Tesla, the investment

[Brains428]

Elon puts out a twitter poll to see if he should sell 10% of his TSLA stock. His brother sold $110MM worth of it yesterday per filings.

Nothing to see here.

[Lordosis]

Even if it is overpriced it all depends on how long it can stay overpriced.

“The stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

[Nysoz]

Interesting moves by Tesla today and yesterday.

I'm speculating it was a squeeze just like the initial GME one. After good earnings and the Hertz news, someone saw that basically all the call options were ITM. They bought enough shares and calls so the option writers 'had to' write more options. They then 'had to' buy more underlying shares to delta hedge the new options they wrote which kept squeezing up. Once people started profit taking, the option writers were then free to sell the shares back popping the bubble. All speculation for sure.

As for overpriced or not, at this level I think it's slightly overpriced. The earnings showed better margins and continued growth. The problem with comparing it to other OEMs is that making an EV just isn't the same as an ICE car. People are assuming the OEMs can just copy Tesla, but those factories and supply chains are big ships to turn around. OEMs will be very hard pressed to get close to the same profit margins as Tesla due to the vertical integration and continued innovation. OEMs also have to figure out what to do with their traditional dealership model.

This is also just their EV business. If they're able to pull a rabbit out of their hat with autonomy, AI, energy (like Amazon did with AWS), then the disruption will spill over into a lot of industries we may not even be able to imagine now.

Personally, I have my set shares I want so I'm not buying anymore, but diversifying into QQQ with new cash flow to have some stability in the portfolio and keep an even ratio in the future.

[xraygoggles]

Gotta give props where props are due: creating the #1 most valuable private company, and now #5 most valuable public company is nothing to sneeze at.

[CordMcNally]

Musk is now worth $288B, more than Exxon Mobil. Sadly that oil giant, which was once the biggest company in the world, is going downhill fast.

The likely energy issues coming this winter should help slow their skid.

[Kamban]

I thought I saw (but now can’t find it) that Tesla was now worth as much as the next 14 largest car manufacturers. Is Tesla overpriced, are the others underpriced, somewhere between, or is that an accurate price for all of them?

Musk is now worth $288B, more than Exxon Mobil. Sadly that oil giant, which was once the biggest company in the world, is going downhill fast.

When SpaceX becomes public and its price zooms, Must will be worth half a trillion dollars.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

Interesting moves by Tesla today and yesterday.
Reminds me of how much I like the “Elongated Muskrat” song….
(Warning explicit lyrics)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqyXvMrQDk8

[CordMcNally]

I thought I saw (but now can’t find it) that Tesla was now worth as much as the next 14 largest car manufacturers. Is Tesla overpriced, are the others underpriced, somewhere between, or is that an accurate price for all of them?

[Kamban]

1 trillion market cap...

Thanks to Hertz ordering 100K cars.

[xraygoggles]

1 trillion market cap...

[Tim]

"I personally think it makes much more sense to keep fsd tied to an account. It would allow people to easily upgrade their car without fear of having to pay for fsd again. Encourage people to stay in the Tesla ecosystem. Then since it’s a piece of software you “own” you can choose to keep fsd on your account or sell it to someone else.

Id buy fsd now and I’m sure a lot others would as well to lock in the price if it would transfer from car to car or if I can resell it later as fsd gets more expensive.",

This may end up where it goes. SOS, software BUT to make it a money maker you have to charge for upgrades and/or a subscription type feel. Been done before. Think Microsoft, it cannot be a one time fee. Plausible and license it to other manufacturers as well. Hardware compatibility and industry standards would evolve.IBM could have bought Windows for chump change. The choices made are significant to the future.IBM bet on OS2. End of the story.

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[Nysoz]

Yeah Elon has started to underpromise and over deliver except for fsd. He constantly hypes that up and it’ll be ready in “two weeks”.

One thing they do is not realize all of the money paid for fsd in case there is some class action lawsuit I’m assuming. That way they can refund some money worst case scenario. As more features get released the more of it they realize.

Id be super frustrated for paying for fsd and not getting all the features for sure. When enhanced autopilot was available I bought that. Is the software worth the money for the features you get? That’s completely subjective. I’m happy with my eap purchase and wouldn’t be happy with fsd at this time. In the distant future when fsd does work, you don’t have to drive anymore, and now costs $20,000 will it be worth buying it early at $7k? If you’re able to send it out as a robotaxi to earn money and now costs $100k?

I personally think it makes much more sense to keep fsd tied to an account. It would allow people to easily upgrade their car without fear of having to pay for fsd again. Encourage people to stay in the Tesla ecosystem. Then since it’s a piece of software you “own” you can choose to keep fsd on your account or sell it to someone else.

Id buy fsd now and I’m sure a lot others would as well to lock in the price if it would transfer from car to car or if I can resell it later as fsd gets more expensive.

[CordMcNally]

What happened to under promise and over deliver? I feel like Tesla has been doing it backwards and it's only a matter of time before it catches up to them.

[Zaphod]

Selling FSD as if it were a possibility when it isnt given the state of sensors, etc...is their biggest liability/risk in the intermediate term. There has yet to be consequences but the tide seems to be changing on a regulatory front.

[White.Beard.Doc]

As for investing and the possibility of it blowing up, all my price targets/goals doesn't include much FSD revenue at all.

In my opinion, the new FSD issues that have bubbled up to the surface will quite likely lead to a broad based loss of love for Tesla vehicles in general, across the board. How people feel about a product is everything in terms of building a brand. Tesla owners loved their vehicles for a long time and served as brand ambassadors that led to sales.

In my opinion, the current FSD mess will extend to how Tesla owners feel as far as their overall satisfaction with their vehicles. I have been a Tesla fan since 2012. My family has owned 4 Tesla vehicles. The drivetrains are amazing.

The fit and finish remains disappointing. And now the daily reminder of how much of a mess the software is comes from the "safety score" which is highly flawed. For example, I cannot depart my circular driveway because the vehicle thinks that the stone wall along the edge of the driveway is an unsafe driving situation. So before I have departed the edge of my property, the Tesla safety alert goes off, my driving score gets dinged, and my vehicle tells me what a loser of an unsafe driver I am. Hah!

How do you think I am feeling about the fact that I paid $7000 for FSD with software that erroneously thinks I don't know how to drive and will never allow me to use the FSD feature that I paid for? I used to feel excited and happy every time I got into the car to drive somewhere. That torque! That smooth, liquid acceleration! And now the thought I have as I leave the house each day is, "Holy sh!t, this software sucks!"