Tesla, the investment

[Tim]

Nysoz
Covered calls can be used for either goosing returns or protecting some gains. It’s much less risk.
-all of your calls will be short term taxable
-calls can be exercised prior to expiration. No idea how they get allocated, but it happens.
Expiration on the money usually expire. In the money, roll it if you don’t want the tax hit from selling the stock. Some use this as an enhancement to goose returns. The problem is the tax hit. I’m sure you will figure it out. You simply limit your upside and lock in the premium.

[BCBiker]

The problem with making a large gain as a % net worth in this type of speculation is that it creates a flood of neurotransmitters that very frequently cause people to make large errors.

It is not that the market punishes them or knows or cares, it’s not a conscious entity. And yet, so few keep their gains. Why ? The problem is that very few people have the experience, discipline and cognitive flexibility to stop (or reverse) after large, leveraged gains. The flood of neurotransmitters increases cognitive biases. You can know about cognitive errors but in real time you will still be rationalising like crazy and making those errors. Knowing about them doesn’t stop them. It is very difficult to remain rational.

What is the definition of bad gambling ? It is when you keep playing when the odds are no longer in your favour. That is the wheel of doom.

When the dust settles, read Dostoyevski’s ‘the gambler’. It encapsulates all the emotions that go with winning in speculation/gambling.

Consider this game : payoffs : 900% or -90%. Probability 50% of each at each play.
Playing this is ruinous.
The only way you can win is to stop when you are up 900%, or 8,100% if you are lucky enough to have had consecutive good turns.

I think the compounding rate that you can manage consistently over decades is what is important.

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qim...f519470bd4af-c

I would avoid games which have unfavourable odds. I would stop playing if I somehow got involved and was ahead. I would stop playing if I was behind too if the odds are unfavourable.

Totally. Trying to keep in stride and not make this anymore than WT. F. just happened!!!!.... Ok cool. There is more money. Back to normal. That is why it is jarring that I actually will need to mod slightly long term strategy (mostly student loans) just based on what is definitely an anomaly.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

What do you guys think about this person’s speculation about the flash crash? Market manipulation?

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thre...7#post-4451429

Are you basing analysis or decisions on information from online fan forums?

[Tim]

Are you basing analysis or decisions on information from online fan forums?

If it’s on the internet, isn’t it good?

[Zaphod]

Looking flashy out there.

[Tim]

Looks like Tesla just got hit by the Coronavirus.
18.5% drop.
Approaching a 20% drop due to a temporary shutdown for the little bugger.
Think about it. It’s market cap dropped 20% by an “isolated China issue”. Over reaction air being let out of the sails.

[White.Beard.Doc]

I was ruminating over this with my wife last night. We typically invest in what our own household uses and has served us well. BankAmerica, Visa, Amazon, Apple, Disney. The one glaring exception has been Tesla. Though I have had solar and EV cars since 2003 including the Powerwall and 3 (too fiscally constrained for the S and X!), I didn't think rest of america was ready. Nope!

Very happy Tesla doing well. Sad that I didn't jump in with them in full confidence this time around. But very happy to continue support with our future Y and cybertruck

We have 2 Model S Teslas. The original one does not have all wheel drive. So we plan to buy a Model Y with all wheel drive this year. And we have a Cybertruck on order, at least for fun at the moment, whether or not we actually pull the trigger when it becomes available is still in question.

[Tim]

We have 2 Model S Teslas. The original one does not have all wheel drive. So we plan to buy a Model Y with all wheel drive this year. And we have a Cybertruck on order, at least for fun at the moment, whether or not we actually pull the trigger when it becomes available is still in question.

Good thing they are made in China. Factory down.
Stock down over 15%.

[CordMcNally]

I have a feeling this is going to be a case study at some point.

[Peds]

so to everyone who forgot coronavirus was affecting all of china.....and all their exports....they are going to lose 18% today on TSLA
and i will make 1% today on the S&P500.

oh joy.

[Tim]

so to everyone who forgot coronavirus was affecting all of china.....and all their exports....they are going to lose 18% today on TSLA
and i will make 1% today on the S&P500.

oh joy.

I love 1% days, pause 2 weeks
Rinse and repeat.
Equals 26% a year ignoring compounding. Perfectly fine when one only needs to consider a 4% withdrawal rate. Shoot, I would even hire a high fee FA if they would guarantee it.
Then again, they might go broke.
I certainly can "hope" for a repeat of 2019. Not planning on it.

[TheDangerZone]

I don't know how some people do it. I have enough on my plate to worry about without watching individual stocks go up and down throughout the day. Someone above mentioned they were going to dump 10-20% of their NW into TSLA if it dropped to 600. Guess I like to get my adrenaline rush from other things. I even deleted the stocks app from my iPhone because I was checking the S&P a half dozen times a day.

I'm guessing a lot of wealthy investors made out like bandits in after hours trading last night and most average joes were stuck footing the bill. When the guy shining your shoes (or the entire world) is telling you to buy TSLA... time to sell.

[Nysoz]

Are you basing analysis or decisions on information from online fan forums?

No but it’s more information, and more information is always better if used appropriately. Just wondering if anyone else caught a single person selling 1M+ shares with a market order instead of limits. Anyways, these famous ‘analysts’ on CNBC or other online sources are no better than a coin flip most of the time either. I based my decision about investing on buying/driving my car and having an a ha moment.

As for my Tesla position, it’s always been just a portion that I felt comfortable in a single stock but has since blown up to be more than that. I’ve sold most my long term positions but even my short term ones are deeply profitable.

ill see where the stock settles but with Tesla being included in the s&p sooner or later and I’m expecting pretty positive news on battery day, I’ll look to increase my exposure between now and then.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

CNBC, Analysts... this is amateur stuff. Message boards and forums for stock trading.... this is real amateur stuff. Like, “kids in the basement discussing which pilot in Star Wars is the best-type” amateur stuff. More information isn’t always better, if it’s bunch of theories and hearsay based on emotional reactions.

[Lordosis]

CNBC, Analysts... this is amateur stuff. Message boards and forums for stock trading.... this is real amateur stuff. Like, “kids in the basement discussing which pilot in Star Wars is the best-type” amateur stuff. More information isn’t always better, if it’s bunch of theories and hearsay based on emotional reactions.

Biggs?