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  • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
    Tim everyone has goals in their life to motivate them, to wake up and work or give purpose in life. Elon’s goals are sustainable energy/transport on earth and colonizing mars.

    hes already the “7th richest person on earth” passing buffet. Do I think he’ll get tired and bored if he becomes 1st? I don’t think so. He’s a nerdy engineer type that likes to prove people wrong. I don’t think he’ll get tired or bored until his goals are realized.

    watch videos of him watching his rockets go off or landing, him talking about the cyber truck in production, new battery technology, the new roadster. He’s like a kid enamored by these small progresses of his end goal. So I don’t think he’ll get bored anytime soon.

    to bring it back to investing, there’s theories about infinite gamma around. Like TSLA in the past the stock was manipulated to be low by short sellers, Now I think it’s being manipulated higher by other people. Not sure who. Someone bought 500k worth of the $1500 calls 0-1 dte when it was trading at $1380 or so. There was no real catalyst to explain Friday’s jump unless there was insider information about large funds buying in or forcing algos or the option writers to buy shares to cover their calls. There’s crazy forces pushing the share price higher. Will we see a yahoo 64% jump from inclusion into the s&p? A vw 300-600% jump? Who knows anymore. The knife will fall if Tesla fails to make a profit or sometime after s&p inclusion is my guess.

    Premiums are insane for options sellers. I can sell 7/24 $2400C for $2k in premium. $4k for the $2000 strike price. theres already activity in the $2500 7dte calls as well.
    One theory on that $500K bet is that a large short position hedged their capitulation trade, knowing it would run up the stock.

    As someone who has thrown caution to wind on a what i currently call nominal amount of money (Formerly mortgage payment) with out of money option day before expiration and made 1200% gain from holding position for 2 hours of market time, those do come up. What was exceptional about this trade was that there was no public news to drive up price so it seems a little strange. That being said $500K is not a lot to lose for many in this game if there is a greater than say 10% chance of major payoff.

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    • Opportunistic funds getting in before indexes.
      Others pile on.
      Millions of shares shortfall anticipated etc. etc.
      Would not be surprised if it sells off on the day of SP inclusion.

      The autonomous driving deep data usefulness is hard to guess. There are a lot of companies working on computer vision AI. You need a PhD in the area to get in the door. I don’t think we have any edge in being able to anticipate things there. It is funny that we don’t speculate on biotech because we know what we don’t know with that.

      Tesla looks pretty overdone, but the tech narrative might have a bit further to go with the virus issues currently, so who knows.

      I tend to think we’ve entered tech bubble territory now. It may not last as long as the late 90’s as the socioeconomic background is too depressing. I had thought things would hold out until November/election but I have my doubts now.

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      • What I’ll probably start doing is looking into setting some stop losses/limits on the calls I bought and sell some covered calls at a strike I’d be more than happy selling my shares at.

        If the shares come back to a reasonable price I’ll buy back in. If not then I’ve made plenty of money from this run up to speed up fire by years.
        Last edited by Nysoz; 07-12-2020, 12:49 PM.

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        • The website says that the shorts are sold out

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          • https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...KCN24C0TY?il=0

            They're cutting the Model Y price.

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            • Originally posted by Brains428 View Post
              Wow. Thanks for the heads up. Called them and they've granted the price adjustment.

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              • Originally posted by burritos View Post

                Wow. Thanks for the heads up. Called them and they've granted the price adjustment.
                My finder's fee is discounted at $1000. I'll PM you my venmo.

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                • I think the price cut is good news - it could mean that they are optimizing and streamlining the production.

                  The alternative is the model Y numbers to date have been lower than anticipated, and they need more sales.

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                  • Originally posted by Brains428 View Post

                    My finder's fee is discounted at $1000. I'll PM you my venmo.
                    I'm gen x. What's venmo?

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                    • Originally posted by burritos View Post

                      I'm gen x. What's venmo?
                      An app to transfer money. Sorta like Zelle.

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                      • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
                        I think the price cut is good news - it could mean that they are optimizing and streamlining the production.

                        The alternative is the model Y numbers to date have been lower than anticipated, and they need more sales.
                        “Demand is strong. We are selling so many, we’ve decided to just cut the price so we make less money!”

                        .....That would be a unique approach.

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                        • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                          I just put a large chunk in the market without thinking about it. Feels good and short term market fluctuations won't change that feeling for me.
                          Ok I allocated excess cash from the last month Into an index fund today. My effort at market timing based on the Tesla share price or whatever I believe indicates what values should be was not successful. Live to fight another day (or next month!).

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                          • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post

                            “Demand is strong. We are selling so many, we’ve decided to just cut the price so we make less money!”

                            .....That would be a unique approach.
                            Tesla's main mission is accelerating the world towards sustainable transport and energy. The more they discount cars the more they'll make the available to the masses. More Teslas on the road means less ICE cars, less pollution, more free data from real world driving for the neural net/autopilot system. Also, making the need for EV infrastructure more apparent and showing how EVs are viable to the masses.

                            They wouldn't decrease the price if they're still not able to make a profit. I think this is more for what what'll be shown for battery day. Their costs for batteries are getting cheaper and cheaper that it's going to be the same price as a competing ICE car. Rumors are that Tesla Shanhai is going to develop an even smaller car that'll cost $20k for the masses. Tesla Berlin may develop a hatchback that's popular in Europe.

                            This is going to be a problem for the traditional auto companies as they're so entrenched in their old ways. They need to start pivoting towards EVs if that's the way things are going. Some are making half-hearted attempts but finding out how expensive it is while losing their cash cows at the same time.

                            xraygoggles It's hard to say what demand for model Y is. they're finishing another 'tent' at fremont to expand model y production. why do that if there's no demand?

                            so from looking at stop losses/limits for options, doesn't seem to be very good ways to do it due to lower liquidity and the bid-ask spread. I might sell a few options right before earnings, around S&P anticipation, and hold on to the rest to mitigate risk/realize gains but maintain exposure. I'll just have to wait and see where the stock/option price goes

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                            • 3M

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                              • Originally posted by BCBiker View Post
                                3M
                                do you have an exit plan?

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