Tesla, the investment

[Nysoz]

I went to the Kennedy Space center in 2013 and it was sad. Very "Has been" feel to it. But I went back again this past winter and it is nothing like I would imagine from the Golden age of spaceflight but it is definitely improving.

Public interest has drastically waned. So government funding has also waned. The only hope we have to reach the stars is wealthy, reckless, ambitious, individuals. Once the way is paved it will be much easier for others to follow. But it takes a lot to push into the unknown with little promise of return.

I grew up in the area watching shuttle launches from my back yard or beach. It was a great experience and memorable. Launches were so commonplace that sometimes I would get annoyed that the windows were rattling while I was trying to play video games. Going to Kennedy space center in the 90s had a space age feel to it. Since then, I've been back a few times and it never seemed like it's been updated very much. Astronaut ice cream also tasted way better as a child.

I wish I could time a vacation to go back and watch the spacex launch may 27, but unfortunately launch windows can change a lot and you never know if the launch will even happen that week.

[Lordosis]

I grew up in the area watching shuttle launches from my back yard or beach. It was a great experience and memorable. Launches were so commonplace that sometimes I would get annoyed that the windows were rattling while I was trying to play video games. Going to Kennedy space center in the 90s had a space age feel to it. Since then, I've been back a few times and it never seemed like it's been updated very much. Astronaut ice cream also tasted way better as a child.

I wish I could time a vacation to go back and watch the spacex launch may 27, but unfortunately launch windows can change a lot and you never know if the launch will even happen that week.

I remember going in the 90s as well but I was just a kid. I think I was 10 when we went as a family. I was so excited to go back almost 20 years later as an adult but it was moderately disappointing. This last time was better but maybe it was because I had my kid with me and saw it through him.

Also it was much harder climbing out of that Mercury capsule this time compared to 7 years ago...

[Tim]

Space Exploration is great accomplishment, exciting and pushed the limits of technology.

However, EM pushes the limits too much. I have serious concerns if he actually has lost touch with reality. Lost in his own world.
“Yes, they named their kid X Æ A-12”
I believe strongly in parental rights to raise their children. At some point, I have concerns for the kid too. Certainly not a boy named Sue or another Tom, ************************, or Harry. Significant pause for concern.

https://apple.news/AjG17bUrNRWqeB-PpCo0sUQ

wtf

[Nysoz]

strange baby names unfortunately aren't unheard of anymore. https://1061thecorner.com/news/weird...ity-baby-names
also these names I copied from a weird baby name site. have fun figuring these out lol.

• Ssss’t
• KVIIIlyn
• JKMNO
• Otion
• VII
• La-iah
• Knataleeigh

I'm less concerned about a name because the kid can go by whatever they want in the future or change it (also a good thing scantrons aren't a thing anymore cause how would you even fill that out). more of a concern would be how busy and a workaholic elon is. he has 6 other kids I think, I wonder how they are or how any celebrity kids grow up. I'm sure billionaire/celebrity kids have other issues we can't think of.

anyways, to bring it back to investing, I read something the other day about the future of car resale. if the world truly does move towards EVs, what happens to the resale value of the ICE cars? are people going to have to account for that in purchasing their next car in the future? if you buy a car for $39k and keep the car for 6 years (average numbers), will anyone take it in the not too distant future? will you just have to sell it for scrap metal?

with the early model EVs, as batteries get more efficient and cheaper, hopefully you can just replace the battery pack to get the new and improved range. battery researchers keep producing cheaper, more efficient, longer lasting batteries. so I think battery day will have interesting info how tesla will incorporate this into vehicles and energy storage. tentatively battery day is 3rd week of may from the earnings call

[mgchan]

anyways, to bring it back to investing, I read something the other day about the future of car resale. if the world truly does move towards EVs, what happens to the resale value of the ICE cars? are people going to have to account for that in purchasing their next car in the future? if you buy a car for $39k and keep the car for 6 years (average numbers), will anyone take it in the not too distant future? will you just have to sell it for scrap metal?

with the early model EVs, as batteries get more efficient and cheaper, hopefully you can just replace the battery pack to get the new and improved range. battery researchers keep producing cheaper, more efficient, longer lasting batteries. so I think battery day will have interesting info how tesla will incorporate this into vehicles and energy storage. tentatively battery day is 3rd week of may from the earnings call

I am less worried in the next 5-10 years about the electrification than automation. There will still be gas stations for a while. Sure there will be less demand for ICE vehicles but it wouldn't be financially infeasible to have one. But if we have significant automation by then and the major manufacturers catch up to Tesla, the safety features of a semi-autonomous might become essentially standard and therefore required by insurance companies (or those without the safety features could be charged much more). The combination of the two might make demand much less for a used ICE with only adaptive cruise control, though. I've leased vehicles the last few years until I bought a Model 3 in late 2019. Finally got that carpool lane sticker and an electric car just in time for the pandemic to mostly eliminate traffic and see gas prices take a nosedive

As for TSLA, I do believe it will be a successful company with a shift toward energy storage and distribution. The car business is fine but it's the energy industry that's potentially highest yield. But I think it's hard to find value when a company is this closely followed and has so many die hard fans. I got in several years ago but sold out after the Model 3 announcement. The company does remind me of Apple from 10 years ago, but I think the path to 10x gains is much more murky as I don't think the auto business will be as lucrative as iPhones and I need to see the energy business actually coming to fruition before trusting it. The car business is capital intensive, susceptible to pandemic shutdown, and less sticky. The real value is in the energy "story" but I've been burned on story stocks before. I'm a Tesla fan, but there are better/safer places for my money than TSLA.

