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  • I just got another upgrade to FSD downloaded and installed today. Let's see if it represents any significant progress. Or not. The performance of autopilot in complex circumstances on local streets is not at all near ready for prime time.

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    • I think driving in many ways is a uniquely human skill. the ways our road and street infrastructure is designed is easily “figured out” by a human not so much by a vision based computer. It’s one of those problems where getting from 1 to 80% is fairly straightforward but the last 20% is incredibly difficult. If Tesla was getting close to decent autonomy, by now you would have seen confident driverless Tesla’s maneuvering through a parking lot when using smart summons, which is definitely not what we saw at all.

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      • Originally posted by Tim View Post
        $20B short interest.
        https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/tesla...bet-bloodbath/
        I have never heard anyone describe Elon Musk as a fiduciary or a reliable steward of shareholders interests. Musk wants to get paid, just recognize the motivation.
        Elon is a strange cookie no ways around it. I’m not sure if he wants to hoard money in the traditional capitalist sense. His main goal is to use money from Tesla and spacex to colonize Mars. Sounds crazy? Sounds like Elon musk lol.

        He really doesn’t care about share price or shareholders really I don’t think like you said. He just has the long term vision of where Tesla and spacex can go.

        as for his compensation, I never really understood these tranches for market cap/revenue. His salary is basically minimum wage (and doesn’t take it) from what I understand and funds lifestyle on loans off his TSLA ownings. He also can’t realize sell these shares for like 5 years.

        https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-compensation-explanation-2019-6%3f

        https://electrek.co/2020/05/28/tesla-elon-musk-first-tranche-compensation-plan-worth-million/

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        • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
          Fsd is supposedly currently going through an entire rewrite. Instead of learning in 2d the neural net is supposed to learn in 3D. Supposed to be magnitudes better, but still all hearsay until we see it.

          feature complete is different than fully autonomous driving as well as what regulations will allow. Definitely going to take a lot longer than musk is predicting but shorter than some naysayers believe.
          FSD is an exponential technology. Like how search was quite bad in Alta vista / yahoo days and now google practically knows what we are going ask better than we do. Tesla is the Google of real world driving conditions. Every other company trying to make self driving cars will be benchmarked against Tesla and no one will come close. I don’t think this truth is priced in at current valuation of Tesla and it shouldn’t be. But once what look like incremental gains are looking like step function improvement it will be mad what the stock will do. That is why I maintain exposure and will roll forward my options so that I continue to have exposure to 2000-3000 shares through the next five years. With options I can take profits and maintain exposure after the stock has a massive rally. For example I can exchange a $900 Nov 2020 call for a $1800 July 2022 call and take 30-40% profit and maintain equivalent to slightly enhanced upside. I can enhance this 30-40% buy buying dips and selling rallies. If we see realization of true fsd and stock runs up to 5-10,000, I will walk away with 10s of M and my risk is low because I’m taking out 100X of initial cash as I transact. Not investment advice. :-} then I will rebalance to more typical portfolio.

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          • Originally posted by BCBiker View Post
            2.5M
            Congrats on the huge score!

            Out of curiosity, what kind of tax bill would you be looking at if you exited all of your positions now?

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            • Originally posted by AR View Post

              Congrats on the huge score!

              Out of curiosity, what kind of tax bill would you be looking at if you exited all of your positions now?
              In the $400k ish range for 2020 just realized gains so far. One motivation for holdOmg most of positions is that I go from top marginal tax rate to long term capital gains because most 90% current positions are long dated and can be held for 12 months before expiration.

