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  • #76




    A legit sustainable $35k price point will do to the car market
    Click to expand...


    Though I agree on the price point worrying mainstream car manufacturers (Toyota, Honda, Ford, etc.).   Telsa, truly competing IMO will be a lot more challenging in appealing to an average consumer.  Certainly, Tesla will appeal to folks driving around town (urban/suburban) and though 95%+ of my driving is exactly this (probably put 8K miles/year on my car).  Once a year, I drive to Chicago (over 600 miles) in a day.  The Telsa simply won't work currently for consistent long distance driving.

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    • #77







      A legit sustainable $35k price point will do to the car market
      Click to expand…


      Though I agree on the price point worrying mainstream car manufacturers (Toyota, Honda, Ford, etc.).   Telsa, truly competing IMO will be a lot more challenging in appealing to an average consumer.  Certainly, Tesla will appeal to folks driving around town (urban/suburban) and though 95%+ of my driving is exactly this (probably put 8K miles/year on my car).  Once a year, I drive to Chicago (over 600 miles) in a day.  The Telsa simply won’t work currently for consistent long distance driving.
      Click to expand...


      With Today's iteration it already does work for distance travellers.  The recharging stations are spaced out correctly along Interstate to 'get by'.  2nd generation faster charging at 150-200, even 300 will basically resolve that stepping stone.   Most folk never even do that 600mi, let alone 300mile distance run in a day.  -- that would be closer to 2 standard deviations

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      • #78







        A legit sustainable $35k price point will do to the car market
        Click to expand…


        Though I agree on the price point worrying mainstream car manufacturers (Toyota, Honda, Ford, etc.).   Telsa, truly competing IMO will be a lot more challenging in appealing to an average consumer.  Certainly, Tesla will appeal to folks driving around town (urban/suburban) and though 95%+ of my driving is exactly this (probably put 8K miles/year on my car).  Once a year, I drive to Chicago (over 600 miles) in a day.  The Telsa simply won’t work currently for consistent long distance driving.
        Click to expand...


        Read my reply to Ted on the other Tesla thread.  A 600 mile drive is ridiculously easy in a Tesla.  In fact it's perfect for it.  We're driving from the east coast to Texas for Thanksgiving and back.  I'm looking forward to the drive.

        Comment


        • #79
          While I can admit to feeling more schadenfreude than I care to admit, this whole discussion should really just point out the reasons why we should be buy and hold index investors.  The entire financial system is either incapable of properly assessing itself for even the near term, or, more realistically, is a pool full of sharks looking for guppies like us.

          This example in particular should be a great example of how FUD can be used to shape opinions and more powerfully to create emotion.  There is so much negative news (production, factory safety, demand, oversupply, undersupply, cobalt supply, and more) that eventually get proven false.  The stock price is a yoyo.  Somebody is making a lot of money on all that, but it probably ain't the doc investing between exams.

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          • #80


            A 600 mile drive is ridiculously easy in a Tesla.
            Click to expand...


            Yes the drive itself is easy.  The difficult part is the time when I am looking to cover 600 miles in one day of driving.  I have done the drive in 9'ish hours (two stops for gas), usually closer to 10 to 10.5 hours (nice Italian lunch on The Hill in St. Louis).  This type of long distance driving is currently not possible in a Telsa (range of 300 ish miles on a full charge) covering a given long distance in the same time as a ICE because of a. the distance and b. time required to charge.

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            • #81
              Not necessarily that hard or significantly longer either.  HERE is a 600mi trip with that nice lunch in St Louis while charging .  two short breaks 20min and 30min puts the trip at 11hours.   Using Autopilot; you'll be well rested too.    That's with tech today.   With next gen charging it'll be even faster and better.   EV maturing at such a rapid rate on efficiencies.

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              • #82
                @StarTrek and @Molar Mechanic,

                To the non-Tesla owner’s you guys are pro’s.
                I apologize, we of the uneducated masses greatly admire your skills. To you it’s easy.

