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Who is buying s&p now??

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  • Originally posted by Random1 View Post
    But in a paper published two decades ago, David Leinweber and Dave Krider found that butter production in Bangladesh had the tightest correlation to the S&P 500 of any data series they could find. It wasn’t GDP growth…it wasn’t earnings…it was Bangladeshi butter, which “explained” 99% of the S&P 500’s movements. The authors weren’t quacks.​
    eureka! egads, man! get this off the internet post haste and open an investment firm!
    “. . . And the LORD spake, saying “First shalt thou take out the Holy 401k. Then shalt thou save to 20%, no more, no less. 20% shall be the number thou shalt save, and the number of the saving shall be 20%. 25% shalt thou not save, neither save thou 15%, excepting that thou then proceed to 20%. 30% is right out . . .””

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    • [QUOTE=blippi;n375

      eureka! egads, man! get this off the internet post haste and open an investment firm![/QUOTE]

      Not yet.
      Once one of the triggers are hit, I really want to know the next targets. Really need to know the technical math that generates the targets. The secret sauce is the algorithm. Entry and exit followed by entry and exit.

      Every trading plan works until it doesn’t ! love trading plans with indicators then confirmations for position sizing.
      I really want to back test this.

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      • I tried doing some market timing. It didn't work out.

        Because I have VTSAX in my taxable and 403b/457b/Roth accounts (and it's not clear if this matters for a wash sale) there's only a few windows per year I can try doing some tax loss harvesting. This fall, 30 days had elapsed since my final non-taxable contribution and I had about ~$3k ish losses I could potentially harvest. All the financial news was bad, so I figured why not wait for some more losses and really make it worth my time to figure out how to do it and which funds to switch to. Except the S&P flatlined and then went up and then wavered despite everyone talking about how bad things were going to be. So I figured "screw it, not gonna bother with TLH" and just did my backlogged and regular taxable contributions. The S&P promptly dropped back down...

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        • Originally posted by ScubaV View Post
          I tried doing some market timing. It didn't work out.

          Because I have VTSAX in my taxable and 403b/457b/Roth accounts (and it's not clear if this matters for a wash sale) there's only a few windows per year I can try doing some tax loss harvesting. This fall, 30 days had elapsed since my final non-taxable contribution and I had about ~$3k ish losses I could potentially harvest. All the financial news was bad, so I figured why not wait for some more losses and really make it worth my time to figure out how to do it and which funds to switch to. Except the S&P flatlined and then went up and then wavered despite everyone talking about how bad things were going to be. So I figured "screw it, not gonna bother with TLH" and just did my backlogged and regular taxable contributions. The S&P promptly dropped back down...
          extremely insignificant in long term

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          • Originally posted by Random1 View Post
            But in a paper published two decades ago, David Leinweber and Dave Krider found that butter production in Bangladesh had the tightest correlation to the S&P 500 of any data series they could find. It wasn’t GDP growth…it wasn’t earnings…it was Bangladeshi butter, which “explained” 99% of the S&P 500’s movements. The authors weren’t quacks.​
            very interested to know what the butter is doing now…

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            • Originally posted by Yoshi Soto View Post

              Very good questions. It's all about having a market thesis and acting on it. Once the thesis is invalidated, I change my position. I'm currently short SPX. Thesis is that market is trying to front run a fed pivot which is unlikely to happen this year.

              The market is currently pricing in the following:
              -only 50 bps left of rate hikes with a terminal rate below 5%
              -rate cuts by next year
              -no recession

              If any of those turn out to be wrong, we have further to fall

              Based on technicals, I would close shorts at 3750 and re-enter long 50% at that position. Re-enter 25% at 3600 and final 25% at 3500.

              If we do not drop further from here and close above 4200 on a weekly candle, i re-enter at a loss

              If we drop to 3750, I'm 50% in and then we go up again, I re-enter at 4000 for breakeven on the remaining 50%.

              If Jerome starts speaking dovish at the next FOMC, I close all shorts and re-enter (at a likely loss)

              Just have to be disciplined, don't get attached to a position. Also not for everyone, I just love researching the markets. I would definitely come out ahead using this time to work clinical medicine instead of market research but that sounds like an absolutely miserable road to burnout, at least for me
              wow, that sounds like a lot of work. Too hard for this simple guy.
              Cool blog & pictures.
              I honestly hope you kill it. cool stuff, but not for me.

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              • Originally posted by Panscan View Post

                extremely insignificant in long term
                For sure. I'm not losing any sleep over it. But it was a good, cheap lesson that market timing doesn't work. The market can and will act irrationally. Everything is priced in, until it isn't and stonks only go up.

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                • Originally posted by WorkforFIRE View Post

                  very interested to know what the butter is doing now…
                  well, i just shipped a herd of cattle to bangladesh. so let me steer you to the idea that if you moove assets into s&p now expect to milk some profits in a few weeks.

                  like buttah
                  “. . . And the LORD spake, saying “First shalt thou take out the Holy 401k. Then shalt thou save to 20%, no more, no less. 20% shall be the number thou shalt save, and the number of the saving shall be 20%. 25% shalt thou not save, neither save thou 15%, excepting that thou then proceed to 20%. 30% is right out . . .””

                  Comment


                  • I still find it amazing that "amateurs" still think they can consistently beat the market with some sort of technical analysis. Even Bill Miller, one of the best long term fund managers in consistently beating the market for years, had a lot of skill and his superior performance was more attributable to luck than knowledge in the long run.

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