Tesla, the investment

[Nysoz]

I'm guessing that is new vehicle sales and not just cars. That is going to be skewed heavily by the fact that trucks and SUVs dominant new vehicle sales and typically have pretty high price tags.

https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/

I used this which just says light vehicle sales

[Nysoz]

That “analyst” needs to do more research lol. There won’t be mic cars driving around the us. The Shanghai factory is for the Asia market and maybe Europe/Australia. Why would Tesla build a car in China then ship it to the us with import taxes or whatever else there is, instead of just building one in California or Texas?

They also talk about us/China trade tensions escalating through 2030. Something needs to be done about China but the only tension was because of trump. Even if he wins that’s 4 more years and then terms can be renegotiated again.

Chinese people love western brands and culture. They love their Apple products and fancy cars to show off their status.

https://m.benzinga.com/article/17744415

[CordMcNally]

Well to compound on that, apparently the average price of a new car sale is $38k.

I'm guessing that is new vehicle sales and not just cars. That is going to be skewed heavily by the fact that trucks and SUVs dominant new vehicle sales and typically have pretty high price tags.

[Nysoz]

Well to compound on that, apparently the average price of a new car sale is $38k. I guess people don’t worry about sticker price and see what kind of monthly payment they can get. Once Dave Ramsey or someone else says an ev is just much cheaper than a gas car people will slowly come around.

I don’t think any other oem can sell an ev at a profit yet (maybe Porsche?). Trying to undercut Tesla while losing their ice sales is going to be a steep hill to climb. Apparently ford and gm are in Uber debt as it is.

Tesla isn’t doing anything to promote charging in structures. For a while they were giving away some wall chargers to businesses for them to install but don’t know if that’s a thing still or not. For mass adoption that’s one of the problems to solve. Charging at home/on the street/work. Otherwise it’s just going to be like now having to go to a charging station once a week or something. They are constantly building out their supercharging network though.

[burritos]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla...203938920.html

Interesting prognostication. If true, lack of growth in China could be an issue with regards to continued stock price rise.

[CordMcNally]

As of now a model 3 is cheaper than a Camry long term. With this new car, it'll be cheaper to own/operate this than basically anything else.

A majority of Americans aren't in a financial position to buy something based on what is cheapest long term. They typically are only able to buy based on upfront costs. That's also why many auto loans have ridiculous loan lengths now. While there may be a $25k Tesla car, I suspect other auto manufacturers will continue to do what they can to undercut that.

[burritos]

Does tesla have any strategy or plan to facilitate electricity access for people without garages. IOW is there any front to adjust building codes in parking spaces or car ports to get EV’s electricity access even if it is just a plug for lvl 1 charging?

[Nysoz]

It just further accelerates Teslas goal of a more sustainable future. Lots of people bash tesla because it's too expensive and seen as a luxury. With a $25k car, it'll be more accessible to the masses. As of now a model 3 is cheaper than a Camry long term. With this new car, it'll be cheaper to own/operate this than basically anything else.

Also provides mass cheap cars to flood the road if anyone believes in their robotaxi future.

[CordMcNally]

https://insideevs.com/news/446773/te...oes-it-add-up/

$25,000 tesla car. Gonna happen? Not gonna happen? Meh either way?

That doesn’t get me excited. I’m sure they could do it to say they did it but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a car that doesn’t excite consumers.

[burritos]

https://insideevs.com/news/446773/te...oes-it-add-up/

$25,000 tesla car. Gonna happen? Not gonna happen? Meh either way?

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

“Battery Day” seemed like a stock-pumping event looking for news. I don’t blame Musk. He is a brilliant marketer, and modern day PT Barnum. I’m sure the the date was strategically chosen to coincide with the ideal time in the yearly cycle for giving the stock a lift.

[xraygoggles]

Well, Battery Day has passed, and it was definitely a flop. Everything Nysoz said above is a fairly good summary.

I wasn't too impressed tbh, and it's obvious the current price has all those things already priced in, and much more. The 25k cars could be a game-changer in the future, but again, that may take 3-5 years (or more).

I think we will have a better idea of the real competition to Tesla in 2021-22 as more and more companies bring out their EVs.

[Tim]

I wouldn’t fall in love with the company or stock.

Vaporware if you ever considered buy yet to be developed software.

[fatlittlepig]

So looks like battery day was a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event. It really showed a clear path and technology/battery manufacturing breakthroughs that gives Tesla a good chance at being the most valuable company in the world in 10 years. I know the market is forward looking but we'll see how forward looking it is once things settle down and analysts get to figure out the information presented. (They have to get through the typical awkward Elon presentation)

Biggest slide was 54% increase in range, 56% decrease in $/kwh, 69% decrease in investment per gwh

Tesla's pilot battery line with new in house tech/manufacturing aims for 100 gwh in 2022 and scales to 3 twh by 2030. They're still buying as many batteries as they can from Panasonic, LG, CATL, and 'others' in the meantime. By comparison (very rough numbers), they're using around 35 gwh from Panasonic now for around $24B in revenue. In 2030, 3 twh would mean $2T in revenue. Even if they pass on the savings to customers, that's $1T in revenue likely split between vehicles and energy storage.

