Tesla, the investment

[billy]

Isn't that one of those multi level marketing deals? Maybe I am thinking of something else but I thought we had a nurse selling everyone expensive pants.

scammers were selling fake lululemons on instagram... maybe thats what youre thinking of?

[Nysoz]

What would you all make of the statement that Tesla’s future trajectory and profits are already priced in to its current valuation? The run up was so massive, do they have any where else to go except tread water and try to live up to expectations in the years to come?

That’s a complicated question with a complicated answer. I think the current share price has priced in a lot of future growth but of mainly the car production side.

With their fsd software/autonomy side, there’s a little of it priced in but not fully. I think people are both underestimating and overestimating this value. Safe or not, Tesla is trudging forward with fsd beta with wider release in the US. This part is widely variable. How many people will buy the full option? How many people will subscribe to the monthly fee? Will other countries get on board? Chinas take rate was very minimal with the limited features there. As Tesla Ramps up production will the take rate be similar/more/less? Tesla doesn’t have to have a fully automated taxi fleet to make money from their software, just good enough or promise enough that people buy it and they can take in that high margin revenue.

Tesla daily is a Tesla bull, so take it with a grain of salt, but here’s a YouTube video explaining possible valuation of car production and fsd revenue over the next 10 years. Now he says conservative a lot but I think he’s making some conservative assumptions and also some not so conservative assumptions.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=i9eWmAkTTTw

The thing I like about investing in Tesla over other evs or clean energy plays is because they have their fingers in so many potentially disruptive fields with room to grow. Evs, autonomy, ai, solar, energy storage, battery production.

From here the upside is limited compared to previously after the run up and market cap, but we're still very early in the clean energy revolution.

As for my lululemon pants, I got regular looking slacks and not male yoga pants.

[Zaphod]

What would you all make of the statement that Tesla’s future trajectory and profits are already priced in to its current valuation? The run up was so massive, do they have any where else to go except tread water and try to live up to expectations in the years to come?

It is basically true. Look at say microsoft after 2000, etc...which wasnt all pe but also market sentiment and rerating. Not saying they cant go up some or anything, but they literally cannot do whats been done, kind of like bitcoin although it has a much further runway.

Tsla cannot 10x again, and certainly will not repeat its 2010-21 run in a time horizon that fits anyones investing time line (unless death has been ruled out technologically). They were nearly a trillion dollar company, so unless the world grows in that period of time to where tsla having a market cap equal to the whole production of the current world makes sense, it wont happen.

It can still fluctuate wildly and have good years, but overall the absolute base case has to be overall price stagnation, with the high likelihood of PE compression in the future. Its even too big for rampant speculation to do anything crazy anymore.

Try not to take this the wrong way, its the martin skhreli of companies (one of the rare people to have traded his way out of a ponzi like scheme and make it profitable), they have won the game and summited the beast.

Although hyped otherwise, almost every sector tsla is involved in is in the end a commodity business, and those arent usually great businesses. Though cyclically might be decent now for commoditites, thats an input cost for tsla.

Doesnt mean they cant find some new path to find growth of course, but theres nothing right now in the business that makes buying here at these prices a good EV (expected value) play. You'll likely have chances to get in at prices that offer better returns however in the future.

[CordMcNally]

Isn't that one of those multi level marketing deals? Maybe I am thinking of something else but I thought we had a nurse selling everyone expensive pants.

I think you're thinking of LuLaRoe. Lululemon is still a scam but a different one.

[Nysoz]

Tsla cannot 10x again, and certainly will not repeat its 2010-21 run in a time horizon that fits anyones investing time line (unless death has been ruled out technologically). They were nearly a trillion dollar company, so unless the world grows in that period of time to where tsla having a market cap equal to the whole production of the current world makes sense, it wont happen.

