Perfect Storm for disaster?

[Tim]

Sounds complicated with a lot of “if thens” that I’m sure make backtesting look pretty.

Lifecycle: at this point in my lifecycle I should have X invested in equities, Y in bonds, Z in commodities etc. Use leverage only if needed to get there.

Seems a bit more cohesive and straightforward

I love the simplicity. How do I solve for X,Y and Z with one equation? Do I really have to have commodities? Which equities? By the way, how do I know when life ends? Another dang equation to solve.

Just saying your simple plan isn’t as simple and straightforward as it seems.

So you had all-time highs to 30% crash to 35% rally to 30% crash to 40%+ rally all within the span of less than 18 months. (Apple).

My plan is just to sit on my AA and enjoy the ride. We just might be going into a raging bull market.

[Tangler]

I love the simplicity. How do I solve for X,Y and Z with one equation? Do I really have to have commodities? Which equities? By the way, how do I know when life ends? Another dang equation to solve.

Just saying your simple plan isn’t as simple and straightforward as it seems.

So you had all-time highs to 30% crash to 35% rally to 30% crash to 40%+ rally all within the span of less than 18 months. (Apple).

My plan is just to sit on my AA and enjoy the ride. We just might be going into a raging bull market.

Very few (no one? ) reliably and repeatedly times the market correctly over long periods.

Best to buy and hold fixed AA for most (almost all) of your retirement savings.

Perhaps try to time it, or pick stocks or trade options or gamble/ speculate with a small amount in a separate account if you really cannot deny the urge.

Best to just do something else for entertainment and excitement, IMO.

I don’t claim to know what will happen in the next 6mo, or year, or 3 years, or 5 years but I am willing to bet that over 10, 15. 20, 25 years my stock index funds will grow and compound.

Lucky that we don’t need to know in the short term

[auggie1983]

I love the simplicity. How do I solve for X,Y and Z with one equation? Do I really have to have commodities? Which equities? By the way, how do I know when life ends? Another dang equation to solve.

Just saying your simple plan isn’t as simple and straightforward as it seems.

So you had all-time highs to 30% crash to 35% rally to 30% crash to 40%+ rally all within the span of less than 18 months. (Apple).

My plan is just to sit on my AA and enjoy the ride. We just might be going into a raging bull market.

How did you come up with your asset allocation? Isn’t your allocation based on an approximation of where you are on your financial journey? An approximation of how long you expect to earn, to live, your goals? You don’t circumvent your same questions.

[Tim]

How did you come up with your asset allocation?
40 years of mistakes after an MBA.

Isn’t your allocation based on an approximation of where you are on your financial journey?
No. Agnostic to market and age.

An approximation of how long you expect to earn, to live, your goals?
No. Pure capital allocation decisions. My goal is to spend as I choose and leave the remainder to heirs.

You don’t circumvent your same questions.

Not exactly sure what the last sentence means.

I hit index funds around 2009. Bonds aren’t a percentage and I don’t “invest” in commodities.

[triad]

sounds good. if headline CPI released in July is above 4.0 you win, below 4.0 I win and at 4.0 we each get a powerball

tomorrow is CPI day and it looks like there is a non-zero chance I win this bet a month early

[CordMcNally]

tomorrow is CPI day and it looks like there is a non-zero chance I win this bet a month early

How would you win a July CPI bet in June?

[triad]

How would you win a July CPI bet in June?

the direction of travel for headline will be down for the next two reports just due to base effects of replacing the very high june and july numbers last year. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...ation-rate-mom

realistically, I "won" that bet the day I made it.

[CordMcNally]

the direction of travel for headline will be down for the next two reports just due to base effects of replacing the very high june and july numbers last year. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...ation-rate-mom

realistically, I "won" that bet the day I made it.

We shall see what July looks like.

[triad]

tomorrow is CPI day and it looks like there is a non-zero chance I win this bet a month early

It's like I can see the future lol
we're actually gonna have a non zero chance of a 2 handle next month!

I sometimes feel bad about taking advantage of doomers who don't do the maths... But how else will you guys learn?

[CordMcNally]

It's like I can see the future lol
we're actually gonna have a non zero chance of a 2 handle next month!

I sometimes feel bad about taking advantage of doomers who don't do the maths... But how else will you guys learn?

There’s one thing I’ve learned in life and that there’s pretty much zero upside on trying to do an early victory lap, however, I do enjoy seeing premature victory laps failing.

[triad]

There’s one thing I’ve learned in life and that there’s pretty much zero upside on trying to do an early victory lap, however, I do enjoy seeing premature victory laps failing.

point of fact - i'm taking quite a lot of pleasure with my gloating today

i'm not celebrating the spx bet yet as that is very much in doubt. but the inflation bet was just a basic math problem.

https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1668622857415573507

if the laws of math go out the window and I lose the inflation bet... i look forward to you mocking me mercilessly

[CordMcNally]

point of fact - i'm taking quite a lot of pleasure with my gloating today

i'm not celebrating the spx bet yet as that is very much in doubt. but the inflation bet was just a basic math problem.

https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1668622857415573507

if the laws of math go out the window and I lose the inflation bet... i look forward to you mocking me mercilessly

Inflation doesn’t really care about math. If it were a simple math problem then there’d never be any surprises and the rate would be easily predicted fairly far out.

[triad]

Inflation doesn’t really care about math. If it were a simple math problem then there’d never be any surprises and the rate would be easily predicted fairly far out.

yes, technically true. but at the time we made the wagers I estimated I was a 60/40 favorite to win the spx bet. but at worst 95/5 to win the inflation bet.

considering I accept 49/51 playing baccarat in vegas these are great odds for me

[Cool Breeze]

Something will break soon. The retrace of all the delusional legacy buyers is complete. I'll see you in the depression next year. I shorted some more today.

[Tangler]

Something will break soon. The retrace of all the delusional legacy buyers is complete. I'll see you in the depression next year. I shorted some more today.

Please come back next year and tell us how amazing you did and how foolish we were for being bullish on stocks for the long run.

Better yet, tell us when exactly do you expect the bottom to occur and when (if ever) you plan on once again going long on stocks.

Short tern market performance (<5 years) is impossible to predict.

Noise.

These periods are full of unpredictable nonsense irrelevant for the long term investor.

My plan works regardless of what the market does in the short term. Does yours?

Will next year be lower than today? Maybe, but impossible to predict and foolish to forecast.

I will keep buying now (and next year) and keep investing by slowing buying with new income.

This $ is needed 20 years from now, and will be invested accordingly.

I will keep buying VTI, VXUS, VIOV and I imagine in 20 years I will be happy I went long stocks.