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  • Nysoz
    replied
    Originally posted by Lordosis View Post
    What is going to be the rate limiting step in making EVs? Probably the Batteries but what part? Time to make them? Time to mine materials?

    I am hopeful that EV will be the future but ICE will be here for a long time if not forever. It is still the rare EV I see in my area. Rural areas take much longer to adapt anyway and it is much more common to be far from Service centers and charging stations and have longer commutes in general. I know plenty of people who drive 100 miles a day easy. I know the range is better then that on most cars but feeling like you have to fill up every day will give people anxiety.
    From Tesla's last earnings call, Elon was calling out for people to efficiently mine more ethically sourced nickel. So I'm assuming the minerals/materials is the rate limiting step. Once there's an abundance of that, companies can create more battery lines and then more EVs/other applications. The other OEMs will soon realize how hard it is to scale EVs because of the battery limitation. When Tesla was first starting, back of napkin math for the amount of EVs they wanted to make took more batteries than the world's capacity at the time. That's why they built their first gigafactory.

    Range anxiety is real at first, but once you realize you start the day with a 'full tank' every day it becomes way more convenient for day to day driving. If that person drives 100 miles a day, figure out the fuel costs with them. My work commute is 40 miles round trip and I'm saving around $200 a month in gas vs electricity. Combine that with maintenance savings of no oil changes, no brakes to replace, it's just cheaper to operate after the initial purchase.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nysoz
    replied
    Originally posted by Tim View Post
    Flip comment but half way serious.
    How do you dispose of used batteries?
    Does anyone take used flashlight batteries to the hazardous waste disposal center?
    When are we going to have permanent disposal facilities for radioactive waste?
    I think vehicles will be mixed. Just like gas or electric stoves.
    You can recycle the batteries. Tesla's original CTO started up a company (Redwood Materials) to do so and recently amazon invested in them. Also, when batteries aren't good enough for EVs, you can re-purpose them into energy storage battery farms.

    People recycle and dispose of things when there's a financial incentive to do so. A car battery is like $7.5-10k or so now. Even when they're worth less due to progression, people (maybe not the individual themselves) will have incentive to sell them to recycling companies for $500 or some other figure.

    I agree that vehicles will be mixed, but the question will be percentage of all vehicles and percentage of new sales. Just with any new technical revolution, there's going to a curve of adoption. Horses to cars, landline phones to cell phones, home computers. For EVs, it'll come down to safety, ease of charging, upfront and overall life of vehicle cost. Also until battery tech gets much much better, ICE will still be needed for some purposes and areas.

    CordMcNally

    Battery and upfront vehicle costs are going to come down as the tech improves. In the next 10 years, if battery costs keep going down and energy densities continue to improve, an EV will cost the same as an ICE vehicle up front and cost way less to maintain. The charging issue will be a problem for those that depend on street parking for sure. Parking garages and workplaces can install charging infrastructure for people which can help.

    Who knows how long the curve of adoption will take. From random googling, it took 10 years for cars replace horses and bicycles as the primary mode of transportation. Of course, there's going to be some similarities and some differences in the comparison.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lordosis
    replied
    What is going to be the rate limiting step in making EVs? Probably the Batteries but what part? Time to make them? Time to mine materials?

    I am hopeful that EV will be the future but ICE will be here for a long time if not forever. It is still the rare EV I see in my area. Rural areas take much longer to adapt anyway and it is much more common to be far from Service centers and charging stations and have longer commutes in general. I know plenty of people who drive 100 miles a day easy. I know the range is better then that on most cars but feeling like you have to fill up every day will give people anxiety.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    My guess is it'll be over-hyped and under-delivered, kind of like the stock price.

    ICE vehicles will be around for a lot longer than people think. There's too much of the population that can't afford the upfront costs and that don't have access to easy charging.
    Flip comment but half way serious.
    How do you dispose of used batteries?
    Does anyone take used flashlight batteries to the hazardous waste disposal center?
    When are we going to have permanent disposal facilities for radioactive waste?
    I think vehicles will be mixed. Just like gas or electric stoves.

    Leave a comment:


  • CordMcNally
    replied
    Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
    Well battery day/shareholder meeting is tomorrow after trading hours. It's probably the most hyped up event in some time in Tesla history. By Elon (supposed to be mind blowing and big and he even knows what's going on), analysts (traditional and other), and by a 35% increase from recent lows. Seems to be holding (and going) up in the premarket despite the indexes being down.

    I'm not sure what they can present that will live up to the hype, but going to probably lay out a plan for the end of ICE vehicles. It may not be in the next 3-5 years, but maybe the next 10-20 years where the majority of new vehicle sales will be EVs if they're able to scale battery production like they want to. Once battery costs decrease more and more, all it'll take is 'financial gurus' to hop on the train saying that it's just much cheaper to buy and own an EV rather than an ICE in the long run. If this really does happen, it'll be interesting to see what'll happen to multiple industries: car dealerships, repair places, oil change places, the supply chain for ICE parts, used car lots, gas stations.
    My guess is it'll be over-hyped and under-delivered, kind of like the stock price.

    ICE vehicles will be around for a lot longer than people think. There's too much of the population that can't afford the upfront costs and that don't have access to easy charging.

    Leave a comment:

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