[Nysoz]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-..._fuel_vehicles

a few countries have tentatively announced banning new sales (or complete ban) of ICE vehicles as early as 2030. some cities as early as 2025. of course could always change.

that's true that too many people focus on tesla as a car company. I look at them as a battery company that sells their batteries and software in varying packages. the 10x gains from here only happens if they're the only ones to solve autonomy. they can still 2-3x if they continue to increase their ev/battery lead and execute on their plans of expansion into other areas like energy storage like you mention. more and more legacy autos keep delaying their foray into EVs while tesla keeps innovating and progressing further forward.

the majority of stocks are going to be less volatile for sure. but in this environment almost everyone is cutting guidance and shrinking while tesla is growing and expanding. it's done really well for me and with all the volatility selling options is quite profitable too.

edit: I do admit that valuation is rather high (pun intended)

[Tim]

Relocation?

https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/Elon-Musk-Tesla-coronavirus-Fremont-shelter-place-15258908.php

[Peds]

TX/NV. Have fun!

[Tim]

TX/NV. Have fun!

Winter cometh:

https://youtu.be/pN75C86pARU

Income tax?

[CordMcNally]

Relocate the headquarters to Mars? I have to believe that there aren't a lot of rules on Mars currently.

[burritos]

TX/NV. Have fun!

Probably would be fiscally more optimal to build cars in tx or nv. Depending on shipping costs, China Vietnam or Mexico would probably be even better.

[Nysoz]

more and more info slowly coming out for the energy storage business proof of concept. mainly in Australia where electricity is expensive and the grid is unstable.

battery for the university of queensland saved them $74k AU in a quarter (couldn't find out how much it costs up front)

when a coal plant went offline, the battery kicked online, stabilized the grid, and got paid for that. they were buying power for $52/MWh and selling it for $2018/MWh an hour later. another example was selling energy for $30/MWh to empty the pack because it predicted the price of energy would be negative soon. it then got paid $64/MWh to take in the excess energy from the grid.

there's a lot of talk/speculation of the new battery technology coming out allowing extended discharging life cycle. possibility of allowing vehicle to grid transmission with minimal degradation to the battery over it's life. allowing you to do the same thing with your car battery. this is going to be harder to do in the US with lots of regulations and such, but tesla is already applying to be an energy distributor in a few countries.

once tesla and partners can produce more batteries than they can put into cars/vehicles hopefully the energy storage side will continue to grow.

side note, spacex launch is tentatively scheduled for tomorrow 4:33 pm est. hope it goes well for everyone!

[Cubicle]

^^^ This is pretty cool information! Now I have more geek stuff to look up this week.

[Lordosis]

more and more info slowly coming out for the energy storage business proof of concept. mainly in Australia where electricity is expensive and the grid is unstable.

battery for the university of queensland saved them $74k AU in a quarter (couldn't find out how much it costs up front)

when a coal plant went offline, the battery kicked online, stabilized the grid, and got paid for that. they were buying power for $52/MWh and selling it for $2018/MWh an hour later. another example was selling energy for $30/MWh to empty the pack because it predicted the price of energy would be negative soon. it then got paid $64/MWh to take in the excess energy from the grid.

there's a lot of talk/speculation of the new battery technology coming out allowing extended discharging life cycle. possibility of allowing vehicle to grid transmission with minimal degradation to the battery over it's life. allowing you to do the same thing with your car battery. this is going to be harder to do in the US with lots of regulations and such, but tesla is already applying to be an energy distributor in a few countries.

once tesla and partners can produce more batteries than they can put into cars/vehicles hopefully the energy storage side will continue to grow.

side note, spacex launch is tentatively scheduled for tomorrow 4:33 pm est. hope it goes well for everyone!

Here is the link to the event. The whole thing is 12 minutes. I hope they can show the First stage landing.

[Zaphod]

I am less worried in the next 5-10 years about the electrification than automation. There will still be gas stations for a while. Sure there will be less demand for ICE vehicles but it wouldn't be financially infeasible to have one. But if we have significant automation by then and the major manufacturers catch up to Tesla, the safety features of a semi-autonomous might become essentially standard and therefore required by insurance companies (or those without the safety features could be charged much more). The combination of the two might make demand much less for a used ICE with only adaptive cruise control, though. I've leased vehicles the last few years until I bought a Model 3 in late 2019. Finally got that carpool lane sticker and an electric car just in time for the pandemic to mostly eliminate traffic and see gas prices take a nosedive

As for TSLA, I do believe it will be a successful company with a shift toward energy storage and distribution. The car business is fine but it's the energy industry that's potentially highest yield. But I think it's hard to find value when a company is this closely followed and has so many die hard fans. I got in several years ago but sold out after the Model 3 announcement. The company does remind me of Apple from 10 years ago, but I think the path to 10x gains is much more murky as I don't think the auto business will be as lucrative as iPhones and I need to see the energy business actually coming to fruition before trusting it. The car business is capital intensive, susceptible to pandemic shutdown, and less sticky. The real value is in the energy "story" but I've been burned on story stocks before. I'm a Tesla fan, but there are better/safer places for my money than TSLA.

I thought you were a value/financial analyst kind of person. This is lol level of dissonance.

TSLA is a story stock and trades on that alone, no fundamental relationship. Its a trading game, until it isnt. There is really no realistic/feasible way for them to come into their valuation as it currently sits.