Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Tesla, the investment

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    He can still sell and diversify and still likely retire.
    A lot depends on if the shares were options and actually when they were exercised. Still a good hunk of change by the gains get taxed the same as ST or LT holding periods.
    Most need a plan rather than go it alone. Who knows, maybe he cashed out with LTCG as part of his exit plan already.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Tim View Post
      A lot depends on if the shares were options and actually when they were exercised. Still a good hunk of change by the gains get taxed the same as ST or LT holding periods.
      Most need a plan rather than go it alone. Who knows, maybe he cashed out with LTCG as part of his exit plan already.
      Per his posts, they’re all in shares. Him cashing out would go against every one of his previous and current posts.

      Comment


      • The way to retire with TSLA shares is either selling and diversifying or sell covered calls off them.

        With that many shares you can sell the highest strike a year out and still have a decent living.

        sounds like he has around 15000 shares. 150 contracts of the Jan 2022 1700 strikes at 2.2k each is 330k.

        either he gets 330k a year to live off of or has to sell all his shares for 25.5M. Or some option in between as well

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
          The way to retire with TSLA shares is either selling and diversifying or sell covered calls off them.

          With that many shares you can sell the highest strike a year out and still have a decent living.

          sounds like he has around 15000 shares. 150 contracts of the Jan 2022 1700 strikes at 2.2k each is 330k.

          either he gets 330k a year to live off of or has to sell all his shares for 25.5M. Or some option in between as well
          I'm not sure a guy who retires from his day job, keeps all of his money in TSLA shares, and then lives off margin loans is going to do the smart thing.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

            Per his posts, they’re all in shares. Him cashing out would go against every one of his previous and current posts.
            Down 50%, cash out, another 23.8-50+%, and 12M becomes 3M.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
              The way to retire with TSLA shares is either selling and diversifying or sell covered calls off them.

              With that many shares you can sell the highest strike a year out and still have a decent living.

              sounds like he has around 15000 shares. 150 contracts of the Jan 2022 1700 strikes at 2.2k each is 330k.

              either he gets 330k a year to live off of or has to sell all his shares for 25.5M. Or some option in between as well
              This sounds like a good plan, in theory. But what happens if the price drops another 30% from here (is that really so crazy?). He's already lost 1/3 value from the peak, so now he has 8M. Another 1/3 loss brings it around 5M. He could panic at that point, which would be perfectly understandable, sell his remaining equity, pay another 24-35% in taxes, lets say. (23.8% LTCG + NIIT and whatever state tax). He would cash out with 3.5-4.5M, which is great, but far from 12M.

              Just playing devil's advocate for this type of strategy. My assumptions are fairly reasonable and rational. I didn't even include margin call in here, which a lot of people are using.

              Edit: oops, just realized Zaphod said the same thing I did, but I just explained how it could work.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                This sounds like a good plan, in theory. But what happens if the price drops another 30% from here (is that really so crazy?). He's already lost 1/3 value from the peak, so now he has 8M. Another 1/3 loss brings it around 5M. He could panic at that point, which would be perfectly understandable, sell his remaining equity, pay another 24-35% in taxes, lets say. (23.8% LTCG + NIIT and whatever state tax). He would cash out with 3.5-4.5M, which is great, but far from 12M.

                Just playing devil's advocate for this type of strategy. My assumptions are fairly reasonable and rational. I didn't even include margin call in here, which a lot of people are using.

                Edit: oops, just realized Zaphod said the same thing I did, but I just explained how it could work.
                and people will not necessarily be paying sky high premium for ridiculous calls if its seen as a broken stock.

                Comment


                • Covered calls don’t aren’t tax free and neither are the gains on shares called. The unrealized are tax neutral. Might end up with tax on the sale of the share and tax on the call. Simply need to do the math. Net of taxes count for cash to live on.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                    This sounds like a good plan, in theory. But what happens if the price drops another 30% from here (is that really so crazy?). He's already lost 1/3 value from the peak, so now he has 8M. Another 1/3 loss brings it around 5M. He could panic at that point, which would be perfectly understandable, sell his remaining equity, pay another 24-35% in taxes, lets say. (23.8% LTCG + NIIT and whatever state tax). He would cash out with 3.5-4.5M, which is great, but far from 12M.

