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Ready to cry uncle - is the market topping out ???

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  • Ready to cry uncle - is the market topping out ???

    Is anyone else here old enough to have "cried uncle" when you were growing up or is it just me? As in, I give up, you win. Maybe I'm ready to cry uncle on the market top. Maybe I just haven't been creative enough.

    This one's for you, @Crixus. Or perhaps you were the muse for Barry Ritholtz...

    An Investor's Guide to Calling a Market Top
    Working to protect good doctors from bad advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

  • #2
    The future is always so tricky to predict. Crystal ball so cloudy....
    Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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    • #3
      Calling a market top is always best done in hindsight.

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      • #4
        A good crash would be wonderful right now since personally I'm just really starting to fill retirement accounts.   :lol:

        Would also help when we buy a house.

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        • #5
          I thought we had topped out 4-5 months ago when VTI was hitting 124/share for the first time.  Now it's up to 129/share.  Guess I would have been wrong then too.  I will admit that I am focusing more on debt pay down at the moment though.  But, I'm still buying shares every 2 weeks when I'm paid in our 401k's.  My 401k is just about max'd for the year, then I'll start putting a little into taxable each month while continuing to focus on debt.

          When the market corrects, I'll stop paying down debt and focus on saving/buying shares.

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          • #6
            LOL - is uncle that dated??? I feel old now.

            I uncled out of AMZN earlier this spring along with a bunch of stock I ventured into during the last downturn and ejected to 'safety' Total Market stocks while buffered my bond holdings a little more with the proceeds.

            Still heavy though and haven't moved out of Total Market since 10-15year retirement horizon planned -- really nowhere else to place without my BTTF Delorean and almenac.  (how about that to date myself!)  

             

            Edit:Portfolio

            Individual Real Estate 50% - owned free+clear - cash flowed

            Equities:  50% -- Breakdown:  70%  Total Stock Market  10% International European 20%  TE Cali Bonds --- only small smattering <50k in individual stocks now in the speculation fund.

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            • #7
              I even remember the Man from Uncle!

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              • #8
                Buy low sell high.

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                • #9




                  Buy low sell high.
                  Click to expand...


                  Buy high, sell higher.

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                  • #10
                    My favorite retrospective market top amature signals:

                    Somewhere around 1999: when some students in my med school class dropped out to work on their internet start ups...  They though we were all fools for staying when they were raking in the cash during the dot-com craze.

                    Somewhere around 2005: when one secretary at the hospital laughed at me for renting, and bought a house that I didn't think I could afford as a physician.  Rents were cheap then.

                    When amatures are telling you how foolish you are for being careful, and literally every last person is in, I get nervous.  When markets go straight up, the same.

                    I wish for a good crash too.  And one will come again.  I'll be coming here for moral support from you all when the time comes again.  I'll be looking for old-timer's wisdom to give me the strength to keep on.

                    For those who haven't seen their 401Ks drop 50% in value, it's, uh-hum, exciting times.

                    Tons of great books on market crashes and the depression for interesting perspectives, but timing it without hindsight is very improbable.

                     

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                    • #11
                      Never like to see a downturn for any reason. Love that tides raises all boats. The is why something like Trump hoping for a downturn for an opportunity for himself from the greater good has me SMH.

                      Most here are lucky enough to income earn their way out of a recession and if properly structured portfolio have resources to take advantage of more several undervalued opportunities.

                      That said, never fun to see net worth drop 40% at any point of our career.

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                      • #12
                        I do find sticking with your investment philosophy at these times to be the most difficult part of investing.

                        But then I remember back to the 1990s and the nuttiness of the return pattern we saw:

                         

                        S&P 500 Total return.

                        1995 = 37.6%

                        1996 = 23.0%

                        1997 = 33.4%

                        1998 = 28.6%

                        1999 = 21.0%

                        Today is obviously very different, but the ability to predict is the same.

                        KJF

                         

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                        • #13
                          I've been pondering this question.  most of us have plenty of time and plenty of income, so we figure we can ride it out, rather than market time.  it would be interesting to see how the strategies play out for those in their seventies or possibly late 60s.

                          The other area we might observe people's behaviors is the investment strategies for the 529 plans, which have a much clearer and shorter time line.  There is also much less utility in over funding it, so if there are catastrophic short term losses, you would have to cash flow the differences.  that would feel like a punch to the privates after thinking your $$ were set already.  Less time to allow market recovery as well.

                           

                           

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                          • #14
                            I believe we had this same topic roughly a year ago. It paid to stay the course. Usually does

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                            • #15
                              I have gotten a sense here over the years here (and non stop mentioned in media) that the "market will always come back".  Well maybe it will and maybe it won't; how this is looked at should in part depend on when retirement or FI is anticipated.  Note that in the chart linked below that from the 1929 peak, it took until 1958 to become even (not including dividends).  From the 1968 high, it took until 1991. Are you able to wait that long?

                              The major investment firms say "it will always come back".  Well, will it?  Total complete utter nonsense in my opinion; no one can predict the future.

                              Take a look at Japan since 1990.  Close to 50% of it's high currently.

                              I submit that it's better to take the time to learn basic long term charting to make major changes on and safe oneself time, possibly decades before one "breaks even" again if it ever does.

                              Prosperity is not guaranteed.

                              http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

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