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Tesla, the investment

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  • Nysoz
    replied
    Even around $700 TSLA is priced for the next few years growth of their car manufacturing. I don't expect any multiples appreciation in share price in the short to medium term and expect it to trade largely flat as TSLA grows into their valuation. But who knows with as illogical as it is. The only way there's another 10x would be completely disrupting transportation with autonomy and we're years away from that, if ever.

    I wonder if we'll get a good explanation of the whole BTC thing and what they plan on doing with it, either in tweets or during the next earnings call. It was around 6-7% (I was hoping for 6.9%) of their cash position and speculated to be around a $31-33k purchase price. So even with the recent drop in BTC, it's still up around 40-50%.

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  • Zaphod
    replied
    TSLA trade has looked sick for at least a month and broken the last week and a half. Call OI has switched to puts, ARK is being targeted for illiquidity by HFs, there are lots of competing meme type companies to take away attention, ofc valuation is at an impossible level for any time frame.

    Last year was an excellent year for tsla, this year not so much. They just cannot grow another 10x (this year) without being worth more than the world, that will def slow growth.

    Bitcoin move was pretty dumb unless theyre trading around it, puts the company on volatile ground. They'll figure out how to value it non-gaap but really it can only be marked down.

    With current PE/etc....any wild swings up or down are all very reasonable. No good reason it got so high, certainly not fundamentals, and there doesnt have to be a good one when it goes down either.

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  • Nysoz
    replied
    It's already recovering a bit. This is all macro related and TSLA has always traded almost like a 3x QQQ on large macro days. No real changes/news to the company outlook so this is just noise to me. Short term TSLA was definitely overvalued to most rational investors, some people on reddit were thinking this was going to $1k by march .

    Interest rates rising, rotation out of tech, and no real substantial news for Tesla the company itself. As long as the company is still on track and no other weird things happening as well depending on Q1 numbers outlook/share price, I would actually double down by selling my shares by writing ATM covered calls then get into ATM leaps then sell covered calls/spreads off those.

    The things that would concern me would be major halts/delays to the berlin/austin factories, delayed expansion of shanghai, or news that it's much harder to ramp their new battery production. Q1 production and earnings will be important to look at as well, specifically profit margin.

    CordMcNally I think that guy had like 10-12k shares. I would hope he's selling covered calls to fund retirement rather than banking on just continued share appreciation and relying on asset based lines of credit. With that many shares, you can sell varying strikes and DTE. You can easily get $100 per contract a week with very little risk of shares getting called away. That would pull in $10k a week. If you're wanting to be more aggressive and get $2-300 per contract and still have relatively low risk of getting called away, that's $20-30k a week.

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  • Brains428
    replied
    CordMcNally I'm guessing it's like anything with concentrated bets- great when it works, terrible when it doesn't.

    I think the company would do well to get rid of Musk. But, that's been said for years.

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  • CordMcNally
    replied
    I wonder what that guy is doing/thinking that announced he was retiring because of his Tesla stock but wasn't planning on selling it? Who knows where it goes from here but I bet he's had better days.

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  • Brains428
    replied
    So, we're at pre-inclusion prices this AM. Certainly this isn't because the potential links to El Chapo- people have turned a blind eye to other negative press around the company.

    Nysoz - what's the plan if it unwinds below 500 or worse? Perhaps we never get there, but it would make for an interesting discussion.

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  • Nysoz
    replied
    My investment in Tesla has always been a 5-10 year investment plan. Also getting more yield out of my shares/margin by selling covered calls and puts at a share price that makes more sense than current valuation. Even if the share price stays largely flat for 5 years as the company grows into their valuation, I'm making quite a bit of returns by selling the options. It's also easier for me to hold since I got a good deal of my position in the $40-60 (split adjusted) range. I have picked up some more along the way as well though.

    They have a long way to grow still and lots of ups and downs along the way. The swings in share price are not for the faint of heart. They're still executing in their growth and still have the potential to disrupt a few more industries. If they hit large speed bumps along the way by not hitting their growth targets or other intangibles I'll have to re-evaluate then. But until that happens I'm still invested for the long run.

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  • Jaqen Haghar MD
    replied
    I did get a little chuckle out of seeing that Tesla did not hit 500,000 cars again this year. Musk has opened every year, for I don’t know how many years now, with “this year we are projecting 500,000...”. Soon, I guess.

    I hope for the best with Tesla and hope someday they are able to make cars with the quality and reliability of Toyota and the technology of a space ship....

    But I don’t feel super comfortable investing in a company where you’d have to own the stock for 1,200 years to get the earnings to match the stock price. It seems to be a pretty emotional trade on the imaginary future prospects of the company. It’s just too rich for my blood.

    Maybe the tired old metrics don’t apply and this is a new area 😬, but these differing views on Tesla is what makes the market, a market.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Top ten?
    https://driving.ca/volkswagen/featur...s-in-the-world

    The question is unit of measure. Is it vehicles sold, sales , or market cap. Depends as an investor which you think translates into profits. From an investment perspective, bigger is not necessarily better.Not a thing wrong with being a niche player, 1% is not a dominant market share.

    If from a customer perspective one needs to rely on lemon laws, ..... tends to trash the brand name. Worst case scenario.

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  • Kamban
    replied
    Originally posted by SpacemanSpiff12 View Post

    They gave us a loaner. I just didn’t imagine us needing to drive a loaner within the first two weeks of buying a new car.

    We didn’t see pictures of the original bumper but it was described as paint imperfections. They knocked $1600 off the price for having to restore it, which I was happy to take in exchange for something relatively minor and cosmetic. (I couldn’t tell any difference in the bumper when we actually received it, and wouldn’t have known there was originally an issue unless they mentioned it.)

