem of cars running into stationary objects on the freeway? He's dug himself in a hole and it will be interesting how long he can drag it out. Of the major players in the space, Tesla is probably dead last by a large margin.Comment
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Only time will tell if Tesla will get FSD with cameras alone. It's definitely a lot harder of a task than Elon has expected, especially in parts of the country outside California that have varying weather and traffic patterns, hence the missed time frames. They're possibly running V11 in shadow mode now which is supposed to be a big step change in functionality with a single stack, so we'll see how that goes.
I would call the car going from LA to SF impressive if you take a step back. Just say it to yourself, ignoring any Elon time frames. A car drove itself that far without any help aside from charging it. No other car or company can do that, lidar or not. FSD wasn't able to do that a year ago. The newest versions do have the car going through some roundabouts successfully (sure does look scary and shaky though). So progress is being made, slower than Elon suggests, but faster than the people that say it'll never happen. There's going to be steps forwards and backwards, but there's still overall progress.Comment
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