Who is buying s&p now??

[gvs.psych]

Since I'm only 6 years out of fellowship, this entire period seems a great opportunity to pile a lot of money into a market that is 30% below its all time highs and at this point if I can save for another year and see a return to all time high in the year after I will probably be FI. Of course it could take longer for us to get back to all time highs but there is massive amounts of innovation going on write now and I just published my first academic article written but ChatGPT and am optimistic about the value that this economy is going to generate. When I started investing in 2009 people were even more negative and brought up debt and the fed and confusing stuff and then four tech companies proceeded to massively increase the size of the economy by selling zillions of phones, dominating global ad markets, leading the revolution in cloud computing, and generating $100s of billions in goods and services. It's gonna happen again and we are all gonna be able to participate.

[Tangler]

Since I'm only 6 years out of fellowship, this entire period seems a great opportunity to pile a lot of money into a market that is 30% below its all time highs and at this point if I can save for another year and see a return to all time high in the year after I will probably be FI. Of course it could take longer for us to get back to all time highs but there is massive amounts of innovation going on write now and I just published my first academic article written but ChatGPT and am optimistic about the value that this economy is going to generate. When I started investing in 2009 people were even more negative and brought up debt and the fed and confusing stuff and then four tech companies proceeded to massively increase the size of the economy by selling zillions of phones, dominating global ad markets, leading the revolution in cloud computing, and generating $100s of billions in goods and services. It's gonna happen again and we are all gonna be able to participate.

Time is on your side.

[WorkforFIRE]

This could be the start of an epic collapse. SVB is just the first bank. If rates keep going up, we gonna have some serious declined…50% drop I bet.

just keep buying.

[doctorbone]

Why are people freaking out over one bank in SF? Did we have this much panic in March, 2020?

I bought more vxus today

[Tangler]

Why are people freaking out over one bank in SF? Did we have this much panic in March, 2020?

I bought more vxus today

I think it is the whole picture. Incompetent leadership, inflation, rising rates,……

I don’t recommend worrying, but I am not blind.

I think the market is going down.

🤷♂️ Hope I am wrong. Certainly I realize I don’t know with any certainty.

I will keep working extra. good time to work and save.

Just keep buying.

[Touchdown]

I’m not exactly bullish on stocks at the moment, the fed is raising rates, inflation is decreasing at a slower rate then expected, we still have a war in Europe, and China is sabre rattling. Doesn’t mean I’m not buying, I am, all my US equities purchases this year are in my taxable account which mean I buy every first trading day of the month as that’s when my auto buy is scheduled. I don’t try to time the market.

[FIREshrink]

have saved/invested 40-60% of our income for over twenty years and don't plan to stop any time soon.

[chocolatebear11]

Why are people freaking out over one bank in SF? Did we have this much panic in March, 2020?

I bought more vxus today

Could there be other smaller regional banks in the same situation?

I’m sure SVB did not have some unique strategy.

[bovie]

Could there be other smaller regional banks in the same situation?

I’m sure SVB did not have some unique strategy.

They kind of did, though.

Highly concentrated in companies with literally no earnings, often no revenue.

And the people that run them.

[xraygoggles]

Could there be other smaller regional banks in the same situation?

I’m sure SVB did not have some unique strategy.

It's entirely plausible there are some bank runs on Monday on similar banks that cater to startups/VCs, like First Republic Bank, and some others. Hopefully not, but who knows.

[Bellescamp]

In 2018 it was decided to axe regulatory requirements for regional banks with less than $250 billion in assets

[Tim]

In 2018 it was decided to axe regulatory requirements for regional banks with less than $250 billion in assets

Might need some clarification.
•Stress testing was one requirement,
•Capital requirements is another.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/12/3.10

The Fed was aware that raising rates needed to be considered and was publicly commenting 12/2022.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-fed-weighing-changes-bank-capital-rules-better-account-unexpected-stress-barr-2022-12-01/

Reactive and behind the curve.

[CordMcNally]

It's entirely plausible there are some bank runs on Monday on similar banks that cater to startups/VCs, like First Republic Bank, and some others. Hopefully not, but who knows.

There was already a video showing people lined up outside First Republic Bank. Sunday night and Monday morning could make things interesting based on if anything comes out late Sunday and what human behavior does on Monday.

[WorkforFIRE]

Could there be other smaller regional banks in the same situation?

I’m sure SVB did not have some unique strategy.

yes. Lots of smaller banks.
the issue is the treasury bonds purchased with long term horizon and people calling deposits.
recipe for disaster.

this could continue to get ugly

[Tangler]

bought yesterday. VIOO, VTI, VIOV, VXUS.
just keep buying.