The separate manufacturing improvements all add up to change the direction of the battery cost curve. The goal was to have $70-100/kwh but apparently they have a path to get to $50-70 now. It'll take 1.5-3 years to realize these changes and profit.

Important to note that the current pilot battery line is working, but not high yield. Still working out the kinks to get high yield and to be able to scale to where they want it.

They're trying to get factories to be more efficient per floor space. They claim that current factories are around 2-3% efficient and want to get to 20-30% efficient.

Bringing battery recycling in house. Once the world becomes electrified, they won't have to mine anymore and will create new batteries from old recycled ones.

The batteries are going to be structural in a car redesign. Parts of the car redesign is mega casting which reduces cost and pieces to put together, simplifying manufacturing.

Reiterated 30-40% growth which puts them close to the 500k vehicles this year. Long term their goal is 20M cars a year. Hinted at a $25k car, but no information other than possibly 3 years out.

Plaid model S numbers were unveiled to compete with the lucid air/Porsche taycan. 0-60 in < 2 sec, >520 mile range, 200 MPH top speed, $140k price. 1:30 time at laguna seca track, trying to beat all production cars ever made. Can order now but available in about a year.

Private beta of new autopilot rewrite possibly in a month (Elon time).

500-600k+ cybertruck preorders, important to note that it was $100 refundable so not sure how many will turn into real orders/deliveries.

So overall, definitely good long term potential and a path to success, but they have to execute. Their timelines are always in question and there's no immediate benefit/value which is why I'm sure it sold off a bit. Long term investing, I still think there's a path to being the most valuable company in the world while trying to make it a better place. The question for investors is, do you believe that Tesla can execute and perform and believe that electrification is the future?

I wouldn’t fall in love with the company or stock.

[Nysoz]

So looks like battery day was a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event. It really showed a clear path and technology/battery manufacturing breakthroughs that gives Tesla a good chance at being the most valuable company in the world in 10 years. I know the market is forward looking but we'll see how forward looking it is once things settle down and analysts get to figure out the information presented. (They have to get through the typical awkward Elon presentation)

Biggest slide was 54% increase in range, 56% decrease in $/kwh, 69% decrease in investment per gwh

Tesla's pilot battery line with new in house tech/manufacturing aims for 100 gwh in 2022 and scales to 3 twh by 2030. They're still buying as many batteries as they can from Panasonic, LG, CATL, and 'others' in the meantime. By comparison (very rough numbers), they're using around 35 gwh from Panasonic now for around $24B in revenue. In 2030, 3 twh would mean $2T in revenue. Even if they pass on the savings to customers, that's $1T in revenue likely split between vehicles and energy storage.

The separate manufacturing improvements all add up to change the direction of the battery cost curve. The goal was to have $70-100/kwh but apparently they have a path to get to $50-70 now. It'll take 1.5-3 years to realize these changes and profit.

Important to note that the current pilot battery line is working, but not high yield. Still working out the kinks to get high yield and to be able to scale to where they want it.

They're trying to get factories to be more efficient per floor space. They claim that current factories are around 2-3% efficient and want to get to 20-30% efficient.

Bringing battery recycling in house. Once the world becomes electrified, they won't have to mine anymore and will create new batteries from old recycled ones.

The batteries are going to be structural in a car redesign. Parts of the car redesign is mega casting which reduces cost and pieces to put together, simplifying manufacturing.

Reiterated 30-40% growth which puts them close to the 500k vehicles this year. Long term their goal is 20M cars a year. Hinted at a $25k car, but no information other than possibly 3 years out.

Plaid model S numbers were unveiled to compete with the lucid air/Porsche taycan. 0-60 in < 2 sec, >520 mile range, 200 MPH top speed, $140k price. 1:30 time at laguna seca track, trying to beat all production cars ever made. Can order now but available in about a year.

Private beta of new autopilot rewrite possibly in a month (Elon time).

500-600k+ cybertruck preorders, important to note that it was $100 refundable so not sure how many will turn into real orders/deliveries.

So overall, definitely good long term potential and a path to success, but they have to execute. Their timelines are always in question and there's no immediate benefit/value which is why I'm sure it sold off a bit. Long term investing, I still think there's a path to being the most valuable company in the world while trying to make it a better place. The question for investors is, do you believe that Tesla can execute and perform and believe that electrification is the future?