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  • How much is Tech sector in your Portfolio?

    Is it reasonable to have total 21% of portfolio in technology sector with about 26 yrs. of investment/growth period & stable other parameters(i.e cash reserve, necessary insurances, maxing out, stable income, working spouse, frugal lifestyle etc.) and saving about 50% of AGI?

     

    Would you deviate? Why?

     

    Thanks.

  • #2




    Is it reasonable to have total 21% of portfolio in technology sector with about 26 yrs. of investment/growth period & stable other parameters(i.e cash reserve, necessary insurances, maxing out, stable income, working spouse, frugal lifestyle etc.) and saving about 50% of AGI?

     

    Would you deviate? Why?

     

    Thanks.
    Click to expand...


    Not sure exactly what you mean. How do you define this 21%? Do you have specific tech funds?

    Anyone who owns the S/P is 24+% allocated to tech given its weighting in the market. QQQ, much more. Any large cap index will be stuffed to the gills with it.

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    • #3




      Is it reasonable to have total 21% of portfolio in technology sector with about 26 yrs. of investment/growth period & stable other parameters(i.e cash reserve, necessary insurances, maxing out, stable income, working spouse, frugal lifestyle etc.) and saving about 50% of AGI?

       

      Would you deviate? Why?

       

      Thanks.
      Click to expand...


      Total Stock market has 19% tech stocks -- https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT&funds_disable_redirect=true#tab=2

      - WSP

      Comment


      • #4







        Is it reasonable to have total 21% of portfolio in technology sector with about 26 yrs. of investment/growth period & stable other parameters(i.e cash reserve, necessary insurances, maxing out, stable income, working spouse, frugal lifestyle etc.) and saving about 50% of AGI?

         

        Would you deviate? Why?

         

        Thanks.
        Click to expand…


        Total Stock market has 19% tech stocks — https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0585&FundIntExt=INT&funds_disable_redirect=true#tab=2

        – WSP
        Click to expand...


        Wow! That seems pretty high. I wonder what it was in 1999.
        Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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        • #5
          I just checked my portfolio.  I have 27% in tech.  I own some Apple.  I am not worried about this.  The most successful companies are classified as tech.  You could argue that Google and facebook are advertisers.  This is not 1999. All these companies have great earnings.

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          • #6
            When the five largest companies in the world are all tech stocks -- Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft -- it seemed reasonable to me. Not sure what it was in 1999.

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            • #7
              Market is going to market. The beauty of investing in total market index funds is that you don’t have to know, care, or check.

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              • #8
                It looks like it was about 35% in 1999. Another 10% in Telecom. Lots of people in the 90s had a "5% tilt to tech and another 5% tilt to telecom."

                https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https://www.bespokepremium.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/weightingshistorical.png&imgrefurl=https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/sp-500-sector-weightings-historical-and-current/&h=515&w=890&tbnid=PYb4XFBOmGYM8M:&tbnh=122&tbnw=210&usg=__Ile_bk2QWfrjS5-ZeOnRxZtMWy4%3D&vet=10ahUKEwiXt7iQ0f7YAhVDvFMKHWkhDuYQ9QEIKzAA..i&docid=rlzoeJYTMsbj8M&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiXt7iQ0f7YAhVDvFMKHWkhDuYQ9QEIKzAA
                Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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                • #9




                  As of this morning, I own -24% Tech (yes I shorted QQQ) in my small trading account (~1% of total accounts). Chose it over S&P or small cap given higher sensitivity to rising rates imho. Given the bubble probably isn’t over, I know this is degenerate level gambling but it broke support levels. If it fills in the gap tomorrow (but doesn’t violate resistance or stops), I will add more. Feel free to use me as your contra.  I plan to lose a little and am unlikely to hold it more than a few days but somewhat expect a correction through March. This market is so obscene at this point, I call B.S. on principle.

                  For full disclosure, my entire hobby trading account pretty starts with “short”. Can’t believe it but it’s true.
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                  I like shorting as well, but not those kind of assets. Tech companies (qqq) have very high margins and high growth, tax stuff will boost them narratively in short term. Always sketchy shorting a bubble, easier if theyve already had some weakness.

                  SPX cant even break the 13ema. Bonds on the other hand being hurt as expected.

                  Comment


                  • #10










                    As of this morning, I own -24% Tech (yes I shorted QQQ) in my small trading account (~1% of total accounts). Chose it over S&P or small cap given higher sensitivity to rising rates imho. Given the bubble probably isn’t over, I know this is degenerate level gambling but it broke support levels. If it fills in the gap tomorrow (but doesn’t violate resistance or stops), I will add more. Feel free to use me as your contra.  I plan to lose a little and am unlikely to hold it more than a few days but somewhat expect a correction through March. This market is so obscene at this point, I call B.S. on principle.

                    For full disclosure, my entire hobby trading account pretty starts with “short”. Can’t believe it but it’s true.
                    Click to expand…


                    I like shorting as well, but not those kind of assets. Tech companies (qqq) have very high margins and high growth, tax stuff will boost them narratively in short term. Always sketchy shorting a bubble, easier if theyve already had some weakness.

                    SPX cant even break the 13ema. Bonds on the other hand being hurt as expected.
                    Click to expand…


                    prefer to be long something and not to short but as they say “when in Rome”.

                    Was deciding between spy and qqq. Could have gone either way. Spy and qqq are highly correlated most of the time right now so probably just 6 of one/half a dozen of the other.

                    Agree I will probably lose money shorting this time and have lost a some (and won some) in the past. Need at least a few more 10-20% monthly gains to feel more confident about shorting this mother of a bubble. Was hoping for one more higher high today for a short term play but it is what it is.

