Tesla, the investment

[CordMcNally]

I didn't get a chance to see the battery day stuff although I read about it this morning. It seems like the market wasn't impressed. I guess I'm not sure what the expectations were but it looks like those in the 'buy the rumor, sell the news' camp were correct.

[Tim]

“I'm being ridiculous about filling up the gas tank, but all those scenarios I'm sure everyone's faced one time or another.”
But I juggle a coffee cup, phone and probably something I need to drop off inside. At least if I remember to come back out to plug in the car I won’t have to wait for a traffic light cycle. Top it off, I hate getting a greeting of “Shut the door”!
Response is usually, “I gotta go”!
Might miss that gas station. I know, it’s ridiculous.
Time at gas pump or plugging in a charger are ridiculous arguments either way. Time at a charger at an inopportune time could be a different issue.

[Nysoz]

I don’t get the avoiding gas stations argument. There is a gas station on the right hand side of the road on every major pathway every 1/4 mile around here. Most are open 24 hours. It takes 3 footsteps and 120 seconds total to fill up a tank and drive away. If I’m working a lot, I can seriously go 3-4 weeks in between fill ups, as work, stores, shopping are all within a mile or two of my house. I’d hate charging every night and it would take more time and effort for me, than getting gas.

Everyone's different but it's just something you have to experience and get used to I guess. The gas station I used to go to was at a kinda busier intersection, still on the right hand side so easy to pull off. If it was busy sometimes I would have to wait to get a pump. Sometimes the card reader wouldn't work or the sun was shining in a way so I couldn't read the display and would have to go in and try to guess how much to put on the pump. Gas fumes aren't the most pleasant smell but really didn't notice most of the time. Sometimes for whatever reason I got a slow pump that would take longer than the 120 seconds, but I already invested my time getting set up for this one so I didn't want to move to another pump. No matter how much I jiggled the pump, I always seemed to dribble a bit on my car or the ground. Sometimes when pulling out of the gas station, if traffic was backed up, I would have to wait a traffic light cycle to get out.

Now, when I pull into my garage and get out, I walk 3 steps back to the charging port, pull the charging cable off the wall, hit the button on the handle and plug in the car then go into the house. I typically charge my car to 80% which gives me 240 miles of range (it's safe to do 90% or 270 miles) and my commute is 40 miles or so. That means I can safely do 5 commutes before charging up again if I wanted to or if I forgot. If your driving habits have you fill up every 3-4 weeks, then you can probably go 2 weeks in between charging.

I'm being ridiculous about filling up the gas tank, but all those scenarios I'm sure everyone's faced one time or another.

[Tim]

Did you get the robo model version 3.11 version?
I love having coffee or coming home to a fresh cut lawn. That self navigation is awesome. Can’t wait for the hedge trimmer.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

I don’t get the avoiding gas stations argument. There is a gas station on the right hand side of the road on every major pathway every 1/4 mile around here. Most are open 24 hours. It takes 3 footsteps and 120 seconds total to fill up a tank and drive away. If I’m working a lot, I can seriously go 3-4 weeks in between fill ups, as work, stores, shopping are all within a mile or two of my house. I’d hate charging every night and it would take more time and effort for me, than getting gas.

That being said, I don’t like storing gas and oil, so I did buy my 1st battery powered lawnmower the other day. I just don’t want gas cans to store in the garage, as our garage is pretty much just like another room in the house at this point. We will see if it can get the job done. I’m calling it “The CyberMower”. I’m thinking of getting one of those million mile batteries, from battery day, for it.

[CordMcNally]

I just like to keep my expectations tempered. I believe there were even several people on here that thought the Cyber Truck was going to revolutionize the truck world when in reality it's a non-starter for those that use their truck like an actual truck. If you want to look at land area then I think the ICE will be the most dominant form of personal transportation in most areas of the US for the next quarter century.

[Nysoz]

Unless you drive 150 miles every day you can forget to charge for a night or 2 and then just fill up overnight again.

After a year, taking 5 seconds to plug in the car every night in my garage is much more preferable than stopping at a gas station once a week.

Who knows, maybe some day there will be wireless charging for the car in your garage if Tesla goes the way of Apple and gets rid of charging ports.

[Lordosis]

It does not happen often but when I forget to plug in my phone or my kid unplugs the other end from the wall outlet and it is plugged in all night and does not actually charge it is a minor hassle. Finding out your car cannot get you to work and back would be more of a hassle. I cannot think of a time where I left so little gas in the car that I had to get gas on the way to work. And if I did I would have known it was coming for a few days.

Again these are easy work arounds but this is the way people think. I do not think adoption will happen en masse until they are cheaper.

