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  • Originally posted by burritos View Post
    If you were forced(with a gun to your head) to put all your chips into either Tesla or Bitcoin, which one would it be. Also, are there more Tesla or Bitcoin acolytes. Full disclosure, my 1(now 5 shares of tesla) went from a 400 profit to a 400 loss in one week. Not fun.
    That's a terrible position to be in. That would also be one of the weirder home invasion/robbery/hostage situations that I can imagine.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

      That's a terrible position to be in. That would also be one of the weirder home invasion/robbery/hostage situations that I can imagine.
      Pull trigger plz.

      Tesla is a narrative drive stock that has huge runs to the upside and downside, often without news that is related. It had a massive run, as did the market. Slight cooling off period. This is a volatile stock, should be expected. IV is a decent tell for options, when it becomes impossible to make money even if you're price bought for the call option is right, things will break down (as buying stops).

      Pretending the stock has any sort of place where its going to stop or catch support or resistance is a fools errand. It was in the 200s last year at this time and 2500 last week. Anything could happen, from 40 to 550 (split adjusted) and thats just the range in this year. Nothing would really shock me with this thing.

      Elon seems to have ditched his extremely destructive attitude to raising money, and his timing this year has been epic. This was a self own the last couple years that put them in trouble several times that turned out to be unnecessary.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
        Currently the valuation doesn’t make sense for their car side of business. If you look forward 5-10 years it possibly starts to make sense.

        With 40-50% annual growth, in 5 years they’ll make 3.2M cars a year. As batteries get cheaper and they get more efficient at making the cars through various processes, gross margins will continue to improve. Now gross margins are 25% or so. They can probably get that closer to 30-35% in 5 years.

        Say they sell cars for 40k with gross margins of 30% so that’s 12k profit per car. That’s $38B in profit.

        If they end up matching toyota in the future with 10M sold thats $120B in profit. Lofty goals but the ev market is only going to get bigger and Tesla is the only one that’s poised to ramp up so far. P/E ratios start to look more reasonable. People focusing on current P/E ratios tend to forget the costs of building multiple factories and aggressive expansion.

        On top of that, Tesla sells software upgrades for (relatively) pure profit. For now it’s ‘vaporware’ but as features get more advanced more people will buy them and it’ll cost more. Maybe around 25% of people get the fsd upgrade now.

        So that’s all vehicle side, but I’m really hoping they use this extra cash to make more batteries for energy storage. Worldwide energy storage/arbitrage is going to be the big deal to me.

        I still leave out the whole robotaxi thing for now.

        Tim So two of the points in that article are wrong, or possibly so. You can still order the $35k car but it’s off menu. It’s essentially a software limited version of the $38k car so most everyone opts for that version.

        The other one is that Tesla should still hit 500k vehicles delivered this year despite covid.

        The last point about supercharging locations may be valid in certain markets, but if you look at the US/Western Europe/Eastern China maps its pretty well saturated.
        I agree with you on the battery comment. That’s not talked about enough but I think their battery business has the potential to be their most profitable. Their Powerwalls are already excellent and I fully believe that battery powered homes will be standard technology in the not too distant future. I also am completely sold on EVs for many many reasons. I’ve been driving one for 3 years/50k miles and my excitement for the technology strengthens every day. There’s no doubt in my mind that EVs will absolutely dominate the auto industry someday and I think it will be sooner than many think. I also think Tesla is poised to dominate that industry, especially because of their heavy investment in their charging network.
        BUT, Tesla’s stock price is still completely unjustified and completely whack-a-doo to me. They have all the potential of a super successful company, but it’s been too fast too soon with regard to their stock price. They have a long way to go before their car prices become realistic for most buyers and as such they are currently still a niche product as flp puts it. Another thing that worries me is many (If not most) of their buyers are heavily reliant on cheap financing. What would happen if lending became too expensive or difficult to get? I guess the entire auto industry is the same though.

