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  • #46




    Much like my previous thread, Donnie comes in like a bull in a china shop with poor understanding of what/where/how to trade cryptocurrencies and with absolutely zero effort to accurately characterize anything I’ve said. I’ll make this simple.

    -I haven’t put more fiat into crypto since last spring

    -alt coins are paired with BTC, therefore it does not require new fiat to “buy” or “pick up some” alt coins. My claim about adding some alt coins in December doesn’t make me a liar, it makes you naïve at best and maligning at worst.

    -I told you exactly what price I put in a short on BTC, It was $7k and $9k below the top. I have no idea where tops and bottoms will be.

    -Being bullish on BTC and opening a short as technical indicators and fundamentals say it’s headed towards $8k (it went even lower for a bit) are not mutually exclusive.

    -Donnie is a doctor, he can use google and figure out the various ways to short bitcoin and to trade with leverage. I’m not sure why he wants the guy that’s “making up stories” and potentially harming people who are trying to make good financial decisions, to tell everyone where they too can go full degen…
    Click to expand...


    Pics or it didn’t happen.  Post any evidence (trade confirms, account screenshots, etc.) of anything you say.

    Posting tales of get rich quick stories causes harm to this community in my view, especially if they are made up.  Interactive Brokers required $40k to put on a single short position when BTC was around $17k.  IBKR is one of the few brokers offering BTC shorts.  No one is letting you lever up BTC shorts that I know of.

    Based on this thread, I think you are making up stories, but I am open to being educated, so please do so.

     

    Comment


    • #47



      5X ? That is nuts. With the volatility in bitcoin, you don’t need any leverage.


      Leverage is like speed in driving. At 150 miles an hour there is a 100% chance you will have a nasty accident. It is a matter of when not if.
      Click to expand...


      IDK about that analogy.  You can drive 150mph pretty easily without having an accident.  In fact I'd say the chance is near-zero.   :P  

       

      Comment


      • #48
        Kind of a fun thought exercise:

        Is there a price at which you'd be a buyer of Bitcoin (long)?

        If so, what?

        I wonder if I'd buy if it got down to $250 again. I don't think it'll go this low, and I kind of doubt 2017 will ever happen again, but I might be tempted to throw $1K into it if it did go that low.

        Of all the possible endgames for Bitcoin, going to $0 seems pretty unlikely to me.
        Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

        Comment


        • #49




          Of all the possible endgames for Bitcoin, going to $0 seems pretty unlikely to me.
          Click to expand...


          Not according to Goldman.

          Comment


          • #50




            Kind of a fun thought exercise:

            Is there a price at which you’d be a buyer of Bitcoin (long)?

            If so, what?

            I wonder if I’d buy if it got down to $250 again. I don’t think it’ll go this low, and I kind of doubt 2017 will ever happen again, but I might be tempted to throw $1K into it if it did go that low.

            Of all the possible endgames for Bitcoin, going to $0 seems pretty unlikely to me.
            Click to expand...


            I was going to buy when it got below 10k, but my chosen dealer's website was down at the time.

            Good thing in retrospect, huh?

            Yes, it is a fun thought experiment.  This would be a good project for one of Kahneman's students.

            Comment


            • #51
              A friend of mine, who is a rather conservative investor, bought one share of Litecoin just to see what it was about.  He just sold out at a profit.  The volatility was freaking him out.  Oh, his profit was $5 and I think he was happy to walk away.

              Comment


              • #52







                Much like my previous thread, Donnie comes in like a bull in a china shop with poor understanding of what/where/how to trade cryptocurrencies and with absolutely zero effort to accurately characterize anything I’ve said. I’ll make this simple.

                -I haven’t put more fiat into crypto since last spring

                -alt coins are paired with BTC, therefore it does not require new fiat to “buy” or “pick up some” alt coins. My claim about adding some alt coins in December doesn’t make me a liar, it makes you naïve at best and maligning at worst.

                -I told you exactly what price I put in a short on BTC, It was $7k and $9k below the top. I have no idea where tops and bottoms will be.

                -Being bullish on BTC and opening a short as technical indicators and fundamentals say it’s headed towards $8k (it went even lower for a bit) are not mutually exclusive.

                -Donnie is a doctor, he can use google and figure out the various ways to short bitcoin and to trade with leverage. I’m not sure why he wants the guy that’s “making up stories” and potentially harming people who are trying to make good financial decisions, to tell everyone where they too can go full degen…
                Click to expand…


                Pics or it didn’t happen.  Post any evidence (trade confirms, account screenshots, etc.) of anything you say.

                Posting tales of get rich quick stories causes harm to this community in my view, especially if they are made up.  Interactive Brokers required $40k to put on a single short position when BTC was around $17k.  IBKR is one of the few brokers offering BTC shorts.  No one is letting you lever up BTC shorts that I know of.

                Based on this thread, I think you are making up stories, but I am open to being educated, so please do so.

