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Late stage meltup ? Opinions sought on allocating cash

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  • #31

    You’ve proven you’re lousy at market timing, so maybe you should quit doing that.
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    How do you do that?  Deciding to drop the cash back into the market is timing too.   :mrgreen:
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    Yep, it's hard to not market time again to get out of a market timing mistake.


    • #32
      Thanks everyone for your thoughts. It helped me to make a difficult decision and hopefully reverse an error.


      • #33

        What I found very helpful was mentorship from my father in real estate investing. He taught me the enormous potential for upside in real estate over decades. I never had the same in stocks, which might explain the disparity in results.
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        I think this mindset is very common.  Many real estate investors that I have spoken with seem to be totally unaware of how to invest in the stock market.  They are unaware of index funds, dividends, etc.  The only investment vehicle they know about is real estate.

        At age 44 you have nothing to worry about.  ( I didn't finish my last fellowship until age 37    ) With your income and expenses, you could have another 500k or more in cash every 2 years.   Given your real estate situation, having that 500k in cash  isn't really too much.  If you simply declare that to be your emergency fund plus a fund to cover real estate costs, you are no longer guilty of market timing.  Now you are just a prudent investor.  Then simply  start allocating new money to equity index funds in a reasonable way.  I wouldn't buy bonds now, beyond very short bills.

        If your expectations about your real estate holdings come to fruition, then you'll be looking pretty smart, and all of your concerns will have been unwarranted.   I think most of us worry more about making a mistake than actually losing money, hence the adage " better to fail conventionally that succeed unconventionally".