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Tesla, the investment

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  • This TSLA runup is ridiculous....

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    • 2.5M

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      • Originally posted by BCBiker View Post
        2.5M
        +1 ridiculous....

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        • Even as a long TSLA bull, the company is way overvalued at this valuation. This latest run up is purely big players speculating and preparing for s&p inclusion.

          the only way TSLA grows into this valuation is making huge progress in fsd, energy side of the company growing to be as big as the auto side, huge battery progress.

          even overvalued, I think there’s still money to make until earnings, as crazy as that sounds.

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          • Originally posted by BCBiker View Post
            2.5M
            This is probably the best trade you will ever make in your lifetime, in all likelihood.

            Are you taking some gains off the table? Even taking 1M off would still leave you with 1.5M, as crazy as that sounds...

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            • The stock was essentially flat for 5 years while it introduced the Model X, Model 3, Model Y, built multiple Gigafactories, and expanded the energy segment. This is a short squeeze 5 years in the making. It's overvalued now, but can remain overvalued as long as there's the "next" thing still to be implemented. I prefer actual sales and stuff, but it's basically how growth companies stay overvalued for so long. You can say there's 3 or 5 years of performance baked into the stock price, but if they continue to execute, in 3-5 years they'll be priced for the next 3-5 years.

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              • anyone with a tesla with full self driving package care to share how good the current performance is? With regards to level 5 autonomy any time this year (as claimed) that's a total and complete fantasy. I've followed the technology somewhat over the years. When will we be able to strap a kid into your car and send him or her or the way to grandmother's house in a car, or when will you be able to fall asleep from garage to parking spot? I think we are at least 10 years away from that, and i think that's being optimistic.

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                • Full self drive has a long way to go. I am comparing my 2016 Telsa S to my 2020 Tesla Y. Yes, they still have a long way to go. I love the vehicles, but full self driving is not nearly ready. These vehicles drive themselves well on the highway and in bumper to bumper traffic, but on local city streets where a human driver has to make multiple simultaneous decisions, they have a very long way to go. My best guess is they are 5 years away from full self driving.

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                  • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                    Even as a long TSLA bull, the company is way overvalued at this valuation. This latest run up is purely big players speculating and preparing for s&p inclusion.

                    the only way TSLA grows into this valuation is making huge progress in fsd, energy side of the company growing to be as big as the auto side, huge battery progress.

                    even overvalued, I think there’s still money to make until earnings, as crazy as that sounds.
                    If there are any shorts left they'll be getting squeezed, but how can there be. Maybe opex next week will see similar issues, and since its bubbly, its best to participate. Kicking myself for not doing that trade. Not fomo, just recognizing structurally whats happening and riding the wave.

                    Tesla could replace every car over the next 10 years and still be overvalued, its just mechanical and speculative at this point, as the market is a bit wild overall.

                    Crazy thing is, if they could do a stock offering, they could obliterate their massive debt fairly cheaply and there would be zero short case at all outside valuation which is always a terrible short to intermediate reason.

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                    • Originally posted by White.Beard.Doc View Post
                      Full self drive has a long way to go. I am comparing my 2016 Telsa S to my 2020 Tesla Y. Yes, they still have a long way to go. I love the vehicles, but full self driving is not nearly ready. These vehicles drive themselves well on the highway and in bumper to bumper traffic, but on local city streets where a human driver has to make multiple simultaneous decisions, they have a very long way to go. My best guess is they are 5 years away from full self driving.
                      I don't see how he can make such plainly misleading statements like Tesla will have level 5 autonomy this year, especially when his compensation is tied to stock price/market cap. Where is the coast to coast autopilot ride? Let's see a tesla make a unprotected left turn onto traffic in new york city. Would you trust a tesla to drive autonomously on a freeway with a totally stationary truck in stranded on the road in front of it.

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                      • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                        This is probably the best trade you will ever make in your lifetime, in all likelihood.

                        Are you taking some gains off the table? Even taking 1M off would still leave you with 1.5M, as crazy as that sounds...
                        I’ve taken a couple years salary off but still rising strong with current exposure.

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                        • $20B short interest.
                          https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/tesla...bet-bloodbath/
                          I have never heard anyone describe Elon Musk as a fiduciary or a reliable steward of shareholders interests. Musk wants to get paid, just recognize the motivation.

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                          • Originally posted by Zaphod View Post


                            Tesla could replace every car over the next 10 years and still be overvalued, its just mechanical and speculative at this point, as the market is a bit wild overall.

                            .
                            They are currently valued more than all car companies combined but as they ride down cost curves of batteries to huge gross margins and unlock more software revenue plus grid stabilization batteries with bidder software and maybe even some solar contributions they will be profitable beyond everyone’s w
                            ildest imagination. I am bracing for a pullback but it might not come for a while.

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                            • It appears the stock has entered the “exponential phase” at this point. There certainly is a great deal of euphoria. How long it lasts.... who knows? Often, the exponential phase ends with a rapid return to earth.

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                              • Fsd is supposedly currently going through an entire rewrite. Instead of learning in 2d the neural net is supposed to learn in 3D. Supposed to be magnitudes better, but still all hearsay until we see it.

                                feature complete is different than fully autonomous driving as well as what regulations will allow. Definitely going to take a lot longer than musk is predicting but shorter than some naysayers believe.

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