                I have 5 gas stations to the left and 5 to the right when I leave my subdivision. It’s 20 miles to the nearest recharging station with a toll road in the fourth largest city in the country. My antenna goes up, gas lines from Hurricane Ike. It was miserable.
                Recharging stations aren’t visible or abundant to deplorables like me. Seriously, non-owners are petrified.

                Speaking of pro’s, the great ones make it look so easy don’t they? I believe owners are saying the learning curve isn’t steep. To most of us it’s as terrifying as trying to hit a major league pitcher. Home runs in the World Series look so easy.

                Comment


                • #83


                  Read my reply to Ted on the other Tesla thread. A 600 mile drive is ridiculously easy in a Tesla. In fact it’s perfect for it. We’re driving from the east coast to Texas for Thanksgiving and back. I’m looking forward to the drive.
                  Click to expand...


                  From a practical standpoint, do recharging stations have amenities? That is a sincere question. We choose our refueling stops based upon needs during the trip, not just gas. Things like restrooms, drinks, walking a pet, snack or food, drive through or take a break nearby are normally factors in which exit we get off the highway.  The goal is ONE stop. Anyone that says, "can we stop at the next station" gets me taking a big breath before I say fine. The whole idea is to fill up once you get to a quarter tank. Everything needed is done in one stop.

                  By the way, some stops are needed by my spouse when we don't need gas. I can work that in easy. Clean restrooms are available in some the better travel plazas! We pick the spots by sight usually.

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                  • #84





                    The stock price is a yoyo. Somebody is making a lot of money on all that, but it probably ain’t the doc investing between exams.
                    Click to expand...




                    While I can admit to feeling more schadenfreude than I care to admit, this whole discussion should really just point out the reasons why we should be buy and hold index investors. The entire financial system is either incapable of properly assessing itself for even the near term, or, more realistically, is a pool full of sharks looking for guppies like us.
                    Click to expand...


                    The reality is that running a company is difficult and that depending upon the metrics used, the stock price will change. Is it market share, or revenue growth or earnings per share, or dividend consistency or dividend growth? So even with perfect and honest information, the buyer and sellers of the stock are free to use different metrics. Not fake news, nor misleading hype. Then figure in the macro-economic outside of the company and its impossible.

                    Think of a stock price as a yoyo on and escalator. Is the escalator going up or down? If the best minds can't predict the economy, thats why you "hold", that's the escalator. If the best minds can't predict stock price movements, that's why you buy and index.

                    If noone has done it consistently, what are the odd's the doc can do it consistently between exams?

                     

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                    • #85
                      Tim, seriously play around a little bit with the trip planner tool on Tesla’s website. https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

                      Even with the shortest range Model 3 that Tesla currently sells, look at the drive times and recharge times from Houston to the places you’re likely to go on a road trip. Austin is a straight shot with no recharge time. San Antonio is a single five minute stop in Flatonia. Dallas is two stops totaling 20 minutes. New Orleans is longer: a 30 minute stop and a 20 minute stop. However, most of these Supercharger stations are near decent restaurants in smaller towns that are deliberately along the route from population center to population center.

                      There is a bit of a bias towards upper middle class owners/drivers. If you have a garage on your house and can put solar on your roof you’re in the best shape to use an electric car as a daily driver. (If you have cheap electricity like in Texas you may not need the solar panels.)

                      If you live in a low rent apartment you might not be able to charge your car overnight. More schools and employers are adding charging stations, but a Tesla probably isn’t a good idea for a resident working learning trauma surgery on gunshot victims at the hospital in the worst part of town, then living in a shady apartment to pay off $500K in student loan debt.

                      (That young doctor probably should pay off the student loans prior to buying a Tesla. Also, hopefully hospital security is decent enough that an attending can safely park and charge a Model S at work just like a department chair or administrator could park a Mercedes or Lexus.)

                      The broader point is that road trips should be no problem. Any really long distance, just fly and rent a car, same as you would if you owned a car with a gasoline engine.

                      Comment


                      • #86




                        @StarTrek and @Molar Mechanic,

                        To the non-Tesla owner’s you guys are pro’s.
                        I apologize, we of the uneducated masses greatly admire your skills. To you it’s easy.

