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  • https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla...203938920.html

    Interesting prognostication. If true, lack of growth in China could be an issue with regards to continued stock price rise.

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    • Well to compound on that, apparently the average price of a new car sale is $38k. I guess people don’t worry about sticker price and see what kind of monthly payment they can get. Once Dave Ramsey or someone else says an ev is just much cheaper than a gas car people will slowly come around.

      I don’t think any other oem can sell an ev at a profit yet (maybe Porsche?). Trying to undercut Tesla while losing their ice sales is going to be a steep hill to climb. Apparently ford and gm are in Uber debt as it is.

      Tesla isn’t doing anything to promote charging in structures. For a while they were giving away some wall chargers to businesses for them to install but don’t know if that’s a thing still or not. For mass adoption that’s one of the problems to solve. Charging at home/on the street/work. Otherwise it’s just going to be like now having to go to a charging station once a week or something. They are constantly building out their supercharging network though.

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      • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
        Well to compound on that, apparently the average price of a new car sale is $38k.
        I'm guessing that is new vehicle sales and not just cars. That is going to be skewed heavily by the fact that trucks and SUVs dominant new vehicle sales and typically have pretty high price tags.

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        • That “analyst” needs to do more research lol. There won’t be mic cars driving around the us. The Shanghai factory is for the Asia market and maybe Europe/Australia. Why would Tesla build a car in China then ship it to the us with import taxes or whatever else there is, instead of just building one in California or Texas?

          They also talk about us/China trade tensions escalating through 2030. Something needs to be done about China but the only tension was because of trump. Even if he wins that’s 4 more years and then terms can be renegotiated again.

          Chinese people love western brands and culture. They love their Apple products and fancy cars to show off their status.

          https://m.benzinga.com/article/17744415

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          • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

            I'm guessing that is new vehicle sales and not just cars. That is going to be skewed heavily by the fact that trucks and SUVs dominant new vehicle sales and typically have pretty high price tags.
            https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/

            I used this which just says light vehicle sales

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            • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post

              https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/

              I used this which just says light vehicle sales
              Light vehicles include cars, trucks, and SUVs.

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              • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                That “analyst” needs to do more research lol. There won’t be mic cars driving around the us. The Shanghai factory is for the Asia market and maybe Europe/Australia. Why would Tesla build a car in China then ship it to the us with import taxes or whatever else there is, instead of just building one in California or Texas?

                They also talk about us/China trade tensions escalating through 2030. Something needs to be done about China but the only tension was because of trump. Even if he wins that’s 4 more years and then terms can be renegotiated again.

                Chinese people love western brands and culture. They love their Apple products and fancy cars to show off their status.

                https://m.benzinga.com/article/17744415
                Why would you build a phone and ship to the US?
                Why would you grow a crop in the US and ship to China?
                Why manufacture a little pill and ship to the US?

                No offense intended, but you are a fish out of water regarding global trade, manufacturing and trade agreements.. Trade agreements must change. That’s not a political statement, it’s just there was no path to equilibrium.


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                • I'll concede that I'm not well versed in geopolitics and complex trade agreements. I will say that I do know Tesla's current projected (public) plan and it doesn't involve Made in China cars to be shipped to the US. The only thing that China has that Tesla may want in the US, are CATL batteries which would be way cheaper to ship over to Fremont to be placed into a car, rather than the entire car. Even then, that's unlikely as they scale up their new (better) battery line and have agreements with Panasonic/LG.

                  Tesla's strategy has been to open gigafactories for local production and distribution in the different continents/markets. Source as much material and talent locally to save money. That's why their costs and time to build factories have been better than competitors.

                  As to your questions, it's probably cheaper to build/make everything in one place then distribute those items rather than have multiple factories doing the same thing everywhere for those products. Those phones and pills don't have the same factories by the same companies in the place where they're shipping to. Hypothetically, if Apple had a factory making iPhones in the US as well as China, why would they ship phones made in China to the US?

                  The whole crop/milk industry is so heavily subsidized and manipulated by geopolitics and trade agreements it makes my head swim.

