Tesla, the investment

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

I don’t get the avoiding gas stations argument. There is a gas station on the right hand side of the road on every major pathway every 1/4 mile around here. Most are open 24 hours. It takes 3 footsteps and 120 seconds total to fill up a tank and drive away. If I’m working a lot, I can seriously go 3-4 weeks in between fill ups, as work, stores, shopping are all within a mile or two of my house. I’d hate charging every night and it would take more time and effort for me, than getting gas.

That being said, I don’t like storing gas and oil, so I did buy my 1st battery powered lawnmower the other day. I just don’t want gas cans to store in the garage, as our garage is pretty much just like another room in the house at this point. We will see if it can get the job done. I’m calling it “The CyberMower”. I’m thinking of getting one of those million mile batteries, from battery day, for it.

[Tim]

Did you get the robo model version 3.11 version?
I love having coffee or coming home to a fresh cut lawn. That self navigation is awesome. Can’t wait for the hedge trimmer.

[Nysoz]

I don’t get the avoiding gas stations argument. There is a gas station on the right hand side of the road on every major pathway every 1/4 mile around here. Most are open 24 hours. It takes 3 footsteps and 120 seconds total to fill up a tank and drive away. If I’m working a lot, I can seriously go 3-4 weeks in between fill ups, as work, stores, shopping are all within a mile or two of my house. I’d hate charging every night and it would take more time and effort for me, than getting gas.

Everyone's different but it's just something you have to experience and get used to I guess. The gas station I used to go to was at a kinda busier intersection, still on the right hand side so easy to pull off. If it was busy sometimes I would have to wait to get a pump. Sometimes the card reader wouldn't work or the sun was shining in a way so I couldn't read the display and would have to go in and try to guess how much to put on the pump. Gas fumes aren't the most pleasant smell but really didn't notice most of the time. Sometimes for whatever reason I got a slow pump that would take longer than the 120 seconds, but I already invested my time getting set up for this one so I didn't want to move to another pump. No matter how much I jiggled the pump, I always seemed to dribble a bit on my car or the ground. Sometimes when pulling out of the gas station, if traffic was backed up, I would have to wait a traffic light cycle to get out.

Now, when I pull into my garage and get out, I walk 3 steps back to the charging port, pull the charging cable off the wall, hit the button on the handle and plug in the car then go into the house. I typically charge my car to 80% which gives me 240 miles of range (it's safe to do 90% or 270 miles) and my commute is 40 miles or so. That means I can safely do 5 commutes before charging up again if I wanted to or if I forgot. If your driving habits have you fill up every 3-4 weeks, then you can probably go 2 weeks in between charging.

I'm being ridiculous about filling up the gas tank, but all those scenarios I'm sure everyone's faced one time or another.

[Tim]

“I'm being ridiculous about filling up the gas tank, but all those scenarios I'm sure everyone's faced one time or another.”
But I juggle a coffee cup, phone and probably something I need to drop off inside. At least if I remember to come back out to plug in the car I won’t have to wait for a traffic light cycle. Top it off, I hate getting a greeting of “Shut the door”!
Response is usually, “I gotta go”!
Might miss that gas station. I know, it’s ridiculous.
Time at gas pump or plugging in a charger are ridiculous arguments either way. Time at a charger at an inopportune time could be a different issue.

[CordMcNally]

I didn't get a chance to see the battery day stuff although I read about it this morning. It seems like the market wasn't impressed. I guess I'm not sure what the expectations were but it looks like those in the 'buy the rumor, sell the news' camp were correct.

[Nysoz]

So looks like battery day was a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event. It really showed a clear path and technology/battery manufacturing breakthroughs that gives Tesla a good chance at being the most valuable company in the world in 10 years. I know the market is forward looking but we'll see how forward looking it is once things settle down and analysts get to figure out the information presented. (They have to get through the typical awkward Elon presentation)

Biggest slide was 54% increase in range, 56% decrease in $/kwh, 69% decrease in investment per gwh

Tesla's pilot battery line with new in house tech/manufacturing aims for 100 gwh in 2022 and scales to 3 twh by 2030. They're still buying as many batteries as they can from Panasonic, LG, CATL, and 'others' in the meantime. By comparison (very rough numbers), they're using around 35 gwh from Panasonic now for around $24B in revenue. In 2030, 3 twh would mean $2T in revenue. Even if they pass on the savings to customers, that's $1T in revenue likely split between vehicles and energy storage.

The separate manufacturing improvements all add up to change the direction of the battery cost curve. The goal was to have $70-100/kwh but apparently they have a path to get to $50-70 now. It'll take 1.5-3 years to realize these changes and profit.

Important to note that the current pilot battery line is working, but not high yield. Still working out the kinks to get high yield and to be able to scale to where they want it.

They're trying to get factories to be more efficient per floor space. They claim that current factories are around 2-3% efficient and want to get to 20-30% efficient.

Bringing battery recycling in house. Once the world becomes electrified, they won't have to mine anymore and will create new batteries from old recycled ones.

The batteries are going to be structural in a car redesign. Parts of the car redesign is mega casting which reduces cost and pieces to put together, simplifying manufacturing.

Reiterated 30-40% growth which puts them close to the 500k vehicles this year. Long term their goal is 20M cars a year. Hinted at a $25k car, but no information other than possibly 3 years out.

Plaid model S numbers were unveiled to compete with the lucid air/Porsche taycan. 0-60 in < 2 sec, >520 mile range, 200 MPH top speed, $140k price. 1:30 time at laguna seca track, trying to beat all production cars ever made. Can order now but available in about a year.

