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  • Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

    Not too much solar up here. If only we could generate energy from snow.
    Solar powered snowshoes? Brilliant !

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    • Interesting read on Tesla. Day trading DURING class seem popular.
      https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...o-day-trading/

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      • I’ve seen a few posts on Reddit about how quite a few funds have increased their shares of Tesla in the millions of shares. So that does explain the increase and price and volumes during this run up.

        on a side note, I’ve started dipping my toes in options by selling covered calls. I’ve been buying them back when I’m up 50% or so and so far I’ve made around $2k in premium in the past week or so.

        its definitely a nice way to get more money in my Roth IRA past the contribution limit.

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        • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
          I’ve seen a few posts on Reddit about how quite a few funds have increased their shares of Tesla in the millions of shares. So that does explain the increase and price and volumes during this run up.

          on a side note, I’ve started dipping my toes in options by selling covered calls. I’ve been buying them back when I’m up 50% or so and so far I’ve made around $2k in premium in the past week or so.

          its definitely a nice way to get more money in my Roth IRA past the contribution limit.
          Yes and that was from Q4. Saying 40-50 M shares per day volume is a few newbies on Robinhood is out of touch with reality of where this is going. If you remove the peak and dive from early Feb the trajectory is going up steadily presumably due to these large funds taking large positions steadily over months.

          If q1numbers are anything but horrible we will see mid-1000s by summer.

          I sold my $500 calls that were going to expire basically at the peak of

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          • Originally posted by BCBiker View Post

            Yes and that was from Q4. Saying 40-50 M shares per day volume is a few newbies on Robinhood is out of touch with reality of where this is going. If you remove the peak and dive from early Feb the trajectory is going up steadily presumably due to these large funds taking large positions steadily over months.

            If q1numbers are anything but horrible we will see mid-1000s by summer.

            I sold my $500 calls that were going to expire basically at the peak of
            A market maker now has an almost 7% stake in TSLA. This is the result of them delta hedging positions as RH and other retail traders just keep buying and lifting the offers on calls like crazy. In order to hedge their risk by selling that call, they buy the underlying stock. It rises, and so on the vicious cycle repeats. Now people are somewhat onto this logistic market plumbing issue and starting to do it like madness elsewhere. By people I mean those crazy folks at r/wallstreetbets who brought you such hits as infinite leverage. They are a wild bunch, but you have to appreciate their game.

            Its somewhat alarming that the market can be pushed around by these kind of phenomenon in giant large cap stocks. Too much of this in the general market and something will break.

            In other news they did a secondary which is the smartest money move they've ever done. Should have been as big as possible though.

            You had 500 calls? Lol, good on you man.

            I would be concerned about q1 just given seasonality and the china situation. A high stock price effectively creates extreme leverage in expectations and can lead to insane amounts of volatility even with seemingly small beats/misses (magnified due to the projected change of future cash flows). However, that hasnt mattered a lick yet so no bets on if it will start to matter anytime soon.

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            • Anyone else following this thread but have little to no idea what is going on?

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              • Originally posted by Lordosis View Post
                Anyone else following this thread but have little to no idea what is going on?
                I want to know if 13D or 13G was filed. Required in excess of 5%. A market maker steps in only for an order imbalance. An offer to buy without an offer to sell would go unfilled.
                7% holdings? Not following this either. .

                https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-id..._6101&rgn=div8

                https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-id..._6102&rgn=div8

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                • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                  I’ve seen a few posts on Reddit about how quite a few funds have increased their shares of Tesla in the millions of shares. So that does explain the increase and price and volumes during this run up.

                  on a side note, I’ve started dipping my toes in options by selling covered calls. I’ve been buying them back when I’m up 50% or so and so far I’ve made around $2k in premium in the past week or so.

                  its definitely a nice way to get more money in my Roth IRA past the contribution limit.
                  I’m no longer an active stock trader, but I do still enjoy following stocks like this, and analyzing the psychology behind them. Keep us updated over the months (and years) with how this strategy goes. I hope you personally do well, but I’ll be curious how things go for people if the air gets let out of this one.

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                  • Originally posted by Lordosis View Post
                    Anyone else following this thread but have little to no idea what is going on?
                    *raises hand* But I like to listen to / read from others who do know. Sometimes I pick up things. It kinda was the same when I did my 4 years in that huge brick building with windows that didn't open. And the 3 years I was "relocated" to after that. Listen enough & some of it sticks. Not "jail", it was called something else...
                    $1 saved = >$1 earned. ✓

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                    • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post

                      I’m no longer an active stock trader, but I do still enjoy following stocks like this, and analyzing the psychology behind them. Keep us updated over the months (and years) with how this strategy goes. I hope you personally do well, but I’ll be curious how things go for people if the air gets let out of this one.
                      My cost basis for my shares are in the low $200s I highly doubt it’ll get that low again but crazier things have happened.

                      so far been selling a call about 30% otm 2-3 weeks out. I expect the stock to be largely flat (for Tesla until April). I figure it’s free premium and if it jumps 30% in 2-3 weeks time that’s good enough profit if the call gets exercised. Then I’ll take a turn dipping my toes in selling cash covered puts and see how that goes. keeping a spreadsheet with when I started and how much premium I’ve made.

                      as for q1, I think deliveries may be relatively down due to multiple reasons. Building back up inventory, ramp up of the model y, virus in China. That being said, there’s still no demand problem and wait times to get a car is still weeks. Gf Shanghai is back and operating. Gf Berlin is starting to clear land (temporarily stopped due to “activists” but I think restarting soon). $2b injected at Berlin or China or breaking ground in Texas can really speed up growth or help weather any potential recession that’s been supposedly predicted for a few times.

