Tesla, the investment

[Brains428]

Monday after Elon SNL, TSLA finishes at 623 and continuing on the downtrend AH. Problems in China and Germany, Cybertruck probably delayed, pending more crash investigation. My guess is it would have to get below 550 to really unwind (563 being the post SP500 inclusion low).

Other things going on- Cathie Wood of ARK saying Hwang was an early investor in the fund. Unknown if the recent Archegos blow up is related or unrelated.

[Brains428]

https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-...management-llc

Michael Burry's asset management has a 40% of it's capital in long puts against TSLA. Something around 8000 contracts of unknown value.

[Nysoz]

I think the China and Germany issues were overblown, just like any other Tesla news like the car crash in Texas.

540-550 has some support from the last dip but the share price is hurting from macro issues. The run up to 900 was clearly overbought and time will tell if this dip to 560 is oversold or not.

Tesla is still selling every car it makes and is still ramping up production quickly. Q2 production is reportedly all spoken for a few weeks ago. Every other manufacturer is having trouble getting chips for cars and supposedly Tesla doesn’t have any issues or much issues. Q2 delivery numbers will tell early July.

The refreshed model s should be starting deliveries June (Elon time) and should help change sentiment as well as provide some high margin profit for q2.

As long as macro fears doesn’t continue to weigh down on tech q2 or q3 numbers/earnings should find decent recovery. Overall the long term plan still hasn’t changed.

As for the Michael burry trade, he also kept increasing his short position in December. So he could’ve lost a lot on the way up to 900 (with unlimited potential loss) and that could be why he switched to puts (defined potential loss)?

[CordMcNally]

540-550 has some support from the last dip but the share price is hurting from macro issues. The run up to 900 was clearly overbought and time will tell if this dip to 560 is oversold or not.

As long as macro fears doesn’t continue to weigh down on tech q2 or q3 numbers/earnings should find decent recovery. Overall the long term plan still hasn’t changed.

Is Elon considered a macro issue?

[Nysoz]

TSLA essentially mirrored the tqqq like it usually does on macro days.

Im sure Elon drives people crazy and some days I want someone to him to get off the Twitter. But saying this drop is due to a Twitter fight is also blaming a $5k drop in btc on him too (which it could be or the whole tether thing which belongs in a different thread).

[Tim]

With respect please consider this:
"Overall the long term plan still hasn’t changed."
I find this amusing. The story hasn't changed, the plan has definitely been through many many revisions.

"I think the China and Germany issues were overblown, just like any other Tesla news like the car crash in Texas."
Have monthly production and sales numbers been released? I am not blaming Tesla for the Texas crash. It seems like a high tech car would shut off with no one in the driver's seat. The guy was in the seat according to surveillance video. Any resolution? The messaging is consistent. Everything according to plan I guess.
They had to update because cars were not selling. Six months is a big miss. Maybe things will work out. Ford has its EV F-150 announced. My point is that manufacturing issues and product issues are very important to Tesla. The EV competition is coming. Misfires, over promising and under delivering are becoming Tesla's reputation. I don't see one real issue being solved.

[Nysoz]

I guess it depends on your definition of long term plan. I’m looking 4-5 years down the road so those goals are still intact. Sure short term plans have to revised as they have to pivot with issues as they come up like changing microprocessors with the chip shortage or covid.

Tesla hasn’t revised their delivery goals yet and their goal is average 50% growth over the next 5-10 years. Ford says they may have to cut production by 50% in q2. Tesla usually releases quarterly numbers a day or two after the quarter so probably July 2 morning to capture that trading day.

Competition has been coming for years still. VW is the main one that’s trying to compete with volume production. The Chinese companies are working hard too. Lucid is making 577 cars this year and won’t commit to their 20k goal next year. But I do welcome and commend the competition because every ev on the road is one less ice car.

To anyone that thinks about investing in TSLA directly, I always caution as it’s a very long term play that is still risky. It is overvalued with current production but the question is does it fully price in future potential growth and products. Otherwise everyone does get a bit of TSLA in index funds anyways.

[Kamban]

As for the Michael burry trade, he also kept increasing his short position in December. So he could’ve lost a lot on the way up to 900 (with unlimited potential loss) and that could be why he switched to puts (defined potential loss)?

From what I read it was that Burry thinks that since there are other pure EV makers and also the traditional ICE makers have started making EV, they don't have to buy energy credits from Tesla to meet EPA regulations. And since Tesla has been counting selling a lot of the energy regulatory credits for its bottom line, its profits will go down.

