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Tesla, the investment

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  • Lol Master of coin

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    • Yeah, technoking of tesla and master of coin. I can't wait for an earnings call and see if they address them by their new titles.

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      • I can only take so much of this meme-lord, before it gets kinda irritating tbh. But it's worked out so far in building a cultish fan base, so he has his reasons for doing so, I suppose...

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        • I think he's certainly a creative genius. The kind of creative genius that can build a company. The kind of creative genius that can wreck a company.

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          • Elon's job is to be cheerleader in chief to raise the stock price, so that they can hire more engineers who actually do the work

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            • Interesting to compare with GM. Covid bottom was $17 and currently $57,

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              • https://ark-invest.com/articles/anal...rice-target-2/

                Ark invest put out their new price targets. Last time they were called crazy but the only ones to get it right as other analysts raised their price targets to match Tesla’s rising share price.

                2025 price targets are $1500, $3000, $4000 as bear, expected, bull respectively. This price target didn’t include energy storage or solar either.

                I’m pretty bullish but this is even past my expectations. So I guess time will tell.

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                • It seems extremely unlikely we would have autonomous ride hailing in 2025, especially 350 billion worth. Why does her bull have less of insurance revenue than the bear ? It seems very hard to imagine that a service which doesn’t even exist right now would have similar revenue to their car sales just 4 years from now, talking about the autonomous hailing

                  obviously you know much more about their growth than the rest of us , how reasonable do you think 234-370 bil in car sales in 2025 are ?

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                  • Very unlikely. I have them around 180-225B in vehicle sales in 2025.

                    Insurance revenue is less in the bull case because if a significant portion the cars are owned/operated on the autonomous network, they don’t get insurance premiums from customers driving and self insure themselves.

                    They have a lot of weight in autonomy which I have my doubts about. I think they have the right approach and the tech can get there faster than some estimate but slower than Elon and hyper bulls think. It could probably work in some markets/areas first but certainly not everywhere right away.

                    Another criticism is their gross margin. Since they have so much weight into software/autonomy it skews everything really high.

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                    • The nice thing about being right about something high profile is that you’ll get credibility going forward.

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                      • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
                        The nice thing about being right about something high profile is that you’ll get credibility going forward.
                        For awhile.
                        https://www.wsj.com/articles/star-an...ght-1523628000

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                        • Only time will tell who will be right. Will betting on and finding innovation be the new value investing? Can Cathie be the Buffet of her time?

                          It’s interesting because they have some high conviction companies but force themselves to maintain a max 10% on their portfolio. Forces them to take profits when it’s high and allows to rebalance back in if it goes low.

                          A few winners can definitely carry a portfolio of some losers or add to positions of companies that are awaiting their transformative pivot point.

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                          • It’s just interesting how bullish she is. So her bearish situation would be if the stock goes up like 25% YoY for the next 4 years essentially ? And the expected one is like essentially 50% increase YoY for 4 years.

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                            • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                              Can Cathie be the Buffet of her time?
                              I don’t think anyone will ever be another Buffett in the literal sense. Cathie isn’t actually taking over these companies or changing their day to day operations.

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                              • That’s true, I was more making the comparison to great investors of their day/career.

                                For every great one there are thousands or millions that underperform and we never hear about. So only time will tell.

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