Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Tesla, the investment

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • https://tesla.gcs-web.com/static-files/0ff834d7-dd3b-4d69-81a1-a4246a7b5736

    Know what you own. Pretty simple, for the informed investors here, I am sure a little basic familiarity with reading financial statements would make sense. One requirement is SEC required disclosures annually, Form 10K. Has anyone read the 10k?
    Challenge:
    Note 15- Equity Incentive Plan (pg 124)
    Note 16 - Income Taxes (pg 128)
    My point is that 418 pages of real hard data is available on the investment that is deemed critical to investors that is required to be disclosed to make informed decisions.
    Information overload. We have become consumers of the Press Release and easy to digest themes of publicity machines.
    With the audience here, compensation and taxes are relatively within your wheelhouse. The management changes and new tax laws and expiring credits would make reading the disclosures worth a scan.
    I used to put this crap (defense mechanism) together.
    Can anyone read it and tell me if Tesla did well for the year? Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on incentives and taxes.
    Yes the “big picture” narratives are really subject to confirmation bias. As an investor, understanding the 418 pages are deemed to required to help you decide.
    I have zero interest, but any significant capital infusion would dig deep into the details and then find out what “wasn’t disclosed “.
    EV’s, batteries, solar power, space? These are “conceptual “ bets, gambling with a hope. Knowing what you own requires a lot of work. Very few shareholders have the capability and capacity to digest the 10k.
    I would venture a guess the very few advisors do as well.

    Out of curiosity, has anyone here actually read it?
    Please explain footnotes 15 and 16. Short version please.
    I can’t connect EM’s vision to the reality in the 10K.
    Amazon, MSFT, Google I could. Maybe I just stupid, or maybe its not really connected. As an investor I like to understand the connection whether it is equity or debt.

    Item 1A Risks and Item 7 MD&A are worth a read.
    This is a huge complex beast.


    Comment


    • If it's outside your wheelhouse....you think bunch of financial leaning docs know better?  Well perhaps a few in here just may, so won't say never either.

      As any growth tech company trying to be a disruptor in a very complex industry, the stars must align.  It may just take a crazy engineer who has the crazy idea and ability to land rockets on moving barges to reuse them.  It may just may work --- or not.   But it certainly has been an interesting ride and disrupted the entire industry for sure.

       

      Comment


      • Guess some folk see 175 as level of support for TSLA.

        Surprised.  Would have thought 150 or 100 would be it until closer to end of the quarter report.  May estimated sales were promising, so guess that helped buoy something.

        Comment






        • Guess some folk see 175 as level of support for TSLA.

          Surprised.  Would have thought 150 or 100 would be it until closer to end of the quarter report.  May estimated sales were promising, so guess that helped buoy something.
          Click to expand...


          178-180 looks like long term support, or so many people have said, who knows. Some brokers have increased margin requirements (schwab went from 40-->75% today), greater market went up, short covering, and maybe its just time for a bounce. If it stays up here other people say it could go higher. Lots going on so hard to say of course.

          Numbers for q2 look much improved. Interesting times.

          Comment


          • It would be fun to organize an office pool style $5 wager on here for Q2 Tesla deliveries with Price is Right rules. If you go over, you go bust.

            Is there a digital tool for this? How does an app not exist for such things?

            Comment









            • Guess some folk see 175 as level of support for TSLA.

              Surprised.  Would have thought 150 or 100 would be it until closer to end of the quarter report.  May estimated sales were promising, so guess that helped buoy something.
              Click to expand…


              178-180 looks like long term support, or so many people have said, who knows. Some brokers have increased margin requirements (schwab went from 40–>75% today), greater market went up, short covering, and maybe its just time for a bounce. If it stays up here other people say it could go higher. Lots going on so hard to say of course.

              Numbers for q2 look much improved. Interesting times.
              Click to expand...


              We know the qtr 2 numbers were going to be better than qtr 1 since a lot of cars were in transit to fill up the pipeline to europe and china.  qtr 2 slighly impact with the right handed runs too and bet that would stall a line for a little bit on the switchovers for those runs....the question is how much it bounces up.

              Even more interesting is the whole blackout risk coming with this summer's plans and if there's a run on PV+Batteries that Tesla may benefit.....maybe.

              Comment


              • Tesla: Groundbreaking products, rabid fan base, sexy cars. Will be a great investment...

                ... for Apple or Warren or Bezos when the market decides Tesla equity deserves a major discount and a buyer takes over great assets.

                Will be good for the company's future--it needs an owner that can put in a few billion to complete the vision.

                Comment






                • Tesla: Groundbreaking products, rabid fan base, sexy cars. Will be a great investment…

                  … for Apple or Warren or Bezos when the market decides Tesla equity deserves a major discount and a buyer takes over great assets.

                  Will be good for the company’s future–it needs an owner that can put in a few billion to complete the vision.
                  Click to expand...


                  No one in their right mind buys them out, their liabilities are massive. Yesterdays activist pump job was hilarious as well, no one can be an activist when a single shareholder owns 20% of the company.

                  Comment






                  • no one can be an activist when a single shareholder owns 20% of the company.
                    Click to expand...


                    Yep -- saw the shareholders' meeting on FB?  Monopoly? Break up the company?  Ha --  aw nope says the king.

                    Comment


                    • So just reviving this thread to see what people are thinking now with the relatively fast change in stock price and valuation. When it dipped below $200 I invested as much as I felt comfortable in a single stock in my roth and taxable accounts with majority still in index funds.

