I write a weekly email and usually focus on topics where I try and break down boring financial topics and educate in a more interesting manner. On a regular basis I just share the facts of the market. I was writing my email for next week and thought I would share some interesting data based on 3rd quarter end.
- All equity asset classes are positive for the year, except for Commodities, which is down 2.9% for the year. The leading equity asset class is Emerging Markets at 28.1%. Next in line at 20.5% is Developed Markets.
- Large Cap Growth has led the way in US asset classes with a YTD return of 20.7%. Small Cap Value has been the laggard with “only” growth of 5.7%, but most of this came in the 3rd quarter.
- Mid Cap Value has been the leader since the market low in March 2009 with growth of 428%.
- Some of the drivers of GDP growth are lagging. They include working age population and immigration trends as well as the growth of real output per worker.
- The probability of someone aged 65 making it to age 80 is 63% for men and 73% for women. Reaching age 90 is 22% for men and 34% for women. Now, if they are a couple at age 65, the probability one of them makes it to age 80 is 90% and age 90 is 49%.
- Here’s what happened to a 60% stock and 40% bond portfolio over the last 20 years. Just buying and holding, without rebalancing, grew an average of 6.6% annually. By rebalancing annually the rebalanced portfolio saw annual growth of 7%. The rebalanced portfolio also saw lower volatility and a higher risk-adjusted return.
- The Treasury Spread recession indicator is at 10.3%. This looks forward 12 months.
Comment