Tesla, the investment

[Brains428]

I do sort of wonder if someone behind the scenes is tapping his shoulder to sell because of the overall size of Tesla in the SP, as well as the percentage of call options that exist. Maybe they're asking him to sell to allow for the stock to drop to "appropriate" weighting and reduce overall systemic risk. As alluded to in the thread Tim posted- the derivatives market is massive and a lot of premium is held up in bullish TSLA options. It doesn't look like an organic unwind is going to happen because of BTFD mantras and a blind eye to negative earnings call for all companies (minus PLTN).

Not sure when Pelosi's options expire, so it would be interesting to see her filings and if she (or her husband) sells before Elon does.

Just a tin foil hat theory. Monday AM TSLA, SPX, and VIX will be interesting to see.

[Tim]

I do sort of wonder if someone behind the scenes is tapping his shoulder to sell because of the overall size of Tesla in the SP, as well as the percentage of call options that exist. Maybe they're asking him to sell to allow for the stock to drop to "appropriate" weighting and reduce overall systemic risk. As alluded to in the thread Tim posted- the derivatives market is massive and a lot of premium is held up in bullish TSLA options. It doesn't look like an organic unwind is going to happen because of BTFD mantras and a blind eye to negative earnings call for all companies (minus PLTN).

Not sure when Pelosi's options expire, so it would be interesting to see her filings and if she (or her husband) sells before Elon does.

Just a tin foil hat theory. Monday AM TSLA, SPX, and VIX will be interesting to see.

I have been critical of Elon Musk's bravado before. However, I do want to applaud a $6B donation using Twitter to coax out a plan. Sure, taxes may have motivated him, but making lemonade out of lemons he seems to have been creative.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-gave-more-than-5-million-tesla-shares-to-charity-after-teasing-possible-donation-to-fight-world-hunger-11644885144?siteid=yhoof2

Props to Elon, without any reservations handling his personal taxes.

[White.Beard.Doc]

The NY Times is about to release their documentary expose on Musk and the fallacy of Tesla autopilot. I wonder about the repercussions of the word getting out that full self driving with an occupant sleeping and waking up at their destination exists only in Musk's dreams.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/NYT-Presents/elon-musk-tesla-autopilot.html

[Tim]

The NY Times is about to release their documentary expose on Musk and the fallacy of Tesla autopilot. I wonder about the repercussions of the word getting out that full self driving with an occupant sleeping and waking up at their destination exists only in Musk's dreams.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/N...autopilot.html

Is there a possibility that everything “Musk” will be attacked ? Did not read the article, I for one discounted about everything Musk as mostly promotional. The “Twitter” thing has upset a ton of powerful people.

[xraygoggles]

If Elon's antics turn away Democrats & women, who is left to buy a Tesla? Lol.

[Kamban]

The NY Times is about to release their documentary expose on Musk and the fallacy of Tesla autopilot. I wonder about the repercussions of the word getting out that full self driving with an occupant sleeping and waking up at their destination exists only in Musk's dreams.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/N...autopilot.html

I see similarities between the full self driving and new oncology drugs. The new drugs are believed by the public and media to tbe magic bullet to wipe out cancer. It shows tremendous promise in small clinical trials. In real life after approval the efficacy is not what was claimed ( or rather, expected in the minds of the laymen). The drug gets almost rejected but over time we see that the drug is neither the magic bullet nor is it totally worthless. It is in between, just as what oncologists have known all along.

FSD is just like that. But NYT is a fool thinking otherwise. I suspect the rag has an agenda just like Musk has an agenda.

[Kamban]

If Elon's antics turn away Democrats & women, who is left to buy a Tesla? Lol.

I suspect you are making a tongue in cheek comment. Tesla is not able to produce enough cars to meet the demand. I don't think the NYT expose will make a dent in its sales. There are so many EVs that come out as Tesla killers - Rivian, Lucid, Plestar, Ioniq, Kia EV, Mach-e, BMW's sorry offering, forgettable ones from Audi and Jaguar and the list goes on and on. I think there is vW somewhere in there.

And yet, Tesla is still on top.