        As far as their stock goes, there’s too much FOMO going on with it right now and I think that’s the main reason we’re seeing such crazy swings. My personal belief is that their stock price would be justified at around $100/share right now (which translates to $500/share pre-split). For the sake of BCBiker, I hope I’m wrong.
        I’d probably consider investing $10k in them if they got at least close to that price. That would be my buy and hold price. And I mean hold until retirement. I doubt they will though. Too many fools out there, lol. I’ll just have to be happy owning shares indirectly through VTSAX.

        Comment


        • I agree with everyone saying that the stock price and valuation now is very rich or overvalued. Most sane people realize that. Unfortunately the stock manipulators are very good at what they do on both the upside and downside. Fomo and fear plays really big roles in both directions.

          Like I said I’m investing for the long term plans/goals. They really do have a lot to grow and execute to justify their valuation. For the metrics and time frame I’m interested in, they appear to be executing so I’m still invested. I have no doubts there will be lots of big bumps along the way. Paying a premium now (or back when it was 200-300 pre split) saved me a spot in what I think has the potential to be one of the most valuable companies in the future.

          The thing that will make me reconsider is if they don’t execute in a grand plan or some other disruptive tech comes along to beat Tesla at what they’re trying to achieve. The problem for other companies is that Tesla has a large time head start and the talent to continue to innovate.

          As crazy as Elon is, he attracts some of the best engineers and talent in the field. Also their company culture helps speed along improvements in that regard. If someone has a better way of doing things, they can contact Elon or the other person directly to make suggestions. Other companies you typically need to go through your manager and their manager before getting to the right person to make your suggestion.

          Comment


          • The problem is that none of it is proprietary. Tesla has spent a ton of cash and time doing the heavy lifting. The EV technology, power source (batteries, and navigation can be reverse engineered and become commodities. Will Tesla be able to harvest the fruits of their labor is the unknown.
            Which is more important to volume, electric or navigation? No clue and no clue how hard it will be to reverse engineer.

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            • These stock moves aren’t related to those dastardly ne’er-do-wells “The Manipulators”. There is a long and rich history, dating back to The Great Depression, of troubled company CEOs and retail investors blaming these faceless entities when the price action of a stock goes against them.

              Swings like this come from weak hands and amateur investors. Pros would know the price of the inclusion news was already baked into the stock. They sold to retail investors, the week before the inclusion announcement, or bought puts as insurance against this possible scenario if they were in for the long haul.

              Comment


              • Yes some or most of the tech can be reverse engineered and Tesla has done a lot of the heavy lifting. The thing that should keep Tesla ahead is constant improvement/innovation so once other companies reverse engineer something Tesla will have the next iteration out. Once that stops happening then we will have all won because now the world has transitioned to sustainable energy/transport.

                Then there are things that can’t be reverse engineered like their v3 fsd chipset. Toyota and an old nvidia employee said it was at least 4 years ahead of the competition. Is that really necessary or material? Time will tell. In the meantime they’re already developing their v4 chipset.

                Sandy Monroe (some semi known automotive engineer) made a comment about Tesla’s octovalve/Heat pump hvac/cooling/heating system is so complex and Ingenuous it belongs in a jet engine rather than a car.

                Tesla is also trying to revolutionize car manufacturing with the back end of the model Y. Instead of having 70 individual pieces needing robots or people assemble them, it’ll be made in 1 piece. Sooner or later they’re going to shorten wiring harnesses as well.

                Typically things like this don’t happen as quickly in a traditional oem due to old practices, multi year supply chain agreements, hesitancy to change. Are all these things worth a premium? Maybe, maybe not.

                I’m sure there’s a lot of retail and weak hands selling off, but 115M shares is a lot of trading for just retail investors.

                Comment


                • “I’m sure there’s a lot of retail and weak hands selling off, but 115M shares is a lot of trading for just retail investors.”

