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  • Originally posted by GIMD View Post
    It's been 2 years since I last read this thread or touched TSLA stocks. I wonder how's everyone doing? I'm starting to buy small position of TSLA as it's dropping.
    That’s an immensely bold move to do after the last two years of absolute insanity.

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    • Originally posted by Panscan View Post

      That’s an immensely bold move to do after the last two years of absolute insanity.
      It's just a part of my play money so not substantial enough to worry about. I plan to buy the stock as it's coming down since I do believe in the future of the company.

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      • Originally posted by GIMD View Post

        It's just a part of my play money so not substantial enough to worry about. I plan to buy the stock as it's coming down since I do believe in the future of the company.
        I'm not sure the future of the company and the current stock price are completely related.

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        • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

          I'm not sure the future of the company and the current stock price are completely related.
          It's not but you got to start somewhere since I have no idea what the right price would be. My trigger to buy was when the S&P hit bear market territory last Friday. I bought not only TSLA but also other stocks that I like.

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          • Originally posted by GIMD View Post

            It's not but you got to start somewhere since I have no idea what the right price would be. My trigger to buy was when the S&P hit bear market territory last Friday. I bought not only TSLA but also other stocks that I like.
            Like shooting fish in a barrel, bottom fishing, just a hobby you enjoy.
            You do not have to start. You can and have a hobby.
            Carry on.

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            • Holding TSLA has been frustrating for sure, but selling CC on it makes it hurt slightly less. I heard something the other day that resonated with me. Just basically forget where stock and index valuations have been for the past 2 years and reset your thinking about what companies are worth.

              TSLA and other companies/indexes are undergoing a revaluation and time will tell where that ends. For TSLA valuation it depends on how well they execute on their growth/margins and what the market will pay for that. Tesla is still growing and making a lot of money for their auto manufacturing. Any hint of a recession that causes them to sell fewer cars or lower margins will hurt that narrative for the short term. The other big parts of the company such as energy and AI are just essentially lotto tickets for 5-10 years in the future and shouldn't be relied on anytime soon.

              Definitely a high risk high reward company to hold and not for the faint of heart, especially if your time horizon isn't years.

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              • Concentration and leverage work miracles going up. The math is the same on the way down.
                Diversification works the opposite.
                Story stocks don’t always have happy endings.

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                • How much revenue per sale of each car and how many cars do they have to sell per year to justify their valuation ?

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                  • Originally posted by Random1 View Post
                    How much revenue per sale of each car and how many cars do they have to sell per year to justify their valuation ?
                    I think Tesla is going to be the Iphone of EVs so I'm going to use Apple valuation as a point of reference. Using the recent March earnings from Google Finance, quick calculation:

                    Apple: 97B revenue (up 8% Y/Y), 25% profit margin (down 2% Y/Y), 57% mobile phone market share in US, current market cap/revenue = 23.4
                    Tesla: 18.7 revenue (up 80% Y/Y), 17% profit margin (up 319% Y/Y), 2.5 % automobile market share in US, current market cap/revenue = 36.4

                    Given Tesla's rapidly expanding revenues, profit margin from economy of scale, and tons of room for growth in the near future, I think the current valuation of 1.5x more than Apple per $ of revenue is more than reasonable.

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                    • The fact that this is the only thread on the forum discussing an individual stock tells you everything you need to know about the stock being discussed and whether you should invest in it. At the end of the day, you buy stocks for the earnings. Ford trades at a PE of 10. GM trades at a PE of 5. Toyota trades at a PE of 9. Tesla trades (after a 50% drop in value) at a PE of 91.

                      There's an awful lot of growth priced in that may or may not happen. Are you really willing to pay 10 times as much for a dollar of Tesla earnings as a dollar of Toyota earnings? They both spend the same.
                      Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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                      • Originally posted by The White Coat Investor View Post
                        The fact that this is the only thread on the forum discussing an individual stock tells you everything you need to know about the stock being discussed and whether you should invest in it. At the end of the day, you buy stocks for the earnings. Ford trades at a PE of 10. GM trades at a PE of 5. Toyota trades at a PE of 9. Tesla trades (after a 50% drop in value) at a PE of 91.

                        There's an awful lot of growth priced in that may or may not happen. Are you really willing to pay 10 times as much for a dollar of Tesla earnings as a dollar of Toyota earnings? They both spend the same.
                        People also compare the P/E of the US market to international and favor international but that hasn't seemed to work out recently. I believe CM is 100% international because he feels P/Es are too high. I agree I wouldn't buy Tesla in part cause of that but it seems like bogleheads are supposed to basically ignore P/E right?