                        I have 5 gas stations to the left and 5 to the right when I leave my subdivision. It’s 20 miles to the nearest recharging station with a toll road in the fourth largest city in the country. My antenna goes up, gas lines from Hurricane Ike. It was miserable.
                        Recharging stations aren’t visible or abundant to deplorables like me. Seriously, non-owners are petrified.

                        Speaking of pro’s, the great ones make it look so easy don’t they? I believe owners are saying the learning curve isn’t steep. To most of us it’s as terrifying as trying to hit a major league pitcher. Home runs in the World Series look so easy.
                        Click to expand...


                        I get it, you think we're MLB players (I wish!)

                        To a biker, a motorcycle looks like a pro needs to ride it.   It doesn't.  It's just an electrified bike.  The principles are the same.  EVs are easy 1-2-3.

                        Your closest recharging station for daily use is your garage plug -- 10 ft away.   In 6 years of EV ownership we've used outside home charging less than 10 times.  once in the tesla for kicks and giggles and the rest because they were free or offered up close parking like Legoland and Disney

                        For mapping to stations, it's easier than Google maps on your phone.  You just press a button and speak navigation and it'll map out the course including any supercharging if needed.  The amenities vary just like refueling stations on freeways, but tend to be sited better than your average fuel stop because Tesla owners to have a bit higher SES amenity thresholds.

                        For evacuations,  Charge to max at home and you have 300 miles to go away and super efficient mileage --skipping those long gas lines and if in traffic on the evacuation route, not burning precious gas in stop/go traffic where your 300mile range is now more like 500+ miles.

                        Try it out.  Take one on a rental for the weekend.  Caution -- You may not buy another Gasser car.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Tim, (sorry I apparently called you Ted)

                          So far as the charging stations near your house (assuming a house), they are truly irrelevant.  For local driving you'll charge in the garage or driveway 1-3 times per week and never think about it.  Road trips are where the learning curve is.  So far as gas shortages, that isn't your problem anymore.  A long term power outage sure could be a problem though.  As an aside, the cars are actually more flood safe than a gas car...there is a video of a guy who basically turned his into a submarine in a flood.  I'm sure the interior was ruined, but the car made it through water higher than the hood.

                          In my area, a lot of the superchargers are located at Sheetz gas stations, which are like a poor mans Buckee's.  Those are great for quick stops.  It barely takes longer to add a hundred miles than the time it takes to pee and grab a Diet Doctor Pepper.  I also keep a frisbee in the car and throw it with the kids for a minute if there is more time.  Another charger that I've used I chose because I needed lunch and their was a Brixx Pizza there, as well as a Red Robyn and a few other  smaller places.  I've seen where Love's truck stops are starting to host superchargers, as well.

                          I do think that we're still in the early adopter phase and there will probably be a few headaches this year that won't be in another 2 years.  I think the pace of supercharger as well as local charging will only increase as sales and adoption increase.  Supposedly there will be a Supercharger V3 in the spring, but there don't seem to be many detail leaked out, and who knows when it will actually be announced or released after going through the Tesla time filter.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Isnt this what the other tesla thread is supposed to be for, lets keep this strictly financial. Love/hate the product in the other one.

                            Comment


                            • #89


                              To a biker, a motorcycle looks like a pro needs to ride it. It doesn’t. It’s just an electrified bike.
                              Click to expand...


                              LOL! Not only are you a physician, your a comedian. Please show me the EV motorcycle that you recommend.

                              Do you really think a motorcycle is a good choice? If its a gas motorcycle, hmmm, most everyone in the ER would kinda suggest you not just hop on one and hope its easy to ride. More like "lost another one". No thanks.

                              Comment


                              • #90

                                The FBI is reviewing Tesla's Model 3 production numbers as part of a criminal probe: WSJ


                                https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fbi-reviewing-tesla-apos-model-180400006.html

                                With Tesla, the time frame of your investment and the volitility is important. There is much room for Musk, and headlines and production issues to distort the market price. It's a great product innovation. Sustained profitability will determine success or failure.

                                One flag, moving profit releases up two weeks is not normal. This has occurred two times. Their only two quarters they reported profits.

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