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  • #16




    Actually I should rephrase, I’m not so interested in Robert Kiyosaki, but his take on the current economy (no stocks, real estate and gold).  His podcasts present viewpoints I haven’t heard before.  On his podcasts over the past 2 months he has had these guests on, doug casey, dennis gartman, david stockman (contraian economists?) who all feel that the economy and stock market bubble is about to pop.  (and not just pop for some of these guys but collapse, doom and gloom talk).  Arguments like the fed keeps printing money and dumping into the system causing the dollar to have no value, the stock market is artificially inflated due to companies borrowing money at zero interest and doing huge stock buy backs, upcoming rising interest rates etc…

    I know the WCI and others have said the market is always at an all time high and I get it and agree, but are guys like these way out there or are they just nay-sayers waiting for the day that their argument comes true?

    I’m not an economist expert by any means, I’ve been saving cash for years and only this year finally got my finances in order and put a large portion of my portfolio into the market in feb after the last mini correction in a wealthfront after tax account (maxed out pre-tax).  I’ve still got 10 more years before retirement so I’m fine with corrections, but I guess I hear the little voice in the back of my head saying are you sure this was the right time?  Just looking for any level headed discussion on where we might be headed?  I guess that is why we diversify and hold firm and don’t time the market!

    Thanks!

    G2P
    Click to expand...


    The "level-headed" discussion of where we might be headed should start with "I have no idea." Any other statement isn't level-headed. It's speculative. Some will be right. Some will be wrong. Eventually, there will be a big bear market. That may either have a full recovery rapidly like in 2008, it may have a slow recovery like after 2000-2002, it may have multiple bears in a decade like the 1930s. It could also NOT come back like Egypt or the Soviet Union back in the day. Try to invest in a way where you are likely to be successful in many potential future outcomes. Are there some things you can say about the future? Sure.

    The best predictor of future bond returns is the current bond yield. Rarely are bond returns exactly what the current yield is, but that's probably where guesses should be centered. Thus, bonds bought in 2018 are likely going to have lower returns than bonds bought in 2007 or 2000.

    High stock market valuations have a low to moderate negative correlation with future stock market returns. So in general, buying when valuations are lower tends to lead to higher returns than buying when valuations are higher.

    Real estate also moves in cycles, but it can be extremely difficult to call the exact shifts. Nevertheless, when you find yourself bidding against 10 other buyers the day after the house comes on the market, it might not be the time to be buying a property using a buy and hold strategy. A property with a cap rate of 10 is likely to have better cash flow than a property with a cap rate of 4. Not necessarily a higher return, but certainly more of that return from income.

    It's actually very empowering to realize that nobody knows nothing. It frees you up to spend your time and life energy on something that can actually make a difference to your financial situation.
    Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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    • #17
      I liked Kiyosaki's book.  The main premise is good, that if you want to make money and build wealth you have to go out there and do it, not simply wait on the next cost-of-living raise or minor promotion.  Plus there was the gem about making cast lead nickels.

      Like the ed said above, a lot of the stuff in his book isn't repeatable.  I remember a lot in rich dad poor dad about how he bought homes at tax auction.  Unfortunately right now I just don't have the time to stand around all day at the sheriff's office with a bucket of cash.  But again the general idea of getting out there and finding a hustle is not a bad one.

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      • #18




        I gather from this thread that he offers financial advice. In this thread people have discounted his advice because (i) he lied about something and (ii) he filed bankruptcy.
        Click to expand...


        I don't think you gathered correctly.  His advice is largely bad, except for the most trite stuff.  He also lied about a lot of stuff.  Also one of his companies went bankrupt.

        People think his advice is bad because it is bad.  The other things are also true, and some people may have mentioned them within the same posts,  but they're not the reason why his advice is bad.

        Comment


        • #19







          I gather from this thread that he offers financial advice. In this thread people have discounted his advice because (i) he lied about something and (ii) he filed bankruptcy.
          Click to expand…


          I don’t think you gathered correctly.  His advice is largely bad, except for the most trite stuff.  He also lied about a lot of stuff.  Also one of his companies went bankrupt.

          People think his advice is bad because it is bad.  The other things are also true, and some people may have mentioned them within the same posts,  but they’re not the reason why his advice is bad.
          Click to expand...


          Maybe.  I don’t know who he is.  WCI said there are many pearls in his book.  Others said he is inspirational and helped early in their financial journey.  Later people discredited him by calling him a liar and saying his company went bankrupt.  My point is that it is a pointless exercise to tear people down personally to discredit their ideas.  Just discredit the ideas directly.  The other stuff doesn’t matter.