                      It's gone up a little too fast for me, but I'm planning on holding the stock I have long term while putting new capital into index funds.

                      I think with any significant bad news it'll pull back pretty hard but as a tesla long I only see the positives so I'd like to hear the other side and get other points of view.

                      Q4 deliveries. They're doing their normal end of quarter sales and delivery push. Going to deliver through new years eve for the end of tax credit.

                      Q4 earnings. Tesla is still around 25% short interest I think. if it beats revenue and eps, could it cause a short squeeze?

                      China GF3 up and running. They got approval for sales and delivery of their MIC cars. The cars are leaving the factory reportedly but I'm not sure if they're being delivered this quarter or going to start Q1. New $1.4B low interest loan from china to build out the factory more.

                      Germany GF4 early agreements and probably going to break ground soon. The china factory went from muddy field to making cars in around 10 months (168 working days supposedly). Germany probably won't go up as fast but they have the china experience to roll into this factory.

                      New revenue streams. Free premium connectivity is ending for most, others grandfathered in. $10 a month per car I think is pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things now, but as more and more cars get on the road it'll be a decent chunk of change. The recent model 3 AWD acceleration boost. for the AWD models, they're offering a 0.5s decrease in 0-60 time for a $2k software unlock. Seems like a fair amount of people are getting it. I wonder if they'll do similar things to other models. Rumors are there's a ludicrous option for the model 3 performance in code. Also, I wonder with the new visualizations with the latest update if they'll realize more of the banked FSD money

                      Battery and powertrain investor day. Tesla keeps showing their battery management and motors are way more efficient than any other competitor. The taycan is a nice luxurious car but their EPA was dismal. waiting to see if independent testing improves that. Tesla keeps picking up smaller battery companies and tech, also attracting the smartest new grads for continued improvements and innovation. We'll probably hear interesting things during this presentation

                      Solar business. The acquisition of solar city was shady and more than likely a family bailout. That was the only negative thing in my mind about tesla as a company, but solar is getting more popular. California is supposedly requiring all new homes in California to have solar power soon. panels are getting more efficient and cheaper to make.

                      autonomy. robo taxi fleet? I'm in the camp that it's going to take forever to get regulators on board for this once the cars are able to drive themselves so I'm not holding my breath. In my rural area, there's a lot of unmarked roads and such, lots of sharp mountain turns. For whatever reason, once this becomes a thing, whoever reaches it first or at least level 4-5 is going to be huge

                      the transition to EVs is going to come soon. batteries are becoming cheaper and cheaper, and the charging infrastructure improves, ICE cars will all but be eliminated except for certain things. even if you don't like tesla and the minimalistic interior or design, driving an EV just makes more sense on a day to day basis and is much more pleasant. Tesla is leading the pack and it'll be an interesting future!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                        So just reviving this thread to see what people are thinking now with the relatively fast change in stock price and valuation. When it dipped below $200 I invested as much as I felt comfortable in a single stock in my roth and taxable accounts with majority still in index funds.

                        It's gone up a little too fast for me, but I'm planning on holding the stock I have long term while putting new capital into index funds.
                        I was thinking of making a small investment (~25k) in TSLA when it dropped a few months ago, but I couldn't pull the trigger. I think in the long run you made a wise decision, it will probably not go that low again for a while, unless they really muck up their 2020 timeline and model Y deliveries.

                        I can't wait for the Y to come out, I intend on trading in my 3 for it. X is too big for me, and I don't like the falcon wing doors.

                        Comment


                        • Not according to Honda...

                          Comment


                          • Qtr 4 will be telling. Even Morso is qtr 1 2020 post credits. The hard part is the competition rev up in 2020 and finally 2021. Will tesla have the resources to.maintain their head start or not?

                            Amazon did. Netscape didnt. Nor did myspace.

                            for reference, we still have our y reservation....but put down cybertruck for the replacement of our odyssey. May not get the y afterall!

                            Comment


                            • Certainly a number of positives have occurred:
                              a. Made a net profit during its most recent quarter, b. Elon Musk has managed to keep his tweeting out of the public/SEC spotlight, unlike certain political figures.

                              Issues still (IMO):
                              a. Given the capital investment related to vehicle manufacturing and the technology investments for its vehicles, the profit margin (though positive) needs to rise significantly, b. CMLTD is still a large issue to be addressed in a more strategic manner, and c. Turnover in the C-Suite.

                              Until a EV have similar costs and infrastructure (charging stations) as an ICE, I don't see envision EV taking over except via legislative fiat.

                              Comment


                              • The response to last quarter was great, and a little shocking. They had yoy/qoq growth stagnation and/or decline. That should have been a killer to the "growth narrative" and thus growth valuation. However, opposite occurred and they effectively shifted narrative to profit. Given the short interest in the stock this has fueled massive covering, just insanely skyrocketing price all coinciding with market in general/trade war resolving positively which just gave it more fuel.

                                Further positives are Elon has kept quiet, he won the court case making him appear bullet proof, thats really all he ever has to do,. This upcoming year I think their debt obligations are minimal to none which is also nice for them. They could try to raise money here with stock offering, would be a great idea. Other positives are global growth rebounding, if it occurs thats good for them.

                                Negatives are its still a car company and those are just not great economics, competition upcoming, what is saturation point of market, and of course the new valuation makes them less attractive long term. Be more interested depending on level of short interest and narrative shifts though. Lower short interest and a change of narrative are the only things I think can change the trend. This stock goes helter skelter one way and then the other, always has. Question is what could break the current narrative or keep it alive.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X