                  You think Tesla was trading only by retail traders?
                  https://marketchameleon.com/Overview...e/TradingHours
                  Dark pool and block trades are dominate. Not many retail traders actually have a need or access to that. Institutional and professionals do. Whether it’s algorithm or a specific strategy, when there is money to be made the traders will trade. Not an investment by any means.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                    I’m sure there’s a lot of retail and weak hands selling off, but 115M shares is a lot of trading for just retail investors.
                    I would imagine a lot of investment firms/hedge funds that have been holding Tesla for at least one year will be unloading even at the current levels. If it breaks through resistance at 350 or so, then the price could go down hard, maybe to 280 or so, if you believe in chart trends.

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                    • Someone will tell me if I'm wrong here, but short term vs long term tax rates only matter for individuals. The big guys aren't taxed differently if they hold a minute or a decade.

                      The investment firms and hedge funds don't pay everytime they sell, but when they take a distribution or sell shares of the funds itself. The fund manager is probably a C-corp as well and so would pay corporate income tax.

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                      • Originally posted by burritos View Post
                        If you were forced(with a gun to your head) to put all your chips into either Tesla or Bitcoin, which one would it be. Also, are there more Tesla or Bitcoin acolytes. Full disclosure, my 1(now 5 shares of tesla) went from a 400 profit to a 400 loss in one week. Not fun.
                        As an investment, I would prefer Tesla at current prices.

                        However, if there was a third choice of red or black in roulette, I would choose roulette. Better odds than the other 2 IMO.
                        Last edited by Dont_know_mind; 09-10-2020, 07:18 AM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
                          These stock moves aren’t related to those dastardly ne’er-do-wells “The Manipulators”. There is a long and rich history, dating back to The Great Depression, of troubled company CEOs and retail investors blaming these faceless entities when the price action of a stock goes against them.

                          Swings like this come from weak hands and amateur investors. Pros would know the price of the inclusion news was already baked into the stock. They sold to retail investors, the week before the inclusion announcement, or bought puts as insurance against this possible scenario if they were in for the long haul.
                          Sell on the hyped up news.
                          In this case the news was disappointing so double face ripping.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post

                            Sell on the hyped up news.
                            In this case the news was disappointing so double face ripping.
                            But also, Imagine owning a stock long term, and believing in it so much, that you actually short the very stock you are holding, or the broader market that includes the stock, at the same time.....

                            You actually become worst subclass of manipulator.... The villainous ‘Short’. The depraved, immoral, fiendish, mustache-twisting entity that is responsible for everything bad that happens to the stock and, in fact, everything bad that happens in the known universe at any given time.

                            Comment


                            • Forget the universe, save yourself. One salvation and inspiration: Let It Go!
                              https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=qS...MVMqSU560anReg

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                              • Well battery day/shareholder meeting is tomorrow after trading hours. It's probably the most hyped up event in some time in Tesla history. By Elon (supposed to be mind blowing and big and he even knows what's going on), analysts (traditional and other), and by a 35% increase from recent lows. Seems to be holding (and going) up in the premarket despite the indexes being down.

                                I'm not sure what they can present that will live up to the hype, but going to probably lay out a plan for the end of ICE vehicles. It may not be in the next 3-5 years, but maybe the next 10-20 years where the majority of new vehicle sales will be EVs if they're able to scale battery production like they want to. Once battery costs decrease more and more, all it'll take is 'financial gurus' to hop on the train saying that it's just much cheaper to buy and own an EV rather than an ICE in the long run. If this really does happen, it'll be interesting to see what'll happen to multiple industries: car dealerships, repair places, oil change places, the supply chain for ICE parts, used car lots, gas stations.

                                There was also another 'leaked' company email saying they're on pace for another record delivery quarter for the fremont factory. That should put their quarterly deliveries close to 140k with the shanghai factory too.

                                This may be a buy the rumor sell the news type of event, so if it continues to run up the next 2 days, I may sell some of my call options that are close to expiration and hold on to others for delivery numbers. Then exercise the rest of the contracts for shares and hold for ltcg.

                                In other news, Daimler has to pay $1.5B to settle an emissions cheating probe about a week ago. The EU is looking to tighten emissions standards on manufacturers there more so these regulatory credits Tesla are getting may be around for much longer than some people think.

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