I think the other vehicle makers are having Chip problems. The pure EV makers like Lucid are niche players. And Tesla probably might consider the energy credit selling as icing on the cake, not the cake itself. And finally, just because one got it right in 2008 does not mean he will get it right in 2021.

[Tim]

"I guess it depends on your definition of long term plan. I’m looking 4-5 years down the road so those goals are still intact."

You are correct in relying on the "definition" as an out.
What was the product roadmap 5 and 10 years ago? How did Tesla perform.
I view Tesla's plan as more like an architectural rendering of a massive development. A vision, in a flip presentation. Ten versions to paint a picture of the possibilities for use of a property. Ten architects present and one is selected. STILL have a long way to go to produce the drawings and actually build the project. Was the project completed on time and was it over/under budget and did it meet the profitability targets? Is the foundation sufficient for the next 5 and 10 years?
I don't see even a sufficient architectural rendering of what Tesla will be in 5 or 10 years.
Elon paints many good pictures, but I don't see that a plan has actually been adopted.

[Kamban]

Tesla is still selling every car it makes and is still ramping up production quickly. Q2 production is reportedly all spoken for a few weeks ago. Every other manufacturer is having trouble getting chips for cars and supposedly Tesla doesn’t have any issues or much issues. Q2 delivery numbers will tell early July.

Tesla is having car shortage problems. The Model Y had a decrease in price of $1000 sometimes in Feb/March and it was quickly revised back to its original price within 2 weeks. And recently it has gone up by $500 every other week x 4. Thus it has become $3000 more expensive.

Either Tesla is quite confident people will buy them even with such price increases or the cynic in some feel they are ramping up price in anticipation of Biden restoring the $7500 fed tax credit. Unless there are other cheaper EV with reliable charging infrastructure, I see Tesla continuing to dominate and hold the high prices.

[Tim]

"I see Tesla continuing to dominate and hold the high prices." By necessity Tesla has to hold higher price points. The question is price elasticity. I thought I had seen where orders with deposits had price increases. A variable pricing model might work but it will have an impact. Customers generally feel that dealing with a company that squeezes every last penny out of them and the changes are typically in the companies favor are "sharks". Consistent market pricing strategy is important.
"No haggle pricing" is not freedom to change prices. On existing orders.

[Nysoz]

https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-te...een-you-and-me

https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

If you take a step back and look at 5-10 year intervals rather than the day to day movement or year to year wrenches thrown in the way, Tesla has performed. When looking at Tesla, too many people miss the forest for the trees.

The next 5 years are laid out with the Berlin and Austin factories with continued build out of Fremont and Shanghai. Those planned factories alone will easily continue 50% growth. The huge hurdles are optimizing the 4680 battery line to get consistent great yield, getting partners to build more of them as well, with securing the materials needed for all the batteries needed for all the products they have planned and their growth.

The other parts of the master plan, optimizing solar roof and robotaxis are going to be much harder.

Going to have to edit to add a youtube video, but it's Chamath on CNBC talking about Elon and Tesla in April 2019 (fun fact the TSLA price in the background is pre 5-1 split) that basically sums it up. I understand a lot of people don't like Chamath, but what he says makes sense.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7OaMqbv8WXU

[Tim]

"The next 5 years are laid out with the Berlin and Austin factories with continued build out of Fremont and Shanghai. Those planned factories alone will easily continue 50% growth."

Did not answer the question. Were these on the plan 5 and 10 years ago? You are interpreting your vision of Tesla's plan. I am asking what was and what is Tesla's plan.
Product roadmap is critical. As can be seen from a 6 months timeline for an update. Basic blocking and tackling in manufacturing/assembly operations. Are they going to "outsource" anything or rely on an internal growth? Are they going to allow "after market parts" at all or build their on warranty and maintenance operations?
Just a few questions. I would prefer to look at the actual performance to plan for the last five years. Any more plants or supply chains needed? I don't know. That is all I am saying. It is common to have manufacturing in Europe, Asia and America. There is more to building a company.

[Marko-ER]

When Tesla got into S&P500, I presume it got removed from all the completion indexes (like VXF, the main one I have in my holdings). Does anyone know when that happened -- i.e. date & stock price? If no one here inquired, I might inquire with Vanguard, in case anyone is doing the same thing as me and does direct indexing of S&P500...

[Lordosis]

I finally got around to watching the SNL with Elon. I am not sure what the fuss was about. He was on a comedy show and was joking about how dogecoin was a scam. We already know this! if his words that evening had an impact then all the more reason to stay the heck away from it.