[Tim]

I suspect you are making a tongue in cheek comment. Tesla is not able to produce enough cars to meet the demand. I don't think the NYT expose will make a dent in its sales. There are so many EVs that come out as Tesla killers - Rivian, Lucid, Plestar, Ioniq, Kia EV, Mach-e, BMW's sorry offering, forgettable ones from Audi and Jaguar and the list goes on and on. I think there is vW somewhere in there.

And yet, Tesla is still on top.

Depends upon how you define top.

https://www.wonderslist.com/best-selling-car-models/

https://evannex.com/blogs/news/competition-looming-tesla-still-dominates-top-10-best-selling-evs-in-2022

[burritos]

If Elon's antics turn away Democrats & women, who is left to buy a Tesla? Lol.

Chinese people.

[Nysoz]

Companies and individuals that have made controversial statements still have products that are used by the other side. I don't think this will harm sales since there's still a 3-8+ month wait time for new Teslas depending on options and region. With that said, Elon has said the accusation is false. So it's a he said she said and now he's forming a "hardcore litigation department" to aggressively fight all these negative articles for better or worse.

Yes, it depends on how you define top. Tesla still has 75-80% of the US EV market share and growing total sales 50%+ annually while maintaining exceptional profit and operating margins in a global pan/endemic and supply chain issues.

Recently, I think the market has repriced a lot of these high flying tech stocks that have high P/E ratios, TSLA included. Despite all the headlines around Elon and Twitter, Tesla the company is still chugging along, growing and making a lot of money. They're increasing their production line shifts in Shanghai after the lockdown and also planning an expansion to increase production there another 450k cars annually. The Berlin factory is delivering cars and now the Austin one is giving local customers to opt in for the 4680 structural model Y.

FSD beta continues to make slow progress, impressing in some areas but still a far ways off for robotaxi use.

My main concern is if a true recession/depression occurs and people stop buying cars. If growth or margins show sustained decreases I'll re-evaluate whether or not I want to stay invested. Until then I'm still in and selling my covered calls.

[Panscan]

Litigation stuff is totally unhinged. He is self imploding in real time and it will hurt the business which is already facing gigantic headwinds with market share set to dwindle. Look out below.

also as Silicon Valley/tech implodes, Tesla will go with it. It’s another example of peak discretionary spending.

[Zaphod]

Main concern if things reprice AND tech sector in general gets beaten up, hiring slows there, options are worthless etc...this is the natural tesla buyer and could result in slowing sales, which a potentially nasty, instant repricing could occur.

[xraygoggles]

Companies and individuals that have made controversial statements still have products that are used by the other side. I don't think this will harm sales since there's still a 3-8+ month wait time for new Teslas depending on options and region. With that said, Elon has said the accusation is false. So it's a he said she said and now he's forming a "hardcore litigation department" to aggressively fight all these negative articles for better or worse.

Yes, it depends on how you define top. Tesla still has 75-80% of the US EV market share and growing total sales 50%+ annually while maintaining exceptional profit and operating margins in a global pan/endemic and supply chain issues.

Recently, I think the market has repriced a lot of these high flying tech stocks that have high P/E ratios, TSLA included. Despite all the headlines around Elon and Twitter, Tesla the company is still chugging along, growing and making a lot of money. They're increasing their production line shifts in Shanghai after the lockdown and also planning an expansion to increase production there another 450k cars annually. The Berlin factory is delivering cars and now the Austin one is giving local customers to opt in for the 4680 structural model Y.

FSD beta continues to make slow progress, impressing in some areas but still a far ways off for robotaxi use.

My main concern is if a true recession/depression occurs and people stop buying cars. If growth or margins show sustained decreases I'll re-evaluate whether or not I want to stay invested. Until then I'm still in and selling my covered calls.

The company can be growing & strong af, but the stock price can still be overvalued. They are two disparate thoughts.

The stock price of TSLA is kinda analogous to bitcoin (in this one narrow way): there is a lot of narrative & fanboy-ism embedded into the price. If the narrative shifts, whether through Elon's behavior, or through macro/economic conditions, then it could drop much more than you might think.

[GIMD]

It's been 2 years since I last read this thread or touched TSLA stocks. I wonder how's everyone doing? I'm starting to buy small position of TSLA as it's dropping.

[fatlittlepig]

Problem is, it seems that EM is surrounded by yes men and no one is there to serve as a check.