Tesla, the investment

[CordMcNally]

Well battery day/shareholder meeting is tomorrow after trading hours. It's probably the most hyped up event in some time in Tesla history. By Elon (supposed to be mind blowing and big and he even knows what's going on), analysts (traditional and other), and by a 35% increase from recent lows. Seems to be holding (and going) up in the premarket despite the indexes being down.

I'm not sure what they can present that will live up to the hype, but going to probably lay out a plan for the end of ICE vehicles. It may not be in the next 3-5 years, but maybe the next 10-20 years where the majority of new vehicle sales will be EVs if they're able to scale battery production like they want to. Once battery costs decrease more and more, all it'll take is 'financial gurus' to hop on the train saying that it's just much cheaper to buy and own an EV rather than an ICE in the long run. If this really does happen, it'll be interesting to see what'll happen to multiple industries: car dealerships, repair places, oil change places, the supply chain for ICE parts, used car lots, gas stations.

My guess is it'll be over-hyped and under-delivered, kind of like the stock price.

ICE vehicles will be around for a lot longer than people think. There's too much of the population that can't afford the upfront costs and that don't have access to easy charging.

[Tim]

My guess is it'll be over-hyped and under-delivered, kind of like the stock price.

ICE vehicles will be around for a lot longer than people think. There's too much of the population that can't afford the upfront costs and that don't have access to easy charging.

Flip comment but half way serious.
How do you dispose of used batteries?
Does anyone take used flashlight batteries to the hazardous waste disposal center?
When are we going to have permanent disposal facilities for radioactive waste?
I think vehicles will be mixed. Just like gas or electric stoves.

[Lordosis]

What is going to be the rate limiting step in making EVs? Probably the Batteries but what part? Time to make them? Time to mine materials?

I am hopeful that EV will be the future but ICE will be here for a long time if not forever. It is still the rare EV I see in my area. Rural areas take much longer to adapt anyway and it is much more common to be far from Service centers and charging stations and have longer commutes in general. I know plenty of people who drive 100 miles a day easy. I know the range is better then that on most cars but feeling like you have to fill up every day will give people anxiety.

[Nysoz]

Flip comment but half way serious.
How do you dispose of used batteries?
Does anyone take used flashlight batteries to the hazardous waste disposal center?
When are we going to have permanent disposal facilities for radioactive waste?
I think vehicles will be mixed. Just like gas or electric stoves.

You can recycle the batteries. Tesla's original CTO started up a company (Redwood Materials) to do so and recently amazon invested in them. Also, when batteries aren't good enough for EVs, you can re-purpose them into energy storage battery farms.

People recycle and dispose of things when there's a financial incentive to do so. A car battery is like $7.5-10k or so now. Even when they're worth less due to progression, people (maybe not the individual themselves) will have incentive to sell them to recycling companies for $500 or some other figure.

I agree that vehicles will be mixed, but the question will be percentage of all vehicles and percentage of new sales. Just with any new technical revolution, there's going to a curve of adoption. Horses to cars, landline phones to cell phones, home computers. For EVs, it'll come down to safety, ease of charging, upfront and overall life of vehicle cost. Also until battery tech gets much much better, ICE will still be needed for some purposes and areas.

CordMcNally

Battery and upfront vehicle costs are going to come down as the tech improves. In the next 10 years, if battery costs keep going down and energy densities continue to improve, an EV will cost the same as an ICE vehicle up front and cost way less to maintain. The charging issue will be a problem for those that depend on street parking for sure. Parking garages and workplaces can install charging infrastructure for people which can help.

Who knows how long the curve of adoption will take. From random googling, it took 10 years for cars replace horses and bicycles as the primary mode of transportation. Of course, there's going to be some similarities and some differences in the comparison.

[Nysoz]

What is going to be the rate limiting step in making EVs? Probably the Batteries but what part? Time to make them? Time to mine materials?

I am hopeful that EV will be the future but ICE will be here for a long time if not forever. It is still the rare EV I see in my area. Rural areas take much longer to adapt anyway and it is much more common to be far from Service centers and charging stations and have longer commutes in general. I know plenty of people who drive 100 miles a day easy. I know the range is better then that on most cars but feeling like you have to fill up every day will give people anxiety.

From Tesla's last earnings call, Elon was calling out for people to efficiently mine more ethically sourced nickel. So I'm assuming the minerals/materials is the rate limiting step. Once there's an abundance of that, companies can create more battery lines and then more EVs/other applications. The other OEMs will soon realize how hard it is to scale EVs because of the battery limitation. When Tesla was first starting, back of napkin math for the amount of EVs they wanted to make took more batteries than the world's capacity at the time. That's why they built their first gigafactory.

Range anxiety is real at first, but once you realize you start the day with a 'full tank' every day it becomes way more convenient for day to day driving. If that person drives 100 miles a day, figure out the fuel costs with them. My work commute is 40 miles round trip and I'm saving around $200 a month in gas vs electricity. Combine that with maintenance savings of no oil changes, no brakes to replace, it's just cheaper to operate after the initial purchase.

[CordMcNally]

CordMcNally

Battery and upfront vehicle costs are going to come down as the tech improves. In the next 10 years, if battery costs keep going down and energy densities continue to improve, an EV will cost the same as an ICE vehicle up front and cost way less to maintain. The charging issue will be a problem for those that depend on street parking for sure. Parking garages and workplaces can install charging infrastructure for people which can help.