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                        • Tesla is a growth stock that's part everything --- manufacturing, energy, financial. Yes, PE high and betting on the future growth. It's max'd out on production with a waiting list despite two fully operational plants. third is ramping up and #4+5 at about to start. It's the ONLY player in the EV segment that's producing at volume AND profitable with each unit produced without incentives.
                          #1 Model 3 Tesla, Inc. 500,713 814,000
                          #2 Hong Guang MINI EV SAIC-GM-Wuling Motors 424,138 500,000
                          #3 Model Y Tesla, Inc. 410,517 504,778
                          #4 ID.4 Volkswagen Group 121,631 125,184
                          VW is producing at significantly lower numbers and Tesla only going to widen this gap with 2.5 factories ramping up in 2022-23.

                          Also Tesla not saddled with legacy dealerships. This is a huge drag and tesla has the modern internet era sales model setup nicely.

                          So, I don't think TSLA is going to do poorly compared to the rest of the auto industry. Do I own it? Still haven't. Passed at the ground level and didn't get on the way up. Oh well.

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                          • Investing in international is essentially a bet on the US dollar. PE doesn't really matter. There are landmines in investing in international like different regulations, taxes, and political risk that weigh down ex-US.

                            Ben Hunt had a good piece on MacGuffins (here is the wikipedia article on it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MacGuffin). I sometimes think that the FSD is the MacGuffin. Or the robotaxi. Or the cybertruck. Or the electrified semi truck. Or or or... missed promises galore.

                            But- people do love the product and their margins are good per unit. And it's one of the most traded names, so the volatility and liquidity make it fun for people (less so, now). So, if you want to start a position in a high flying name during a compressing cycle, fine. As with anything- know thyself.

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                            • Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post
                              Tesla is a growth stock that's part everything --- manufacturing, energy, financial. Yes, PE high and betting on the future growth. It's max'd out on production with a waiting list despite two fully operational plants. third is ramping up and #4+5 at about to start. It's the ONLY player in the EV segment that's producing at volume AND profitable with each unit produced without incentives.
                              #1 Model 3 Tesla, Inc. 500,713 814,000
                              #2 Hong Guang MINI EV SAIC-GM-Wuling Motors 424,138 500,000
                              #3 Model Y Tesla, Inc. 410,517 504,778
                              #4 ID.4 Volkswagen Group 121,631 125,184
                              VW is producing at significantly lower numbers and Tesla only going to widen this gap with 2.5 factories ramping up in 2022-23.

                              Also Tesla not saddled with legacy dealerships. This is a huge drag and tesla has the modern internet era sales model setup nicely.

                              So, I don't think TSLA is going to do poorly compared to the rest of the auto industry. Do I own it? Still haven't. Passed at the ground level and didn't get on the way up. Oh well.
                              They will have little to no future growth relative to rest of EV space. There are only so many EV to go around and sooner or later fraud self driving is going to get the reckoning it deserves. Competing with chevy volts is a diff situation than taycan and eqs.

                              It has no chance.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Panscan View Post

                                They will have little to no future growth relative to rest of EV space. There are only so many EV to go around and sooner or later fraud self driving is going to get the reckoning it deserves. Competing with chevy volts is a diff situation than taycan and eqs.

                                It has no chance.

                                Registrations* in the US - Q1 2022:
                                • Tesla: 113,882 (up 59%) and 21.8% share
                                • BMW: 80,482 (down 3%)
                                • Lexus: 66,907 (down 17%)
                                • Mercedes-Benz: 60,632 (down 21%)
                                • Audi: 37,566 (down 37%)
                                • Cadillac: 29,840 (down %)
                                • Acura: 29,260 (down 26%)
                                • Volvo: 23,513 (down 20%)
                                • Lincoln: 19,977 (down 29%)
                                • Land Rover: 15,581 (down 39%)
                                • Porsche: 13,262 (down 24%)
                                • Genesis: 12,549 (up 53%)
                                • Infiniti: 11,740 (down 43%)
                                • Alfa Romeo: 3,542 (down 32%)
                                • Jaguar: 2,610 (down 36%)
                                Specifically:
                                Mercedes-Benz sold 2,091 all-electric EQS during the period, which is slightly more than the Porsche Taycan (1,925).


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