Tesla, the investment

[Tim]

If Tesla drops to $5/share I would buy some

How are the Tesla investors doing.
Tesla declared itself “essential” to keep producing in Fremont for a week. Then caved. Most certainly delivers are questionable and the plans for China and Germany. More cash needed ? Just curious.
This was on Seeking Alpha. Summary

• I believe Tesla’s Q1 delivery numbers will be much lower than most expect. The main problem? Competition, not coronavirus.
• Lower deliveries mean Tesla is burning lots of cash. So, how much cash does it have to burn?
• Its recent 8-K suggested $11.6 billion of liquidity. Dig into the 10-K, though, and that number shrinks to $5.7 billion.
• All of which means Tesla could need another capital raise before Q2 ends.
• But first, let's begin with some COV-19 irony. (And we'll finish with even greater COV-19 irony.).

[Nysoz]

I'm still invested in tesla, still in it for the long run and still up bigly although not as much as I was at 900 lol. semi decent income from selling covered calls on my shares and haven't been called away yet. been close a couple of times and may happen on friday depending what happens with the macro of unemployment numbers. made around $5k or so in premium in the first month, less this month.

Q1 will be interesting. 3/10 elon said tesla made it's millionth car. that makes around 80k cars produced in Q1 up until that point. the fremont factory was open until 3/23. gf shanghai is now up to around 2-3k cars a day supposedly. Q1 2019 they made 77k cars. Q4 2019 they made 105k. I expect Q1 2020 to be flat or slightly less from Q4 but still up from Q1 2019. we'll see how many of those get delivered.

the china factory is adding extra shifts and has started expansion on another building to build the Y over there as well. so the ramp up in production seems to be doing ok. germany seems to be continuing to prepare for construction. berlin won't be built anywhere near as fast as shanghai but still quick in terms of factory building.

In their Q4 financials they said they had 6.2B in cash, and during the Q1 cash raise have 2.3B more or so. Their operating expenses are around 1B a quarter so they can run a decent amount even if all car production closed. hopefully their energy side keeps growing as well

There's still no real large scale competition for the ev market. even the ones that get close in range are still battery constrained just like tesla is. The virus pandemic is hurting traditional autos just as hard as tesla if not more so. Tesla is smaller and has much less debt and obligations than the other autos. Pair that to the cost of building battery factories as well as losing income from ICE vehicles with the transition to EVs at the same time will be hard.

even if car sales decrease, tesla has always been battery limited. if the demand for cars soften, they can then ramp up the semi and use the batteries in those vehicles.

The next big catalysts for tesla will be Q1 delivery numbers (usually first few days of april), battery and powertrain day (speculated to be late april just before q1 earnings like autonomy day was), and sustained profit to be potentially included in the s&p. with the new manufacturing techniques of the model Y, I'll be interested to see how the profit margins compare between the 3 and the Y

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

A while ago I was thinking about Tesla, and developed the personal opinion that very few people want an electric car. But, a whole bunch of people do want a Tesla. That’s why the other electrics don’t sell IMHO. I think if Tesla made a ICE/gas model with all the tech accompaniments and smooth operation, they would sell a bunch of those too.

I just wonder how they will do as a company during a financial crisis, with very low gas prices, and individual economic strain and high unemployment. They have a cult following and a status symbol aspect that may not be as important when you can’t get toilet paper, or pay your rent or mortgage.

I look out over the city from my balcony here tonight, and it is peaceful and the quiet out there. It is never, ever, peaceful and quiet here. As nice as it is, it’s the sound of economic devastation around here.

[Nysoz]

Well ev vs ice is close to being at the tipping point. Ev used to be mainly a gimmick with expense, limited infrastructure, limited range, funny looking cars.

tesla made the ev popular by creating the infrastructure, good usable range, and decent looking cars. The costs is still higher than an ice vehicle for now, but as batteries get cheaper and motors more efficient, sooner or later evs will be the same price or cheaper than ice. Once that happens there will be no good reason to buy an ice vehicle except in rare circumstances, especially as the infrastructure improves.

after driving the Tesla for close to a year now I wouldn’t want to drive an ice vehicle again. Evs are a much better driving experience in terms of performance and maintenance/operation as long as you can charge at home or work. I do like Tesla as a company with accelerating the world towards sustainable transportation, but if toyota made a comparable ev I would probably buy that.

as for making it through this financial crisis, I think they’ll do ok but still get hit. Tesla is on the high end market and people buying Tesla’s aren’t generally affected as much as others during recessions. People on Reddit are still taking deliveries, China is supposedly still pumping out cars, heck my partner who was a die hard bmw fan just bought a model x for his wife.

[Dont_know_mind]

I hate to say it, but I have to hand it to Musk, he timed the equity raising incredibly well.

What genius, right in the nick of time and he didn’t leave much on the table either.

[Peds]

So how you guys all doing today...... No reason......

[Nysoz]

doing better than the S&P, thanks for checking in :-p

edit: so elon's antics/tweets and personal opinions about shutdowns aside, this past quarter solidifies tesla going forward.

QoQ increase in manufacturing and deliveries when everyone else is expecting double digit decrease. they exited the quarter with a higher backlog of orders than ever
every other car company has delayed their R&D into EVs. they just can't afford to spend the money on that while trying to keep afloat.
tesla decreasing the price of the car in china to meet subsidies there. their profit margins over there are better than expected and increasing manufacturing capability to 4k cars a week despite being a mud pit a year ago. also building a model y building there now.
model y just started production in fremont and was already profitable
with the fremont factory shut down, they worked to improve the lines while they weren't allowed to make cars, maybe increasing efficiency or production further.
berlin factory still progressing. won't be anywhere near as fast as shanghai but making progress
elon keeps saying battery day is going to be special, so we'll see if there's some sort of breakthrough. will also likely announce another factory in the US somewhere to start cybertruck production.

q2 is going to be interesting. I think it's going to be another surprise beat depending on analysts predictions (since everyone is basically saying q2 is going to be terrible for everyone). more fsd features rolling out means more deferred revenue realized from the purchase price of fsd. more regulatory credits rolling in as well. as the manufacturing lines get better and better, profit margins on each car goes up as well.

[DEE F]

Well, you already read it from the horse’s mouth. He may having a difficult raising money of the stock price is that high.

[fatlittlepig]

There is something very wrong with this individual, I do not think he is well.

[burritos]

There is something very wrong with this individual, I do not think he is well.

Many high functioning bipolars can shoot the moon. Good for us because Teslas and Iphones are awesome.

[fatlittlepig]

Many high functioning bipolars can shoot the moon. Good for us because Teslas and Iphones are awesome.

SJ didn't have this type of erratic behavior.

[Lordosis]

Many high functioning bipolars can shoot the moon. Good for us because Teslas and Iphones are awesome.

Nice choice of words.

[CordMcNally]

I think Elon took his peyote and went on a vision quest a little earlier than he intended.

[Tim]

“https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/21/1...ion-award-plan”

“Well ev vs ice is close to being at the tipping point. Ev used to be mainly a gimmick with expense, limited infrastructure, limited range, funny looking cars.”
Really?
Branding is rather important to Elon. Compensation is rather important. Easy Rider with Peter Fonda was popular with a segment of the population as well.
Elon MUST keep the momentum going if he wants paid. Nothing but “yes men” left. Losing his luster.

[burritos]

SJ didn't have this type of erratic behavior.

Did you read his bio? He was borderline psychopathic.