                 
                Click to expand...


                You clearly have no desire to be educated despite your claims, you didn't even bother googling "trading BTC with leverage" which would have pulled up plenty of resources. I've never even heard of IBKR. I mean you didn't even bother to figure out where a majority of BTC is traded. When your posts contain words like poloneix, bitfinex, bitmex, kcoin, kraken, gdax I'll know you are more than just a willfully ignorant instigator and will oblige some of your requests. Until then you can continue to believe that if some institutional broker doesn't offer shorts, they must not exist.

                 

                In regards to WCI's thought exercise. In my current position I personally wouldn't put any more money into bitcoin no matter the price, I'm only withdrawing at this point even if that means riding it down to zero. If I had zero dollars currently tied up and was going in for the first time the number would be somewhere around the estimated cost to mine 1 BTC. Currently that's a couple thousand dollars but will change as various scaling solutions are implemented. That would be what I paid attention to if I was looking for a price to get in.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Anyone who refers to actual money as “fiat” came to the wrong website if they’re posting here

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Why don’t you post exactly what you did instead of deflecting and adding nuance to prior statements. You may not know, but I work on Wall Street so don’t need to Google these things.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      WCI, I'd rather bet $100 on the pass line with five times odds.

                      Comment


                      • #56




                        Anyone who refers to actual money as “fiat” came to the wrong website if they’re posting here
                        Click to expand...


                        You're highlighting one of my frustrations with a lot of bitcoin pundits using that term. Of course the USD is "fiat money" by the economic term and has been since Nixon, but bitcoin is also fiat money by the same definition (that is, money not backed by something with intrinsic value). Burning a lot of electricity doesn't give your currency intrinsic value.

                         

                        Don't misinterpret those statements. I mean intrinsic value in the strict economic definition of the term. I mean fiat money in the strict definition of the term. Burning electricity gives btc rarity, not intrinsic value. Also, some authors mean "fiat" as strictly money backed by government decree, obviously that wouldn't apply to btc with that much more strict definition.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Interesting take on the development of cryptocurrency

                           

                           

                          http://www.epsilontheory.com/too-clever-by-half/

                          Comment


                          • #58




                            Interesting take on the development of cryptocurrency

                             

                             

                            http://www.epsilontheory.com/too-clever-by-half/
                            Click to expand...


                            I like this article because it acknowledges there is innovation behind cryptocurrency. Leveraging into dotcoms, real estate, and bitcoin can cost people big but investing with diversity ("indexing" into these innovative markets) is profitable. Buying tech stock index funds in the late 90s, buying multiple rentable properties in 2007, and buying bitcoin mid 2017 - as long one had the discipline and the ability to hold - all were profitable investments even when the bubbles burst.

                            Comment


                            • #59







                              Interesting take on the development of cryptocurrency

                               

                               

                              http://www.epsilontheory.com/too-clever-by-half/
                              Click to expand…


                              I like this article because it acknowledges there is innovation behind cryptocurrency. Leveraging into dotcoms, real estate, and bitcoin can cost people big but investing with diversity (“indexing” into these innovative markets) is profitable. Buying tech stock index funds in the late 90s, buying multiple rentable properties in 2007, and buying bitcoin mid 2017 – as long one had the discipline and the ability to hold – all were profitable investments even when the bubbles burst.
                              Click to expand...


                              That is not what I got out of the article. It was basically equating bitcoin (backed by math!!!) to MBS (look at my equation!) and showing the whole idea is similar and it is far from new. Bitcoins real issue is it doesnt work very well nor solve any TAM issue. Its just a different iteration of get rich without risk because its backed by a beautiful equation. Equations dont understand that human psychology will ruin any fail safe imaginable.

                              Comment


                              • #60










                                Interesting take on the development of cryptocurrency

                                 

                                 

                                http://www.epsilontheory.com/too-clever-by-half/
                                Click to expand…


                                I like this article because it acknowledges there is innovation behind cryptocurrency. Leveraging into dotcoms, real estate, and bitcoin can cost people big but investing with diversity (“indexing” into these innovative markets) is profitable. Buying tech stock index funds in the late 90s, buying multiple rentable properties in 2007, and buying bitcoin mid 2017 – as long one had the discipline and the ability to hold – all were profitable investments even when the bubbles burst.
                                Click to expand…


                                That is not what I got out of the article. It was basically equating bitcoin (backed by math!!!) to MBS (look at my equation!) and showing the whole idea is similar and it is far from new. Bitcoins real issue is it doesnt work very well nor solve any TAM issue. Its just a different iteration of get rich without risk because its backed by a beautiful equation. Equations dont understand that human psychology will ruin any fail safe imaginable.
                                Click to expand...


                                Broadly related to this discussion (silly example with a game, but interesting analysis on formulaic failures) http://planetbanatt.net/articles/ambistats.html

                                Also this book https://www.amazon.com/dp/0553418831/ which is on the reading list.

                                Comment

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