Tesla, the investment

[BCBiker]

do you have an exit plan?

Ya. Hold to 1 year for current contracts. There are 8 of them I might sell earlier because they expire 2 days after 1st anniversary. Those are approaching $1M alone. Would not be end of World to have that cash right now even with tax consequences.

[Tim]

Elon is motivated by more than car and batteries. $2.1B bonus.

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gjnpwxeemvw/Pasted%20image%201595350556523.png

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-musk-qualifies-2-1-190929867.html

[Nysoz]

So Tesla beat on revenues and eps. Jumped up a little in the AH and slowly going flat this morning. Looks like the ~ 50% jump from the start of month has priced this in.

The next catalyst will be probable S&P inclusion and what that'll do. Supposedly they'll meet third friday of september, but I'm sure the committee might've already discussed this in advance. Who knows what this will do. I think the latest increase was from big buyers getting ready for inclusion but I don't know if those are buying to buy, or buying to transfer into their S&P funds. There still may be a squeeze surrounding official inclusion, but not as big as the VW one.

After that is battery day on 9/22. Elon keeps hyping this up, so we'll see what gets unveiled. new pilot battery line and efficiencies, possibly the plaid power train.

[xraygoggles]

So Tesla beat on revenues and eps. Jumped up a little in the AH and slowly going flat this morning. Looks like the ~ 50% jump from the start of month has priced this in.

The next catalyst will be probable S&P inclusion and what that'll do. Supposedly they'll meet third friday of september, but I'm sure the committee might've already discussed this in advance. Who knows what this will do. I think the latest increase was from big buyers getting ready for inclusion but I don't know if those are buying to buy, or buying to transfer into their S&P funds. There still may be a squeeze surrounding official inclusion, but not as big as the VW one.

After that is battery day on 9/22. Elon keeps hyping this up, so we'll see what gets unveiled. new pilot battery line and efficiencies, possibly the plaid power train.

Or this could be an example of "buy the rumor, sell the news" that we are seeing. There's no way to tell, it's so volatile both ways.

[Brains428]

bumping this... because...1621 and the future split. Any thoughts from the experts?

[CordMcNally]

bumping this... because...1621 and the future split. Any thoughts from the experts?

Anyone that thinks they have an explanation or knows what's next likely doesn't.

[Brains428]

Anyone that thinks they have an explanation or knows what's next likely doesn't.

It is interesting how polarizing the company can be. It may be the company that is most reflective of the current market. I did think about purchasing some a couple days ago when it dipped below $1400, but resisted.

[Nysoz]

For some reason stock splits end up running share price higher. Purely psychological especially in the days of fractional share ownership but who knows.

Latest increase also come in as “analysts” are increasing price targets. I think slowly more and more people are realizing you can’t value TSLA only as a car company. Even then they’re trying to improve manufacturing efficiency (even though they still need to button down fit and finish) by making the car in a less complicated process.

Also lately the last few price increases are from hyping up battery day and how it can be potentially groundbreaking.

I still have a decent amount of long dated calls and I’ll probably sell a couple before battery day and a couple after.

Ive also been toying around with buying shares on margin and selling covered calls on them. Definitely higher risk but higher reward/free money as long as share price stays neutral or bullish.

[burritos]

It is interesting how polarizing the company can be. It may be the company that is most reflective of the current market. I did think about purchasing some a couple days ago when it dipped below $1400, but resisted.

same here, just plunking into total market and feeling bad about it.

[xraygoggles]

So... 2k is approaching.

This time last year, the price was at 225.

Obviously overvalued, but if things pan out, could keep reaching for the moon over the next few years.

[Nysoz]

Personally I think this is a buy the rumor sell the news type run up like the q2 deliveries to q2 earnings in regards to the huge run up from just a stock split announcement. The problem I face in taking profits off the table is S&P inclusion or game changing info released at battery day or the new FSD visualizations/rewrite or hoards of new investors because the stock is 'cheaper'

When the unknown S&P inclusion happens it'll possibly trigger a large buying frenzy from index funds. It may be the big institutions buying now in other areas and can transfer to their S&P funds later after the announcement so who knows what's happening there. There have been some large green candles in the past few couple of weeks.

Battery day has potential new densities or costs. Also as of now Tesla car batteries are tons of batteries in modules. This was to prevent potential bad batteries from ruining the entire pack. Since their manufacturing process have improved, it's no longer necessary to place them in modules. If they can go directly cell to pack, it decreases weight (making the car more efficient/longer range) or allows more batteries (longer range/power). As of now, batteries supposedly cost around $130 per kWh. If they announce their price is now $80-100 due to scale/manufacturing process, when oems have to buy from 3rd party for $130, that's a game changer.

They'll likely show off their plaid model s power train. Lucid air is threatening to take the range crown (517 miles). Elon and Tesla do have an ego problem of needing to be the best, so I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to make the model s 600 mile range.

FSD is supposedly getting a full rewrite and will be ready to alpha/beta release to select people in 6-10 weeks Elon time. With FSD 'feature complete' this will allow them to fully realize the rest of their deferred revenue. Maybe about 30% of people get the FSD option now. If there's another 30% out there that decide to get it once it's 'feature complete' before the next price raise, there's potential an extra $3B or so of revenue in a software update over the air.

They're also slowly getting more large scale utility battery backup contracts.

So the valuation is certainly rich and pricing in forward perfection. But if Tesla continues to execute their plans (shanghai expansion, berlin/austin factory, semi production, expansion of energy storage, new batteries) it can be potentially reasonable.

I personally don't value the whole robotaxi argument so I purposefully leave that out. But if it ever happens, that's another multiple in valuation.

[mgchan]

In my opinion the rise from $400 to $2000 was basically a massive short squeeze. There's been no fundamental change in the company. The stock was basically dead money for 5 years. Overvalued now from most financial perspectives, but its position in the market is unlikely to change any time soon so it is valued where it will be valued. I believe in the technology and its vision, but I just see better, more stable/secure returns elsewhere.

[Tim]

Long term depends on battery technology. Solid state glass might be a problem. That could be in 3 years or 13 years. They don't have the patent. Who knows.

[burritos]

Is there any chance China will steal Tesla tech and undercut them down the line?

[Tim]

Is there any chance China will steal Tesla tech and undercut them down the line?

Not if you ask the Chinese.
When you travel to China for business, the "security instructions" are, you will be followed, your belongings (everything) is like an open book. Everything thing you say and do can and will be used against you. Nothing is private. Key sign? If someone speaks to you in English, best to assume you are being probed.