    Nysoz and Tim, I’m not as deep in the weeds as you both with regards to Tesla’s factories, production capacity, financials, retooling, etc. All I know is that a month ago, I couldn’t wrap my head around how they had a market cap larger than the next nine biggest automakers combined. Or the wildly high P/E ratio. Or how their valuation could be so big while their revenue and number of cars produced is so comparatively small. It didn’t pass the common-sense test. And all I can say is that owning one has not been clarifying - it’s only added to my confusion and reinforced my skepticism.
    The problem with Tesla is that they are ramping up production so quickly and adding new features so often ( heated steering wheel, new headlights, updated center console) that they don't do good QC before the car leaves the factory. 95% of the cars are well made. Unfortunately the 5 % that is not causes a lot of headaches and dissatisfied customers.

    My previous Model 3 SR+ was flawless and the current Y has not had any issues so far. But one can clearly make out it is not a 50K luxury car. It is a 30K Honda interior with a 20K tech built in. So far the tech has worked well. It has served my main purpose - to have a car with a "full tank" each morning and not be going to Costco for gas every week or every other week. And during oil production crunches when the supply becomes less and prices shoot up, I don't have to worry at all.

    The other issue is the other EV's are too expensive (Porsche), expensive and with less range (Audi), poor range and battery issues ( Leaf}, not adequate supply and quantity( KIA and Hyundai) or too new with limited supply and unknown quality (Ford). I am not sure of vW 3 and 4. Tesla is the most established EV on the market and unfortunately it sometimes is plagued with quality issues affecting a certain percentage of vehicles.
    Last edited by Kamban; 02-20-2021, 06:52 AM.

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  • Nysoz
    replied
    No one is going to argue that current valuation makes sense with their current number of cars sold and P/E ratios.

    in order for it to make some sense, you have to look forward into the future then discount share price back.

    with 2 factories going up in Berlin and Austin, and Shanghai continuing to expand they’re on track to increase production 50% a year which is their goal now. If they’re able to do that that’s 3.8m cars in 2025 or 150-200b in revenue depending on average sale price just in cars. This is where profit margin comes into play. If they’re able to get back on track with increasing profit margins (last quarter their profit margins dipped) then their P/E ratio won’t be astronomical anymore.

    also another problem analysts had is thinking Tesla is just a car company. As listed above they do much more than just a car company but it’s hard to look past it because that’s all you see

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/18...ozen-startups/

    it’s also hard to get a sense of the product when you immediately have issues. They do have a lot of things to work out and improve on. I really hope you get everything fixed in a timely fashion and have a good experience. If they can’t fix it in a timely fashion and meets criteria for lemon laws or whatever then I do encourage you to return it if that’s the only way to get their attention.

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  • Nysoz
    replied
    Originally posted by Tim View Post
    Not one thing is unique in vehicle assembly. Parts go together to make a product.

    Tesla is not unique in science, manufacturing, pricing or distribution. The stopped production and fell short of their delivery goals. Not much, but someone miscalculated (again). 499,550.

    Just 450 more. Niche manufacturer currently.
    I guess having a new way to make parts to speed up the assembly process, creating new manufacturing techniques, saving money isn’t going to be impressive no matter what they do as long as the end product still looks like a car.

    they missed by 450 cars with their main factory shut down for 8-9 weeks at the height of covid. Just curious, how many cars will they have to make a year before you consider them not niche?

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  • SpacemanSpiff12
    replied
    Originally posted by Kamban View Post

    Surprised that they have not given you a loaner.

    Also, I would not have accepted a new car that required a new bumper.


    They gave us a loaner. I just didn’t imagine us needing to drive a loaner within the first two weeks of buying a new car.

    We didn’t see pictures of the original bumper but it was described as paint imperfections. They knocked $1600 off the price for having to restore it, which I was happy to take in exchange for something relatively minor and cosmetic. (I couldn’t tell any difference in the bumper when we actually received it, and wouldn’t have known there was originally an issue unless they mentioned it.)

    Nysoz and Tim, I’m not as deep in the weeds as you both with regards to Tesla’s factories, production capacity, financials, retooling, etc. All I know is that a month ago, I couldn’t wrap my head around how they had a market cap larger than the next nine biggest automakers combined. Or the wildly high P/E ratio. Or how their valuation could be so big while their revenue and number of cars produced is so comparatively small. It didn’t pass the common-sense test. And all I can say is that owning one has not been clarifying - it’s only added to my confusion and reinforced my skepticism.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kamban
    replied
    Originally posted by SpacemanSpiff12 View Post

    The service center is unable to give us an estimate for when the repairs will be finished.

    So far, I am not enjoying my experience in the manufacturing revolution.
    Surprised that they have not given you a loaner.

    Also, I would not have accepted a new car that required a new bumper.



    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Remains to be seen whether centralized or decentralized storage of energy is more efficient and in which situation is best. Current capacity is 14 minutes. This reminds me of data storage and retrieval. IBM magnetic tape drives, big disc drives for random access, punched cards for loading programs, etc. etc. More power and storage in your phone now then in a data center.

    Not one thing is unique in vehicle assembly. Parts go together to make a product.

    Tesla is not unique in science, manufacturing, pricing or distribution. The stopped production and fell short of their delivery goals. Not much, but someone miscalculated (again). 499,550.

    Just 450 more. Niche manufacturer currently.
    https://www.agritechtomorrow.com/art...er-water/10595
    The supplemental power was a hand pump.
    This works for a farm, not for a city.
    Not one new concept in EV is new. Just trying to build a better mousetrap. Too much innovation and competition to dominate as you dream.
    Just an alternative point to consider.

    Leave a comment:

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