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              • Originally posted by BCBiker View Post

                FSD is an exponential technology. Like how search was quite bad in Alta vista / yahoo days and now google practically knows what we are going ask better than we do. Tesla is the Google of real world driving conditions. Every other company trying to make self driving cars will be benchmarked against Tesla and no one will come close. I don’t think this truth is priced in at current valuation of Tesla and it shouldn’t be. But once what look like incremental gains are looking like step function improvement it will be mad what the stock will do. That is why I maintain exposure and will roll forward my options so that I continue to have exposure to 2000-3000 shares through the next five years. With options I can take profits and maintain exposure after the stock has a massive rally. For example I can exchange a $900 Nov 2020 call for a $1800 July 2022 call and take 30-40% profit and maintain equivalent to slightly enhanced upside. I can enhance this 30-40% buy buying dips and selling rallies. If we see realization of true fsd and stock runs up to 5-10,000, I will walk away with 10s of M and my risk is low because I’m taking out 100X of initial cash as I transact. Not investment advice. :-} then I will rebalance to more typical portfolio.
                Do you even trust your Tesla to change lanes without monitoring for a rapidly approaching car? Seems like a pretty basic and easy thing, compared to say approaching an intersection with poorly marked boundaries with pedestrian traffic and perhaps a crossing guard.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by BCBiker View Post

                  In the $400k ish range for 2020 just realized gains so far. One motivation for holdOmg most of positions is that I go from top marginal tax rate to long term capital gains because most 90% current positions are long dated and can be held for 12 months before expiration.
                  Uh, gawd...that does hurt so so bad. Idk. sucks.

                  Comment


                  • For any hands free driving, and there are now several companies with really nice versions, they are just not meant to be (and many companies block their use) outside of mapped highways. Road surfaces, markings, signage, etc...is just too variable.

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                    • Originally posted by fatlittlepig View Post

                      Do you even trust your Tesla to change lanes without monitoring for a rapidly approaching car? Seems like a pretty basic and easy thing, compared to say approaching an intersection with poorly marked boundaries with pedestrian traffic and perhaps a crossing guard.
                      I don’t have the auto lane change as I have the basic autopilot. With anything the car does, I’m making sure what it’s doing is safe as it’s still in its beta phase basically. but for changing lanes, even if you monitor closely as a human, a rapidly approaching car in your blind spot is going to potentially cause an accident, autopilot or not.

                      as for areas with pedestrian traffic, the cameras and ui display does show people walking so it knows where people are and places with pedestrian traffic are generally slow so it should be able to react in time. Also a crossing guard holds up a stop sign and the car recognizes a person holding a stop sign.

                      it still has a long way to go but the more miles Tesla’s fleet drive, the more info it has to feed the neural net. I think Tesla is basically 80-85% of the way there and rapidly getting to 90-95%. The last 5% or 1% Or fringe cases are going to be very tough though.

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                      • Originally posted by fatlittlepig View Post

                        Do you even trust your Tesla to change lanes without monitoring for a rapidly approaching car? Seems like a pretty basic and easy thing, compared to say approaching an intersection with poorly marked boundaries with pedestrian traffic and perhaps a crossing guard.
                        lane changes, yes. It’s very conservative and probably better than me at detecting another car merging into the same lane from the other side. I haven’t seen any crossing guards but when I use it on surface streets it hasn’t failed to detect a stopping point.

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                        • Nysoz
                          ”He really doesn’t care about share price or shareholders really I don’t think like you said. He just has the long term vision of where Tesla and spacex can go.”

                          Fabulously successful people not only have talent, but an set of internal gears for accomplishments.
                          As long as they play the game in the commercial arena, score is kept, there is a payoff. I tend to think achieving that payoff marker is a goal. It’s not the money itself, it’s the metric of success.

                          Contrast that with Larry Ellison and his America’s Cup venture. Yacht racing is expensive. It caught his fancy and he wanted to “win”. He still was extremely active in Oracle.
                          ”"He feels like he has done his time and he is over it." Game over, he’s done with it.
                          Gates backed off from the commercial side of Microsoft. The Gates Foundation was heavily education oriented originally. Not a lot of success.
                          I don’t pretend to understand how to motivate the Uber rich, non profit is one game, commercial is another. Musk wants to collect the chips badly. Not for the chips, he wins the prize. Ego. Success.
                          At some point, he will be over it. Or tired or bored.