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                      • Nysoz
                        The hardest thing to do from an analysis viewpoint is not to sink into “confirmation bias”.
                        A predisposition towards indicators that confirm positive or negative. I say that from experience.
                        Hypothetically, if Tim Cook was running the production and logistics and Elon was running the product development and marketing, I would be buying. The supply chain issues are potentially severe. JIT Manufacturing is tricky, completely shuts down a factory or two or three. Checkout some negative news sources for balance.

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                        • Tim

                          i Try to take in news as objectively as possible and always appreciate hearing about the other side. I revived this thread looking for possibly other contrarian news because all I was finding was positives for Tesla.

                          the rate limiting step for mass adoption of evs is definitely the battery. With Tesla being vertically integrated and the partnerships they have, they’re far ahead in quantity of batteries and making them cheaper. Even as they’re cheaper than competitors, they’re higher energy density and easier to manage as they’re the only ones making cylinder cells.

                          lately they’ve been buying up of battery companies which is why I’m very bullish on battery/powertrain day. They’re getting more and more efficient while being cheaper. They just updated the model s to have a 390 mile range.

                          so I don’t doubt that the traditional autos can do the same thing as Tesla, but they have first moving advantage while doing it better. They have some of the best minds and a 7-10 year head start. so as the traditional autos are catching up, Tesla keeps innovating and raising the bar.

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                          • Hindsight bias and anchoring are major risks here.
                            With any cognitive biases, it doesn't help to be aware of them.
                            I find the only thing that helps is to know that I maybe more prone at a particular point and avoid that situation or at least seek external systems for decisions at those points (a board of directors or equivalent).

                            Price creates it's own narrative and liquidity. The vast majority of transactions are HFT.
                            I can't believe the implied range that people long this stock are anchored to.

                            Just a wake up call: Amazon went down 94% in the early 2000's ?
                            Oct 1999 : 107
                            March 2001: 6.5

                            Even if Telsa is another Amazon (which I severely doubt), it is possible it can experience the same type of gut wrenching, deep pullback.

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                            • Amazon Revenue in 1999 was $1.6B and it lost money in 4 quarters. Margin was negative 20% with no manufacturing costs. Tesla revenue in 2019 was 25B, and it was profitable in the second half. The 95% drop is not very probable absent discovery of fraud, though I wouldn't be at all surprised by a 50% pullback.

                              It's funny. I bought my token 50 shares when it dropped last summer just for fun, but I've been a 100% index investor otherwise. I gave up on stock picking because I wasn't convinced I was any good at it, and it added complexity/stress to my life. TSLA has easily been the most successful trade I'll ever make in both dollars and percentage, but it has added stress back into my life. I wasn't worried about risking $10k thatI earned, but now having $50k in the game makes it harder.

                              My plan is to hold it indefinitely, though the run-up makes me want to sell. The STCG makes that unpalatable. I still think the company is shooting for the moon and so long as they have more hits than misses, will grow into something huge long term, and I'm happy to just watch.

                              All this day trading I'm reading above makes my chest hurt though.

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                              • Originally posted by Molar Mechanic View Post
                                Amazon Revenue in 1999 was $1.6B and it lost money in 4 quarters. Margin was negative 20% with no manufacturing costs. Tesla revenue in 2019 was 25B, and it was profitable in the second half. The 95% drop is not very probable absent discovery of fraud, though I wouldn't be at all surprised by a 50% pullback.

                                It's funny. I bought my token 50 shares when it dropped last summer just for fun, but I've been a 100% index investor otherwise. I gave up on stock picking because I wasn't convinced I was any good at it, and it added complexity/stress to my life. TSLA has easily been the most successful trade I'll ever make in both dollars and percentage, but it has added stress back into my life. I wasn't worried about risking $10k thatI earned, but now having $50k in the game makes it harder.

                                My plan is to hold it indefinitely, though the run-up makes me want to sell. The STCG makes that unpalatable. I still think the company is shooting for the moon and so long as they have more hits than misses, will grow into something huge long term, and I'm happy to just watch.

                                All this day trading I'm reading above makes my chest hurt though.
                                No such thing as profitable for half the year. They are still not profitable, and more concerning, revenue is flat. That is trouble for a supposed growth company.

                                If you own it, you have to be honest with yourself about it and realize its a cult and trading stock, prized for its volatility. The price, has very very little to do with a fundamental view of the company. Anything can happen with it.

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