Private beta of new autopilot rewrite possibly in a month (Elon time).

500-600k+ cybertruck preorders, important to note that it was $100 refundable so not sure how many will turn into real orders/deliveries.

So overall, definitely good long term potential and a path to success, but they have to execute. Their timelines are always in question and there's no immediate benefit/value which is why I'm sure it sold off a bit. Long term investing, I still think there's a path to being the most valuable company in the world while trying to make it a better place. The question for investors is, do you believe that Tesla can execute and perform and believe that electrification is the future?

[fatlittlepig]

So looks like battery day was a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event. It really showed a clear path and technology/battery manufacturing breakthroughs that gives Tesla a good chance at being the most valuable company in the world in 10 years. I know the market is forward looking but we'll see how forward looking it is once things settle down and analysts get to figure out the information presented. (They have to get through the typical awkward Elon presentation)

Biggest slide was 54% increase in range, 56% decrease in $/kwh, 69% decrease in investment per gwh

Tesla's pilot battery line with new in house tech/manufacturing aims for 100 gwh in 2022 and scales to 3 twh by 2030. They're still buying as many batteries as they can from Panasonic, LG, CATL, and 'others' in the meantime. By comparison (very rough numbers), they're using around 35 gwh from Panasonic now for around $24B in revenue. In 2030, 3 twh would mean $2T in revenue. Even if they pass on the savings to customers, that's $1T in revenue likely split between vehicles and energy storage.

The separate manufacturing improvements all add up to change the direction of the battery cost curve. The goal was to have $70-100/kwh but apparently they have a path to get to $50-70 now. It'll take 1.5-3 years to realize these changes and profit.

Important to note that the current pilot battery line is working, but not high yield. Still working out the kinks to get high yield and to be able to scale to where they want it.

They're trying to get factories to be more efficient per floor space. They claim that current factories are around 2-3% efficient and want to get to 20-30% efficient.

Bringing battery recycling in house. Once the world becomes electrified, they won't have to mine anymore and will create new batteries from old recycled ones.

The batteries are going to be structural in a car redesign. Parts of the car redesign is mega casting which reduces cost and pieces to put together, simplifying manufacturing.

Reiterated 30-40% growth which puts them close to the 500k vehicles this year. Long term their goal is 20M cars a year. Hinted at a $25k car, but no information other than possibly 3 years out.

Plaid model S numbers were unveiled to compete with the lucid air/Porsche taycan. 0-60 in < 2 sec, >520 mile range, 200 MPH top speed, $140k price. 1:30 time at laguna seca track, trying to beat all production cars ever made. Can order now but available in about a year.

Private beta of new autopilot rewrite possibly in a month (Elon time).

500-600k+ cybertruck preorders, important to note that it was $100 refundable so not sure how many will turn into real orders/deliveries.

So overall, definitely good long term potential and a path to success, but they have to execute. Their timelines are always in question and there's no immediate benefit/value which is why I'm sure it sold off a bit. Long term investing, I still think there's a path to being the most valuable company in the world while trying to make it a better place. The question for investors is, do you believe that Tesla can execute and perform and believe that electrification is the future?

I wouldn’t fall in love with the company or stock.

[Tim]

I wouldn’t fall in love with the company or stock.

Vaporware if you ever considered buy yet to be developed software.

[xraygoggles]

Well, Battery Day has passed, and it was definitely a flop. Everything Nysoz said above is a fairly good summary.

I wasn't too impressed tbh, and it's obvious the current price has all those things already priced in, and much more. The 25k cars could be a game-changer in the future, but again, that may take 3-5 years (or more).

I think we will have a better idea of the real competition to Tesla in 2021-22 as more and more companies bring out their EVs.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

“Battery Day” seemed like a stock-pumping event looking for news. I don’t blame Musk. He is a brilliant marketer, and modern day PT Barnum. I’m sure the the date was strategically chosen to coincide with the ideal time in the yearly cycle for giving the stock a lift.

[burritos]

https://insideevs.com/news/446773/tesla-25000-electric-car-how-does-it-add-up/

$25,000 tesla car. Gonna happen? Not gonna happen? Meh either way?

[CordMcNally]

https://insideevs.com/news/446773/te...oes-it-add-up/

$25,000 tesla car. Gonna happen? Not gonna happen? Meh either way?

That doesn’t get me excited. I’m sure they could do it to say they did it but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a car that doesn’t excite consumers.

[Nysoz]

It just further accelerates Teslas goal of a more sustainable future. Lots of people bash tesla because it's too expensive and seen as a luxury. With a $25k car, it'll be more accessible to the masses. As of now a model 3 is cheaper than a Camry long term. With this new car, it'll be cheaper to own/operate this than basically anything else.

Also provides mass cheap cars to flood the road if anyone believes in their robotaxi future.

[burritos]

Does tesla have any strategy or plan to facilitate electricity access for people without garages. IOW is there any front to adjust building codes in parking spaces or car ports to get EV’s electricity access even if it is just a plug for lvl 1 charging?

[CordMcNally]

As of now a model 3 is cheaper than a Camry long term. With this new car, it'll be cheaper to own/operate this than basically anything else.

A majority of Americans aren't in a financial position to buy something based on what is cheapest long term. They typically are only able to buy based on upfront costs. That's also why many auto loans have ridiculous loan lengths now. While there may be a $25k Tesla car, I suspect other auto manufacturers will continue to do what they can to undercut that.