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                          • Tim everyone has goals in their life to motivate them, to wake up and work or give purpose in life. Elon’s goals are sustainable energy/transport on earth and colonizing mars.

                            hes already the “7th richest person on earth” passing buffet. Do I think he’ll get tired and bored if he becomes 1st? I don’t think so. He’s a nerdy engineer type that likes to prove people wrong. I don’t think he’ll get tired or bored until his goals are realized.

                            watch videos of him watching his rockets go off or landing, him talking about the cyber truck in production, new battery technology, the new roadster. He’s like a kid enamored by these small progresses of his end goal. So I don’t think he’ll get bored anytime soon.

                            to bring it back to investing, there’s theories about infinite gamma around. Like TSLA in the past the stock was manipulated to be low by short sellers, Now I think it’s being manipulated higher by other people. Not sure who. Someone bought 500k worth of the $1500 calls 0-1 dte when it was trading at $1380 or so. There was no real catalyst to explain Friday’s jump unless there was insider information about large funds buying in or forcing algos or the option writers to buy shares to cover their calls. There’s crazy forces pushing the share price higher. Will we see a yahoo 64% jump from inclusion into the s&p? A vw 300-600% jump? Who knows anymore. The knife will fall if Tesla fails to make a profit or sometime after s&p inclusion is my guess.

                            Premiums are insane for options sellers. I can sell 7/24 $2400C for $2k in premium. $4k for the $2000 strike price. theres already activity in the $2500 7dte calls as well.

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                            • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                              Tim everyone has goals in their life to motivate them, to wake up and work or give purpose in life. Elon’s goals are sustainable energy/transport on earth and colonizing mars.

                              hes already the “7th richest person on earth” passing buffet. Do I think he’ll get tired and bored if he becomes 1st? I don’t think so. He’s a nerdy engineer type that likes to prove people wrong. I don’t think he’ll get tired or bored until his goals are realized.

                              watch videos of him watching his rockets go off or landing, him talking about the cyber truck in production, new battery technology, the new roadster. He’s like a kid enamored by these small progresses of his end goal. So I don’t think he’ll get bored anytime soon.

                              to bring it back to investing, there’s theories about infinite gamma around. Like TSLA in the past the stock was manipulated to be low by short sellers, Now I think it’s being manipulated higher by other people. Not sure who. Someone bought 500k worth of the $1500 calls 0-1 dte when it was trading at $1380 or so. There was no real catalyst to explain Friday’s jump unless there was insider information about large funds buying in or forcing algos or the option writers to buy shares to cover their calls. There’s crazy forces pushing the share price higher. Will we see a yahoo 64% jump from inclusion into the s&p? A vw 300-600% jump? Who knows anymore. The knife will fall if Tesla fails to make a profit or sometime after s&p inclusion is my guess.

                              Premiums are insane for options sellers. I can sell 7/24 $2400C for $2k in premium. $4k for the $2000 strike price. theres already activity in the $2500 7dte calls as well.
                              You never know with these things. Once things get moving, they take on a life of their own and some traders will pile in because even though its highly unlikely, its easy to put down a nominal amount and if the moves happen, they are ginormous.

                              There still seems to be some short sellers (though the data isnt updated much so who knows), the danger will be when these guys go away, though TSLA is somewhat a low float stock as well making moves huge, now with big share price even reasonable moves will be large.

                              Premium is high because the stock moves.

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                              • “He’s like a kid enamored by these small progresses of his end goal. So I don’t think he’ll get bored anytime soon.”
                                ”Premiums are insane for options sellers.”

                                Kids tend to have shorter attention spans and change goals . Musk is not exempt and has the capacity to get bored. My point was and is, he is perfectly capable of “being over with it” and likely will at some point. Elon Musk’s goals in 10 years or in 10 weeks is hard to predict. A talented but unusual person. For all I know, he could be doing the same things 40 years from now. Maybe not.

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