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                  • “Tesla's strategy has been to open gigafactories for local production and distribution in the different continents/markets. Source as much material and talent locally to save money. That's why their costs and time to build factories have been better than competitors.“

                    This is no different than any manufacturing/assembly /distribution production.
                    Total cost of a product is important. But tax and duties for an operation in a country have two competing factors for that country. That is why country of origin is tracked on each part.
                    The customer sales price is revenue where sold.
                    Transfer pricing determines the the cost.
                    Each country plays a game:
                    High cost means low profits, low tax.
                    High cost means high import duties.
                    Jobs/economic growth are at stake.
                    A global economic contribution analysis is used to determine how that profit is split. Then it has to pass muster in each country. For example, airbags were basically made in Japan. Sold to a US subsidiary, US manufacturers, etc. ?
                    The trade agreements were made intentionally to “assist” China in joining global commerce. Abused.
                    China pursued only an export model and prohibited “foreign” competition. Both selling imports or items manufactured in China. Immediately set to work setting up local manufacturing and shutting out any foreign sales.
                    Examples: Software, computers, electronics, phones. You won’t find one dominant “foreign” owned business. Screw patents, copyrights, or any legal agreements. Their neighbors have a much better understanding of the culture rules.
                    There are no rules in dealing with China, as currently constituted and their people only have rights that China decides to give them.

                    So forget the domestic politics and realize global politics is a completely adversarial battle. I hope they change now and I hope they change later. But I hope they level the playing field.

                    Another example is assembling cars in Mexico and Canada. Not one part made in Mexico or Canada. The trade agreements were one sided, needed to change. Tax and tariffs matter.
                    Not political, Obama was naive saying manufacturing jobs weren’t coming back. Absolutely, under his understanding of tax and tariffs. Profits and jobs were exported, not on cost but tax and tariffs. It is a big deal.
                    Foxconn is a large Chinese company. Huge operations in the US and China. That is China’s footprint in capturing profits on both sides. We have a free market, they don’t.
                    Another small example, Hong Kong has long been a gateway to China. It’s not looking good for Hong Kong, politically or economically.
                    Be careful how value consumer goods. Jeans were the rage in Moscow.


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                    • China wants Tesla’s technology. They will be vacuuming up every detail and bit of information on their technology and building process. Once that process is complete, in the event of a company disagreement or international conflict, the Chinese operation will be nationalized. Anyone within reach who dissents against this process will be charged with crimes against the state, they and their family will be arrested, tortured and executed.

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                      • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
                        China wants Tesla’s technology. They will be vacuuming up every detail and bit of information on their technology and building process. Once that process is complete, in the event of a company disagreement or international conflict, the Chinese operation will be nationalized. Anyone within reach who dissents against this process will be charged with crimes against the state, they and their family will be arrested, tortured and executed.
                        If that's the price to electrify the transportation system to wage the war against CO2 emissions...

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
                          China wants Tesla’s technology. They will be vacuuming up every detail and bit of information on their technology and building process. Once that process is complete, in the event of a company disagreement or international conflict, the Chinese operation will be nationalized. Anyone within reach who dissents against this process will be charged with crimes against the state, they and their family will be arrested, tortured and executed.
                          As burritos said, Tesla's whole goal is the acceleration to sustainable transport and energy. They're obviously looking to make money along the way as well, but overall they want to make the world more sustainable.

                          Even if China does appropriate Tesla's tech and copies it, once implemented, Tesla will be on the next iteration of technology which is why they're so far ahead of other OEMs. Tesla had a 5-10 year head start. The other OEMs can emulate some stuff and start to catch up, but as long as Tesla keeps innovating, everyone else will remain years behind. During this pandemic, a lot of companies had to cut costs to survive which means reducing spending on areas that weren't making money (their EVs). So unfortunately that puts them even further behind.

                          'The competition is coming' has been said for at least 3 years now? So we'll see how the future plays out.

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                          • “Tesla's whole goal is the acceleration to sustainable transport and energy. ”

                            Rather bold statement to make to lenders and shareholders. Sounds like a charity. Are they planning on becoming a nonprofit and keeping the donations? I guess we will see how the future plays out. That would wipeout any NOL’s.

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                            • https://www.tesla.com/about

                              I guess it is in bold at the top of the page. As the cars get cheaper to build, they've slowly decreased prices of them. They still make a healthy profit off them to continue to grow the company further. The model that Elon's going after is high volume/high margin for products. His goal is to get as many cars on the road and hopefully benefit from high margin software sales. I don't see it happening for a while, but if/once FSD gets solved that's another additional $8k-?? potential per car on the road.

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                              • Not unexpected. Marketing the product fully loaded, reduce base and charge for features, charge for updates. The tout of “free updates” one would expect to disappear.
                                Options and updates will by necessity be a revenue source. Trip charges for onsite repairs? The marketing is the “warranty terms”. Every vendor wants revenue sources.

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