          It’s the same thing with someone like MMM.  I don’t care if the dude actually works three jobs and spends $300k a year.  Being authentic helps sell his brand, but it doesn’t automatically validate or discredit his ideas.

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          • #20










            I gather from this thread that he offers financial advice. In this thread people have discounted his advice because (i) he lied about something and (ii) he filed bankruptcy.
            Click to expand…


            I don’t think you gathered correctly.  His advice is largely bad, except for the most trite stuff.  He also lied about a lot of stuff.  Also one of his companies went bankrupt.

            People think his advice is bad because it is bad.  The other things are also true, and some people may have mentioned them within the same posts,  but they’re not the reason why his advice is bad.
            Click to expand…


            Maybe.  I don’t know who he is.  WCI said there are many pearls in his book.  Others said he is inspirational and helped early in their financial journey.  Later people discredited him by calling him a liar and saying his company went bankrupt.  My point is that it is a pointless exercise to tear people down personally to discredit their ideas.  Just discredit the ideas directly.  The other stuff doesn’t matter.

            It’s the same thing with someone like MMM.  I don’t care if the dude actually works three jobs and spends $300k a year.  Being authentic helps sell his brand, but it doesn’t automatically validate or discredit his ideas.
            Click to expand...


            What you're saying is true, but inapplicable.  Until you read some of his stuff, just take my word for it.  His advice is bad based on it's own (lack of) merit.  If you would like some analysis on why the ideas are bad, you can read the stuff by Reed (link posted earlier in thread).  Now he does spend a lot of time proving that lots of the stuff Kiyosaki claims are lies, but even if you disregard that, you're still left with a lot of bad ideas.  Here's a sampling from the link:

             

            Dangerous advice





              • "If you're gonna go broke, go broke big"

              • Convinces people that college is for suckers




            Law-breaking advice





              • Advocates committing a felony: have rich friends for trading stock based on non-public inside information, he says "That's what friends are for."

              • Recommends tax fraud by deducting vacations and health club dues

              • Brags about using a partner weasel clause in which his cat is his partner




             

            Like I said some of the most trite stuff (e.g. take initiative, look for ways to make passive income, etc.) is not untrue.  Most of the rest is garbage.  It's very different from the MMM situation, which I probably agree with you on.

            Comment


            • #21













              I gather from this thread that he offers financial advice. In this thread people have discounted his advice because (i) he lied about something and (ii) he filed bankruptcy.
              Click to expand…


              I don’t think you gathered correctly.  His advice is largely bad, except for the most trite stuff.  He also lied about a lot of stuff.  Also one of his companies went bankrupt.

              People think his advice is bad because it is bad.  The other things are also true, and some people may have mentioned them within the same posts,  but they’re not the reason why his advice is bad.
              Click to expand…


              Maybe.  I don’t know who he is.  WCI said there are many pearls in his book.  Others said he is inspirational and helped early in their financial journey.  Later people discredited him by calling him a liar and saying his company went bankrupt.  My point is that it is a pointless exercise to tear people down personally to discredit their ideas.  Just discredit the ideas directly.  The other stuff doesn’t matter.

              It’s the same thing with someone like MMM.  I don’t care if the dude actually works three jobs and spends $300k a year.  Being authentic helps sell his brand, but it doesn’t automatically validate or discredit his ideas.
              Click to expand…


              What you’re saying is true, but inapplicable.  Until you read some of his stuff, just take my word for it.  His advice is bad based on it’s own (lack of) merit.  If you would like some analysis on why the ideas are bad, you can read the stuff by Reed (link posted earlier in thread).  Now he does spend a lot of time proving that lots of the stuff Kiyosaki claims are lies, but even if you disregard that, you’re still left with a lot of bad ideas.

              Like I said some of the most trite stuff (e.g. take initiative, look for ways to make passive income, etc.) is not untrue.  Most of the rest is garbage.  It’s very different from the MMM situation, which I probably agree with you on.
              Click to expand...


              Hes basically a salesman, selling his own largely invented story. Seminars, workshops, etc...the whole bit. Like anyone else doing those things if they were so profitable and a great tactic they would continue doing it until it wasnt and sure as heck wouldnt be teaching others to do it. Unless of course that was actually the easier more profitable thing to be doing.

              What did Ed Thorpe do when he learned how to beat black jack and how to value options? Sure, he did eventually publish a book about black jack, and he was an academic so felt strongly towards disseminating info, but he did not divulge the option pricing formula. No, he started a hedge fund and used it until it became public knowledge.

               

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              • #22
                I remember him writing something awhile back about wanting to get into the education business. Looks like that's where he headed. Though, I will give him credit as that's what opened up my eyes to actually see the different types of income that exist. It was the title of the book and the purple cover that got me!  

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