I just want to clarify first that I don’t expect this to happen any time soon if ever. If Tesla or someone else truly solves autonomy, it will have the ability to 10x again. It has the potential to replace every driver in the world, every truck driver, every taxi/Uber driver, every delivery driver, every commuter. At that point it becomes cost prohibitive to even own a car and cheaper to just ev robotaxi everywhere. How much value does that bring to a company or the world in productivity?

Total market cap keeps going up. Will it slow down or go up faster? Us market cap was 15T in 2011 and 50T in 2020 (I did cherry pick this timeframe). A trillion dollar company used to sound ridiculous but now there’s a few.

[Zaphod]

I just want to clarify first that I don’t expect this to happen any time soon if ever. If Tesla or someone else truly solves autonomy, it will have the ability to 10x again. It has the potential to replace every driver in the world, every truck driver, every taxi/Uber driver, every delivery driver, every commuter. At that point it becomes cost prohibitive to even own a car and cheaper to just ev robotaxi everywhere. How much value does that bring to a company or the world in productivity?

Total market cap keeps going up. Will it slow down or go up faster? Us market cap was 15T in 2011 and 50T in 2020 (I did cherry pick this timeframe). A trillion dollar company used to sound ridiculous but now there’s a few.

Yes I dont disagree which is why I put in the "investing timeline" disclaimer. People that caught this did great, but lots are jumping on thinking it will happen again to them, possible, but much less likely. Trying to find the next possibility likely a better use of that energy.

I think the slow but large growth overall is what most people miss about markets and is difficult to comprehend. Its the most powerful part.

[Lordosis]

I think you're thinking of LuLaRoe. Lululemon is still a scam but a different one.

Yes that is what I was thinking of. Lol

[Molar Mechanic]

Stonks go up, stonks go down. Invest in what you know. Don't get emotional. Don't gloat when you're correct, don't over indulge in the schadenfreude when others are wrong.

As for me?

When TSLA went up 24x from when I bought it, I cracked open a beer and went to work the next day.

I just learned from you guys that TSLA went down to 16x, I cracked open a beer and I'm going to work tomorrow.

Life goes on. C'est la vie. Vegas stocks going to do what Vegas stocks do.

[xraygoggles]

on a side note since I mentioned lululemon, I did buy some pants from there and they are exceptionally comfortable. Probably not worth the price tag, but definitely one of the more comfortable pair of pants I’ve ever owned.

Lululemon attire for men is a well kept secret. I found out about it from my ex a few years ago, who recommended it to me. It's form-fitting, comfortable, and versatile.

Let's make a Lululemon thread for us fanbois, forget Tesla.

[CordMcNally]

I could never bring myself to buy a $75 pair of athletic shorts unless it came with $60 in the pockets.

[White.Beard.Doc]

I was a Tesla fan boy back in 2010. I bought the stock back in the day. Not only have I owned the stock for a long time, but I have also owned 4 of their vehicles.

Drivetrain: amazing
Interface: Outstanding
Suspension: variable, quite good on some of the vehicles to not so great on others
HVAC: so, so
Quality control: hit or miss
Autopilot: fantastic only in limited circumstances, clear weather, limited access highways, terrible in many other circumstances

The reality is that the cars are very nice in many ways, the sick torque and acceleration just never gets old. The drivetrain, modulation and regen just keeps getting better and better.

However, these cars are not going to be able to fully drive themselves any time soon without a driver behind the wheel. The vehicle has self driving vision like an octogenarian with bad cataracts. And the self driving computer has the IQ of an imbecile in many circumstances, some quite complex, but also others quite simple. I have doubts that the current technology path they are on (the hardware even more than the software) will ever be good enough to completely get rid of the driver.

Yes, it is wonderful to relax on a long trip on a limited access highway as the car reliably drives itself in clear weather. At the same time, it is frustrating as ************************ that the vehicle cannot pass a parked car on a local street without coming to a stop, not knowing what to do. Yes, the software that controls the car will slowly get incrementally better. But the autopilot vision seems to have limited distance vision, and the software continues to have limited processing power to interpret what it sees. The computer vision is seriously lacking in depth perception and simply cannot figure out what spaces it can fit through.