[fatlittlepig]

Or you could just charge it every 4-5 days and never think about it. I don’t see the difference with the range of modern EV and how far most people drive.

you can plug in every night or at work and never stop for a recharge/refuel

I don't know, it seems like another thing to charge. i already am constantly charging my phone, laptop, camera, battery packs etc

[xraygoggles]

If you have a house, charging your car is just like charging your phone every night. But most people don't really need to charge daily, unless you are driving 150-200 miles per day, for ex.

As for Battery Day, I have a feeling its going to be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of event.

[Panscan]

Or you could just charge it every 4-5 days and never think about it. I don’t see the difference with the range of modern EV and how far most people drive.

you can plug in every night or at work and never stop for a recharge/refuel

[fatlittlepig]

I've always believed this and still do: gas is just much more convenient that electricity for a car, fill it up every 4-5 days and not have to think about it. if there was a way i could fill my iphone with gas and not have to charge it for 4-5 days i would do it. just my humble opinion.

[mgchan]

That's assuming electricity doesn't increase with the increased demand. That still doesn't include those who live in single family housing (whether renting or owning) that can't afford to shell out $1000 for a Tesla charger to be installed. What's the plan...monthly payments? These people can't afford to buy a new vehicle and will be relegated to buying a much older EV that may be on the verge of needing new batteries. How much does replacing the batteries cost? I like your enthusiasm but there is A LOT of issues that will need solved.

I just had a NEMA 14-50 outlet installed for a couple hundred dollars, and had to get an adapter for my Model 3 that was about $50. I've never charged it at a supercharger and only charged it once on the road in about a year when I forgot to charge my car overnight. It obviously isn't for everyone but realistically the bigger issue is people living in apartments where they can't do electrical work. For many, an overnight charge with a standard electrical outlet and charging at work might be fine.

I do think that there will be a relatively rapid switch to electric cars. Beyond just the climate/social reasons, there's a tipping point where gas stations will no longer be a good business, and as gas stations close it will snowball since getting gas will be less convenient and installing electric charging is extremely easy when compared with opening a gas station.

By most accounts, batteries generally out-last the cars at least for usual wear and tear. It's certainly comparable to, if not far cheaper than, the maintenance cost of an ICE at the same mileage. Plus, batteries are getting better and cheaper much faster than ICE.

[Nysoz]

That's assuming electricity doesn't increase with the increased demand. That still doesn't include those who live in single family housing (whether renting or owning) that can't afford to shell out $1000 for a Tesla charger to be installed. What's the plan...monthly payments? These people can't afford to buy a new vehicle and will be relegated to buying a much older EV that may be on the verge of needing new batteries. How much does replacing the batteries cost? I like your enthusiasm but there is A LOT of issues that will need solved.

I agree that there's a lot of problems to be solved, but 10 years is a long time for advancements. As of now, the costs of renewable energy keep getting cheaper and cheaper. I'm hoping this continues and more people/governments/companies realize this and make the transition. Once there's an excess of energy production at certain times of the day, there's where energy storage comes in. Either through batteries, gravity, water pumping stations, air compression or whatever else.

You don't need a branded Tesla charger for charging. You just need an outlet for the amount of miles you drive a day. If you drive 30-40 miles a day, a regular 120V outlet is just fine. If you drive more than that, a 240V outlet is needed. Parts and labor will cost $200-300 or so as long as you don't have a complicated run or need a panel upgrade. I'm hoping there's going to be regulation for new construction to be prewired for an extra 240V outlet in garages as that'll make costs even less up front.

With battery day tomorrow there's already 'million mile' batteries from CATL. With the life cycles in newer batteries, it should outlive the rest of the car. New tech is new, of course, and time will tell how accurate this is. N=1 but there's a model 3 out there with 130k miles on it and still retains 98% of charge capacity.

[CordMcNally]

CordMcNally

Battery and upfront vehicle costs are going to come down as the tech improves. In the next 10 years, if battery costs keep going down and energy densities continue to improve, an EV will cost the same as an ICE vehicle up front and cost way less to maintain. The charging issue will be a problem for those that depend on street parking for sure. Parking garages and workplaces can install charging infrastructure for people which can help.

Who knows how long the curve of adoption will take. From random googling, it took 10 years for cars replace horses and bicycles as the primary mode of transportation. Of course, there's going to be some similarities and some differences in the comparison.

That's assuming electricity doesn't increase with the increased demand. That still doesn't include those who live in single family housing (whether renting or owning) that can't afford to shell out $1000 for a Tesla charger to be installed. What's the plan...monthly payments? These people can't afford to buy a new vehicle and will be relegated to buying a much older EV that may be on the verge of needing new batteries. How much does replacing the batteries cost? I like your enthusiasm but there is A LOT of issues that will need solved.