                    Just playing devil's advocate for this type of strategy. My assumptions are fairly reasonable and rational. I didn't even include margin call in here, which a lot of people are using.
                    Perfectly reasonable assumption and possibilities because who knows with TSLA. I’m assuming that someone that has amassed 15000 shares of TSLA has been accumulating for some time now has conviction in the company and has been through similar drops in the past. So more than likely won’t panic sell. Ron baron said he owns 1.15M shares in his personal account and hasn’t sold a single one.

                    I started selling calls just before the covid crash and even after it dumped I was still getting fair premium. It’ll take more than a share price collapse to beat out the meme popularity of TSLA options.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post

                      Perfectly reasonable assumption and possibilities because who knows with TSLA. I’m assuming that someone that has amassed 15000 shares of TSLA has been accumulating for some time now has conviction in the company and has been through similar drops in the past. So more than likely won’t panic sell. Ron baron said he owns 1.15M shares in his personal account and hasn’t sold a single one.

                      I started selling calls just before the covid crash and even after it dumped I was still getting fair premium. It’ll take more than a share price collapse to beat out the meme popularity of TSLA options.
                      I have gain stronger conviction for Tesla at least for the next 10-15 years. I’m always looking for other companies to look into. Are there any worth that has such a following?

                      Comment


                      • It’s hard because there’s some cult follower companies out there like peloton or lululemon previously but not as fervent as Tesla. GameStop has a fan base for a different reason.

                        as for ev companies, nio and cciv (lucid motors) have decent followings but they’re priced like they’re the next Tesla when they’re not. Ultimately their evs may compare to a Tesla but Tesla is more than just a ev company even though that’s where they get the majority of their obvious revenue for now.

                        I invested in Tesla because I love the product (car) and I believe in a clean renewable future. It might take years to get there, but it’ll get there either through necessity, government mandate, economics or some combination.

                        on a side note since I mentioned lululemon, I did buy some pants from there and they are exceptionally comfortable. Probably not worth the price tag, but definitely one of the more comfortable pair of pants I’ve ever owned.

                        Comment


                        • What would you all make of the statement that Tesla’s future trajectory and profits are already priced in to its current valuation? The run up was so massive, do they have any where else to go except tread water and try to live up to expectations in the years to come?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                            It’s hard because there’s some cult follower companies out there like peloton or lululemon previously but not as fervent as Tesla. GameStop has a fan base for a different reason.

                            as for ev companies, nio and cciv (lucid motors) have decent followings but they’re priced like they’re the next Tesla when they’re not. Ultimately their evs may compare to a Tesla but Tesla is more than just a ev company even though that’s where they get the majority of their obvious revenue for now.

                            I invested in Tesla because I love the product (car) and I believe in a clean renewable future. It might take years to get there, but it’ll get there either through necessity, government mandate, economics or some combination.

                            on a side note since I mentioned lululemon, I did buy some pants from there and they are exceptionally comfortable. Probably not worth the price tag, but definitely one of the more comfortable pair of pants I’ve ever owned.
                            Isn't that one of those multi level marketing deals? Maybe I am thinking of something else but I thought we had a nurse selling everyone expensive pants.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

                              Isn't that one of those multi level marketing deals? Maybe I am thinking of something else but I thought we had a nurse selling everyone expensive pants.
                              no it's a popular high end athletic clothes store basically, like 100 dollar yoga pants. the stuff is nice and well made but it's pricy.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Panscan View Post

                                no it's a popular high end athletic clothes store basically, like 100 dollar yoga pants. the stuff is nice and well made but it's pricy.
                                I have a SIL that bought a pair. Never exercises but wears them to the Dollar Store. Go figure. I think she wears them while she watches HSN and scouts for bargains. Really big on collectible dolls.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X