Tesla stock got way ahead of itself. Too many future upsides baked in, some realistic and others pie in the sky. Yes, Elon is brilliant, but he is also crazy.

The batteries will continue to steadily improve. The autopilot will also slowly improve. But robotaxis that can handle anything with no human input at all? I am skeptical. Perhaps they will iterate to the point where the vehicle can handle 98% of circumstances, and then a remote taxi driver will take over from India via G5 internet to drive the vehicle out of whatever it cannot handle. But robotaxis are not just around the corner. They just aren't. And that theoretical value was already baked into the recent price of the stock.

[Nysoz]

I do agree the stock price got way ahead of itself. To me, this is a more 'fair' value, and still pricing in much of the future. The run to the 800s included too much margin use, enthusiasm with stonks only going up, and money printer going brrr.

Currently the car doesn't use the FSD chip to its full potential with the public build. With the new beta re-write, instead of training the computer on still images, it's training on video and will use more capabilities of the chip. This theoretically gives the car 'pseudo-lidar' in a sense to estimate distance. It won't be as good as lidar, but how well do you need to know distances of objects to drive? Humans can drive by estimating that this curb or car is about 6-12 inches away from me and that building is really far away and I don't even need to worry about it. I don't need to know that the curb is exactly 15cm away and that the building is 10.5m away. I just need to be able to predict my car will fit through the planned path safely.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-beta-vs-waymo-real-world-test-video/

So this guy uses waymo and fsd beta to go to taco bell and safeway. In the waymo ride, the robotaxi took longer because it avoided a left turn to make an easier right turn path where the fsd beta made the unprotected left turn to go the more direct route that humans would use. To be fair, this was on a clear night with minimal traffic so not too difficult of a drive. Each fsd beta update is supposed to be a step change better than the previous one and several videos have the car squeezing in between cars confidently and passing parked cars on the side of the road. It still does make some mistakes though and still has a ways to go.

White.Beard.Doc if you bought FSD, there may or may not be a button coming available to download the FSD beta to test out. Elon was widening the beta testers and asking people that were interested in testing it out to sign up. But with overwhelming interest it sounds like it may be more available to sign up for. People have to sign some waiver with legalese saying that you'll be safe and 'don't sue me bro' I'm sure.

Widespread robotaxis are still not around the corner for sure. Some portion of current/future take rate/revenue is priced in, but I don't think you can ever truly price in full autonomy or transport as a service in the distant future.

But what I'm truly excited about is energy revolution. News this morning is that Tesla is plugging in a 100 mwh battery into the Texas energy grid under Gambit Energy Storage LLC. Combine this with autobidder and energy arbitrage is a way to stabilize the grid and make money at the same time.

[Panscan]

I could never bring myself to buy a $75 pair of athletic shorts unless it came with $60 in the pockets.

I haven't done lulu myself but I do some other brands that are higher end than your basic nike or adidas and I think the difference can be worth it. stuff last longer, fits better, feels better.

[Brains428]

Nysoz Those in the TeslaQ twitterverse think the Texas battery announcement is a potential way to get more profitability out of governement subsidy and the FSD beta expansion is a way to pump the stock.

The whole thing going on with ARK and Tesla seems to be bad combination to be in (or a good one if you were on the upside of 2020).

I appreciate the insight Nysoz has provided on trading the company on the upside and also providing some rational positive insight on the company/tech (not the cult like stuff you see on Twitter).

[Nysoz]

Those things that TeslaQ say may be true as well. It doesn't have to be one or the other.

I do admit to be bullish on the company and share price. I try to be more reasonable than TeslaQ and the dreamers though lol. As with almost everything in life, the right answer is more often somewhere in between. Unfortunately the difference between the two is so wide that no one truly knows.