Who is buying s&p now??

[ScubaV]

I tried doing some market timing. It didn't work out.

Because I have VTSAX in my taxable and 403b/457b/Roth accounts (and it's not clear if this matters for a wash sale) there's only a few windows per year I can try doing some tax loss harvesting. This fall, 30 days had elapsed since my final non-taxable contribution and I had about ~$3k ish losses I could potentially harvest. All the financial news was bad, so I figured why not wait for some more losses and really make it worth my time to figure out how to do it and which funds to switch to. Except the S&P flatlined and then went up and then wavered despite everyone talking about how bad things were going to be. So I figured "screw it, not gonna bother with TLH" and just did my backlogged and regular taxable contributions. The S&P promptly dropped back down...

[Panscan]

I tried doing some market timing. It didn't work out.

Because I have VTSAX in my taxable and 403b/457b/Roth accounts (and it's not clear if this matters for a wash sale) there's only a few windows per year I can try doing some tax loss harvesting. This fall, 30 days had elapsed since my final non-taxable contribution and I had about ~$3k ish losses I could potentially harvest. All the financial news was bad, so I figured why not wait for some more losses and really make it worth my time to figure out how to do it and which funds to switch to. Except the S&P flatlined and then went up and then wavered despite everyone talking about how bad things were going to be. So I figured "screw it, not gonna bother with TLH" and just did my backlogged and regular taxable contributions. The S&P promptly dropped back down...

extremely insignificant in long term

[WorkforFIRE]

But in a paper published two decades ago, David Leinweber and Dave Krider found that butter production in Bangladesh had the tightest correlation to the S&P 500 of any data series they could find. It wasn’t GDP growth…it wasn’t earnings…it was Bangladeshi butter, which “explained” 99% of the S&P 500’s movements. The authors weren’t quacks.

very interested to know what the butter is doing now…

[Tangler]

Very good questions. It's all about having a market thesis and acting on it. Once the thesis is invalidated, I change my position. I'm currently short SPX. Thesis is that market is trying to front run a fed pivot which is unlikely to happen this year.

The market is currently pricing in the following:
-only 50 bps left of rate hikes with a terminal rate below 5%
-rate cuts by next year
-no recession

If any of those turn out to be wrong, we have further to fall

Based on technicals, I would close shorts at 3750 and re-enter long 50% at that position. Re-enter 25% at 3600 and final 25% at 3500.

If we do not drop further from here and close above 4200 on a weekly candle, i re-enter at a loss

If we drop to 3750, I'm 50% in and then we go up again, I re-enter at 4000 for breakeven on the remaining 50%.

If Jerome starts speaking dovish at the next FOMC, I close all shorts and re-enter (at a likely loss)

Just have to be disciplined, don't get attached to a position. Also not for everyone, I just love researching the markets. I would definitely come out ahead using this time to work clinical medicine instead of market research but that sounds like an absolutely miserable road to burnout, at least for me

wow, that sounds like a lot of work. Too hard for this simple guy.
Cool blog & pictures.
I honestly hope you kill it. cool stuff, but not for me.

[ScubaV]

extremely insignificant in long term

For sure. I'm not losing any sleep over it. But it was a good, cheap lesson that market timing doesn't work. The market can and will act irrationally. Everything is priced in, until it isn't and stonks only go up.

[blippi]

very interested to know what the butter is doing now…

well, i just shipped a herd of cattle to bangladesh. so let me steer you to the idea that if you moove assets into s&p now expect to milk some profits in a few weeks.

like buttah

[Random1]

I still find it amazing that "amateurs" still think they can consistently beat the market with some sort of technical analysis. Even Bill Miller, one of the best long term fund managers in consistently beating the market for years, had a lot of skill and his superior performance was more attributable to luck than knowledge in the long run.

[Tangler]

last few days bought: VTI, VIOV, VXUS.

Just keep buying.

Hang tight. Might be a bouncy ride folks, but we have a long way until RMDs so time is on our side….IMO

[nephron]

For the past few years, I have been automatic transfers every 30 days to vanguard to purchase vtsax. I recently the automatic transfers to the vanguard S+P fund so that I could have more flexibility in tax loss harvesting with my vtsax fund. Lately, I have been reading about international funds being forecast to be better (although I seem to recall reading the same articles 10 years ago) so I switched my automatic transfers to the vtiax (total international fund). I think that's going to be my investor statement policy, just re-direct my automatic purchases into whatever is looking good.

[WorkforFIRE]

I’m depositing 43.5k tomorrow into my after tax account to set up my mega backdoor roth early next week.

keep on buying. S&P500.

[matia]

I’m depositing 43.5k tomorrow into my after tax account to set up my mega backdoor roth early next week.

keep on buying. S&P500.

Is there a limit as to how much one can deposit into an after tax account to backdoor roth? My husband's plan has a certain percentage like maybe 10-15% he can contribute to the after-tax. But I wonder if there are any limits per IRS or is this just plan specific.

[WorkforFIRE]

Is there a limit as to how much one can deposit into an after tax account to backdoor roth? My husband's plan has a certain percentage like maybe 10-15% he can contribute to the after-tax. But I wonder if there are any limits per IRS or is this just plan specific.

Mine is for my solo401k account for my side gig. I max my 403B with my W2 employer. The max after-tax I can do is then (66k-22.5k) = 43.5k, I don't put any pretax because I rather have after-tax/roth funds. And again, it's all from side gig income, not my employer.

It sounds like your husband's plan is through his employer, which can have restrictions and limits.

[Tangler]

Bought more today: VTI, VIOV, VXUS.

just keep buying

[Tangler]

Here we go again. Nasty outside. Buy and ignore the noise.

last few days bought: VTI, VIOV, VXUS.

Just keep buying.

Hang tight. Might be a bouncy ride folks, but we have a long way until RMDs so time is on our side….IMO.

[StateOfMyHead]

I intentionally picked up more SCHB and MPW this week. VTSAX is on weekly auto invest.