Tesla, the investment

[mgchan]

I thought you were a value/financial analyst kind of person. This is lol level of dissonance.

TSLA is a story stock and trades on that alone, no fundamental relationship. Its a trading game, until it isnt. There is really no realistic/feasible way for them to come into their valuation as it currently sits.

Did you read the last paragraph of my post? I am not invested in Tesla (haven't been for around 5 years) because I am focused on the financials. Just because I don't invest doesn't mean I don't have an opinion on a company. When I did hold it I had just a small amount as a moonshot type investment. I agree it is a story stock and for me too widely held among retail investors and with an unpredictable, very vocal CEO. I do see a path to justifying their valuation (not with cars but with energy and perhaps an autonomous driving platform) but the likelihood of that happening is not worth the uncertainty in my opinion. I don't see how that is dissonant from my other posts. I say in the post you quoted that it's not the type of investment for me. I put it in the same category as biotech (especially preclinical pharmaceuticals). I could only invest a small position because of the uncertainty which very much limits the potential gains. I'd rather go with known quantities with a much higher chance of doubling or tripling in the next 3-5 years, companies which I've laid out in my other posts.

[jz-]

I've converted to a TSLA investor based upon it's trading behavior during the Covid crash and it's endurance of many hurdles. Over the next decades I expect many 20-30% drawdowns, like AAPL two decades ago.

[burritos]

Can tesla become more profitable than apple in our lifetime?

[Nysoz]

I think the only way that happens is if Tesla solves autonomy and does everything else it needs to do. Aapl is 10x from here but this would get that and possibly more.

I think if Tesla continues to dominate ev sales, evolve improved and mass produced battery tech, gets into mass energy storage and distribution, we’ll get some multiple in the future but not to where aapl is now.

The question is who will reach some sort of mass autonomy driving first and if regulations will allow it. Tech keeps evolving faster and faster so I think it’ll happen in our lifetime, but more 10-20 years than anytime soon for full autonomy. Limited autonomy routes like the geofenced ones or for trucking routes will probably be much sooner than that.

Around 60 years ago we started launching people into space. Now we have reusable rockets that land themselves on a ship in the middle of an ocean. Around 50 years ago we had our first cell phone that weighed 2kg. Now phones fit in our pocket and have the ability to access any amount of information. Any number of things now used to be science fiction in the not too distant past. Are self driving cars that big of a jump?

[Tim]

Geez, you folks do realize the “future vision” of life was laid out in the early 60’s. 2062 was the vision. Maybe all these “pioneers” and “geniuses “ are really cartoon fans. “Meet the Jetson’s”
Take a look at how many things became reality and how many are left.

https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/78044/10-out-world-facts-about-jetsons

[Nysoz]

Well TSLA just crossed a mental milestone of $1k for the first time. I highly doubt it'll stay there at the end of the week but crazier things have happened and it's some crazy times.

With playing options, I was forced to sell shares to realize gains in my roth. I'll try to wheel the shares back but might not be able to if it keeps going up. My target is getting at least 2% a month or 24% annually in premium to stay in TSLA. If I can't get that then I'll get some leaps and a small amount of shares for continued exposure and switch back to index funds unless I see another opportunity.

[Tim]

Well TSLA just crossed a mental milestone of $1k for the first time. I highly doubt it'll stay there at the end of the week but crazier things have happened and it's some crazy times.

With playing options, I was forced to sell shares to realize gains in my roth. I'll try to wheel the shares back but might not be able to if it keeps going up. My target is getting at least 2% a month or 24% annually in premium to stay in TSLA. If I can't get that then I'll get some leaps and a small amount of shares for continued exposure and switch back to index funds unless I see another opportunity.

Are you selling covered calls? That is a much lower risk strategy than pure options plays.

[Nysoz]

Are you selling covered calls? That is a much lower risk strategy than pure options plays.

Yeah I've been selling covered calls for 3-4 months or so now. In my roth, I was targeting weekly 10-15% OTM and in my taxable 20-30% OTM or so. Have been assigned twice in roth now, never in taxable yet. First time I was able to get my shares back without a problem, but this time it seems to have run more than I was willing to chase. I figure I could be more aggressive (in my risk of getting assigned) in roth because I wouldn't have to pay taxes if I was forced to sell.

[StarTrekDoc]

Covered calls does not equal more aggressive in my mind. But then again, this is TSLA

On that note - our Model Y is VERY nice. you're welcome you TSLA investors

[burritos]

Covered calls does not equal more aggressive in my mind. But then again, this is TSLA

On that note - our Model Y is VERY nice. you're welcome you TSLA investors

Did you try it before buying it? We're on the verge of pulling the trigger on the Y, but then I was debating wouldn't it be better if I just used that money to buy 70k of TSLA stock?

[StarTrekDoc]

Can't drive stocks.

We have Model 3 - RWD long range. Model Y is essentially that in crossover body and AWD. The rearview is more limited definitely but the space is insane in second row and trunk space. Love it for the family.

[Lordosis]

Can't drive stocks.

We have Model 3 - RWD long range. Model Y is essentially that in crossover body and AWD. The rearview is more limited definitely but the space is insane in second row and trunk space. Love it for the family.

Room for 6? 3 car seats and a booster?

[ajm184]

Guessing you'll need to wait for the Tesla mini-van style to be manufactured Lordosis.

[Tim]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/tesla-cuts-price-of-2020-model-s-long-range-plus-says-range-improved.html

Typically this would be a marketing move to move available inventory the last two weeks and position for the summer volumes anticipated.

[Nysoz]

It'll be interesting to see the margins during the next earnings. It's hard to say if the price cut is a response to all other car companies' dealer/manufacturers incentives or due to improvements in battery costs and efficiencies or getting rid of existing inventory before announcing the cars with the 1M mile battery. Rumors are profit margins are 39% from the shanghai made model 3, doubtful but possible.

Any thoughts about possible S&P inclusion? If Tesla has a profitable quarter in Q2 or Q3 they become eligible and can be possibly voted in. Probably one of the biggest companies to be included in recent history. I know there's studies suggesting that there's no significant change for most companies but yesterday a few companies were to be added and they went up 5% or so. Q2 will be difficult with factory shutdowns and decreased deliveries, but it depends on shanghai margins, regulatory credits, and FSD deferred revenue. There may be a small amount of financial manipulation depending on what they want with the FSD deferred revenue (was around $600M set aside and it's basically up to them how much they want to realize as more features of FSD materialize). Also I hope to see energy storage continue to scale.

If Tesla gets added, they'll make up around 0.7% of the S&P by market cap. I couldn't find how much money is invested the S&P but I know it's a significant amount. Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab, SPY are the top 4 S&P funds I found and they collectively hold $1T in their respective S&P indexes.

In essence does that mean the companies that have the indexes have to basically buy shares on the open market or is there a more refined way of adding the company to the index like buying from institutions?

185M shares, 20.5% held by insiders, 147M float, 57.9% held by institutions. 16M shares short or 10.8% short% of float from yahoo.