I have been a Tesla fan since 2010 when I ordered my first Model S. The stock has done very well for me over the past decade, but my enthusiasm is waning. I told a friend back in 2010 that it is inadvisable to bet against Musk's ability to execute. But my conviction about Musk is also waning.
Where does my current skepticism come from? The full self driving claims are just not credible. The cars can currently drive themselves well in simple situations, like on the limited access highways. So if we are at 75% self driving today, each stepwise increment towards 100% gets harder and harder to achieve. My current Teslas drive themselves using eyesight cameras, but their vision and depth perception is quite poor. The Tesla cannot even drive around a parked car on a local street if there is a car parked at the curb and the Tesla would have to cross the yellow center line to pass the parked car. This is a simple maneuver, yet the car does not have enough "brain power" to figure out what to do, and it does not have enough depth perception to know what spaces it can fit through.
On the plus side, the electric drive trains are awesome, and the touch screen interface between driver and vehicle is pretty slick. But the suspension and ride are subpar (although the ride on the S with air suspension is sweet, but not on the Y), and the full self driving is so far away from reality that it does not seem credible any time in the near future. When you drive a Tesla in self driving mode today, true robotaxis with their current technology feel like a bridge too far.
I continue long with my Tesla stock, just for fun, but I no longer feel all that optimistic about the upside from here.
Where does my current skepticism come from? The full self driving claims are just not credible. The cars can currently drive themselves well in simple situations, like on the limited access highways. So if we are at 75% self driving today, each stepwise increment towards 100% gets harder and harder to achieve. My current Teslas drive themselves using eyesight cameras, but their vision and depth perception is quite poor. The Tesla cannot even drive around a parked car on a local street if there is a car parked at the curb and the Tesla would have to cross the yellow center line to pass the parked car. This is a simple maneuver, yet the car does not have enough "brain power" to figure out what to do, and it does not have enough depth perception to know what spaces it can fit through.
On the plus side, the electric drive trains are awesome, and the touch screen interface between driver and vehicle is pretty slick. But the suspension and ride are subpar (although the ride on the S with air suspension is sweet, but not on the Y), and the full self driving is so far away from reality that it does not seem credible any time in the near future. When you drive a Tesla in self driving mode today, true robotaxis with their current technology feel like a bridge too far.
I continue long with my Tesla stock, just for fun, but I no longer feel all that optimistic about the upside from here.
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