Who knows how long the curve of adoption will take. From random googling, it took 10 years for cars replace horses and bicycles as the primary mode of transportation. Of course, there's going to be some similarities and some differences in the comparison.

That's assuming electricity doesn't increase with the increased demand. That still doesn't include those who live in single family housing (whether renting or owning) that can't afford to shell out $1000 for a Tesla charger to be installed. What's the plan...monthly payments? These people can't afford to buy a new vehicle and will be relegated to buying a much older EV that may be on the verge of needing new batteries. How much does replacing the batteries cost? I like your enthusiasm but there is A LOT of issues that will need solved.

[Nysoz]

That's assuming electricity doesn't increase with the increased demand. That still doesn't include those who live in single family housing (whether renting or owning) that can't afford to shell out $1000 for a Tesla charger to be installed. What's the plan...monthly payments? These people can't afford to buy a new vehicle and will be relegated to buying a much older EV that may be on the verge of needing new batteries. How much does replacing the batteries cost? I like your enthusiasm but there is A LOT of issues that will need solved.

I agree that there's a lot of problems to be solved, but 10 years is a long time for advancements. As of now, the costs of renewable energy keep getting cheaper and cheaper. I'm hoping this continues and more people/governments/companies realize this and make the transition. Once there's an excess of energy production at certain times of the day, there's where energy storage comes in. Either through batteries, gravity, water pumping stations, air compression or whatever else.

You don't need a branded Tesla charger for charging. You just need an outlet for the amount of miles you drive a day. If you drive 30-40 miles a day, a regular 120V outlet is just fine. If you drive more than that, a 240V outlet is needed. Parts and labor will cost $200-300 or so as long as you don't have a complicated run or need a panel upgrade. I'm hoping there's going to be regulation for new construction to be prewired for an extra 240V outlet in garages as that'll make costs even less up front.

With battery day tomorrow there's already 'million mile' batteries from CATL. With the life cycles in newer batteries, it should outlive the rest of the car. New tech is new, of course, and time will tell how accurate this is. N=1 but there's a model 3 out there with 130k miles on it and still retains 98% of charge capacity.

[mgchan]

That's assuming electricity doesn't increase with the increased demand. That still doesn't include those who live in single family housing (whether renting or owning) that can't afford to shell out $1000 for a Tesla charger to be installed. What's the plan...monthly payments? These people can't afford to buy a new vehicle and will be relegated to buying a much older EV that may be on the verge of needing new batteries. How much does replacing the batteries cost? I like your enthusiasm but there is A LOT of issues that will need solved.

I just had a NEMA 14-50 outlet installed for a couple hundred dollars, and had to get an adapter for my Model 3 that was about $50. I've never charged it at a supercharger and only charged it once on the road in about a year when I forgot to charge my car overnight. It obviously isn't for everyone but realistically the bigger issue is people living in apartments where they can't do electrical work. For many, an overnight charge with a standard electrical outlet and charging at work might be fine.

I do think that there will be a relatively rapid switch to electric cars. Beyond just the climate/social reasons, there's a tipping point where gas stations will no longer be a good business, and as gas stations close it will snowball since getting gas will be less convenient and installing electric charging is extremely easy when compared with opening a gas station.

By most accounts, batteries generally out-last the cars at least for usual wear and tear. It's certainly comparable to, if not far cheaper than, the maintenance cost of an ICE at the same mileage. Plus, batteries are getting better and cheaper much faster than ICE.

[fatlittlepig]

I've always believed this and still do: gas is just much more convenient that electricity for a car, fill it up every 4-5 days and not have to think about it. if there was a way i could fill my iphone with gas and not have to charge it for 4-5 days i would do it. just my humble opinion.

[Panscan]

Or you could just charge it every 4-5 days and never think about it. I don’t see the difference with the range of modern EV and how far most people drive.

you can plug in every night or at work and never stop for a recharge/refuel

[xraygoggles]

If you have a house, charging your car is just like charging your phone every night. But most people don't really need to charge daily, unless you are driving 150-200 miles per day, for ex.

As for Battery Day, I have a feeling its going to be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of event.

[fatlittlepig]

Or you could just charge it every 4-5 days and never think about it. I don’t see the difference with the range of modern EV and how far most people drive.

you can plug in every night or at work and never stop for a recharge/refuel

I don't know, it seems like another thing to charge. i already am constantly charging my phone, laptop, camera, battery packs etc

[Lordosis]

It does not happen often but when I forget to plug in my phone or my kid unplugs the other end from the wall outlet and it is plugged in all night and does not actually charge it is a minor hassle. Finding out your car cannot get you to work and back would be more of a hassle. I cannot think of a time where I left so little gas in the car that I had to get gas on the way to work. And if I did I would have known it was coming for a few days.

Again these are easy work arounds but this is the way people think. I do not think adoption will happen en masse until they are cheaper.

[Nysoz]

Unless you drive 150 miles every day you can forget to charge for a night or 2 and then just fill up overnight again.

After a year, taking 5 seconds to plug in the car every night in my garage is much more preferable than stopping at a gas station once a week.

Who knows, maybe some day there will be wireless charging for the car in your garage if Tesla goes the way of Apple and gets rid of charging ports.

[CordMcNally]

I just like to keep my expectations tempered. I believe there were even several people on here that thought the Cyber Truck was going to revolutionize the truck world when in reality it's a non-starter for those that use their truck like an actual truck. If you want to look at land area then I think the ICE will be the most dominant form of personal transportation in most areas of the US for the next quarter century.