                    I expect to lose some, and am hoping just to break even or win even a little bit. But if equities continue to correct as rates keep rising (and bonds keep falling) while the vix spikes, well then maybe, just maybe…


                    Click to expand...


                    VIX was a bit stretched ahead of things, and even as we tested the days lows, futures didnt react and were well below their highs. Doesn mean they cant do something further, but theyll need some kind of increased pressure to keep that side going. Not saying it cant happen, just didnt seem to be to concerned today, and with VXST>VIX, and VVIX>110, board still in contango (barely) these kind of numbers have marked short term bottoms or at the least short term problems. VIX futs flat to slight down, SPX futures up, but a long night ahead.

                    At least QQQ is more volatile and you can book some gains easier that way. SOTU address tonight and usually that goes well, and from remarks I've seen looks pretty good overall, and of course most important Apple, Amazon, Google, Alibaba, etc...earnings this week, and they were strong today in poor market. RSI retreated from overbought.

                    Now if unemployment/jobs which is later this week come in soft (and they likely will be a little bit as the trend has been slowing), you may have something. Just seems like a dangerous time. Why not just short stuff thats going down?

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                    • #11
                      Looking rough out there, your short is doing alright. Whats your target?

                      Comment


                      • #12




                         


                        I know the feeling. I’ve been considering some long dated S&P puts, but every time I get close to pulling the trigger I recall that moment in 2009 when mark to market was nullified. My financial shorts got killed. All bears will be shot as part of macro prudential policy until Mother Nature finally shows who is boss. 
                        Click to expand…


                        Definitely not a pro but this time around, I wouldn’t be surprised if everything gets locked down, regardless of if you are short or long (i.e. capital controls) and when it opens back up, everyone will have lost a lot of money. There was a reason people put money under their mattresses for decades after the 1930s. Who knows how this plays out but that doesn’t mean we cant have a little fun along the way.
                        Click to expand...


                        The end of everything is usually not a good investing scenario. Your short did well. Went out on the lows, not usually a great sign, but was orderly today. Was hoping for a bit more fireworks myself.

                        Comment


                        • #13










                           


                          I know the feeling. I’ve been considering some long dated S&P puts, but every time I get close to pulling the trigger I recall that moment in 2009 when mark to market was nullified. My financial shorts got killed. All bears will be shot as part of macro prudential policy until Mother Nature finally shows who is boss. 
                          Click to expand…


                          Definitely not a pro but this time around, I wouldn’t be surprised if everything gets locked down, regardless of if you are short or long (i.e. capital controls) and when it opens back up, everyone will have lost a lot of money. There was a reason people put money under their mattresses for decades after the 1930s. Who knows how this plays out but that doesn’t mean we cant have a little fun along the way.
                          Click to expand…


                          The end of everything is usually not a good investing scenario. Your short did well. Went out on the lows, not usually a great sign, but was orderly today. Was hoping for a bit more fireworks myself.
                          Click to expand…


                          Yes, today was a good day, not just for my QQQ short. Even I get lucky every once in a while. Keeping the short. If fireworks happen, it would more likely be Mon or Tues or the next few weeks/months IMHO, but it’s all a guess. Next week, I could be even back to where I was yesterday. This isn’t where I hold the majority of my assets so this really is just for fun.

                          I don’t view it as the end of everything. Indices only dropped 2%. Will have to see how the next few years play out.
                          Click to expand...


                          Today was a good day for me as well. Yes, we basically closed out on the lows today, but very orderly. If you look at the vix term structure it looks stupid. Spot vol is a whole 2 points above the whole curve, ridiculous. They werent buying it, but its still a tailwind vol wise. Vol is serially correlated and vol begets vol. Could of course just crush monday, but thats what makes it so interesting.

                          I am long vol into the weekend, and dont think I've done that in this manner before (shorter term, more direct ways). Used winnings from today to let this small portion ride. The market this week just never looked good, even though it didnt move much overall, it was so erratic and kept lower lows, etc...which isnt good. Slowly scaled out, and got long some vol.

                          If vol is rising, rising, etc...kind of a warning sign. Not perfect, but certainly would have missed the crazy horrid days (1987, 8/24/15) by paying attention to it.

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                          • #14
                            FWIW, if the slingshot is happening tonight and/or tomorrow, I sold my QQQ short this am. Hit my target, looked like it was going to bounce and didn’t have the time to pay attention today. C’mon, the first drop is never THE DROP.

                            As said before, I’ve got the WORST TIMING EVER.

                            Click to expand...



                            Pfft. Let me tell you a story.

                            I was long vol over the weekend via a couple leftovers from friday (house money, etc..)

                            I owned SVXY 110 puts, only 2 left, for this week. Its a zero, and I sold at likely the same time you did, thinking what was I thinking, btfd always wins. Come on.
                            Also, many UVXY calls expiring march and sold for hardly anything in context at a similar time.

                            Was almost 100% cash in main accounts, but very meekly tried to btd and not spend too much time out of the market, Im sure when tomorrow opens that will be ugly. Most cash in main large accounts still thank luck.

                            I think I learned my lesson, even when perfectly positioned I cant come close to getting the profit my positions were capable of, and when its most important the market doesnt work. I sold some calls for likely 50% less than value due to spreads and MM going wild, and the futures market literally freezed up. I was long feb vx and it should have hit a stop, but area was frozen, could not cancel or trade. It ended up great and sold at stop that was very nice, now wish it hadnt, lol.

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                            • #15
                              Might be an interesting day, again like 8/24/2015. Where you could throw a hail mary or two entering 50-75% bids gtc on etfs you might want to own in case theres a similar flash/NAV issue in am. Also pertinent if you have plain stops, you may sell extremely below market in a shaky open.

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