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Will Crypto really go back up?

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  • Will Crypto really go back up?

    So my entire portfolio is down 70%+, which includes stocks and crypto. I know we are not fortunetellers and cannot predict the future, but should I be confident that it will eventually go back up? Anything I can do to lessen the hit?
    Most of my crypto is BTC and ETH, with some XRP, Chain, Doge, etc in Coinbase. BTC cost basis is about ~45K and ETH cost basis is ~4.5K.
    For example, would it be a good idea to buy more now during the dip (DCA) to lower my cost basis and then sell when it goes up eventually, hopefully?
    TYIA
    Last edited by Joe1; 06-21-2022, 10:23 AM.

  • #2
    confident? definitely not.

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    • #3
      It might. Or it probably will to some degree, I’d guess, or yeah…. but who knows. At least you learned a great lesson about risk tolerance and speculating in risky investments. The important thing is not to give up on normal intelligent investing. And to remember what can happen when you speculate with the retail crowd.

      It’s good to get obliterated, especially early in life, and with not a huge amount of money overall. Might be a good idea to read the top 10 classic investing books, and do some DCA into broad index funds. Don’t give up on investing, but realize that you really messed up and can’t do that again. It will take what, 130% gain from here just to get you back to $0?

      Everyone is an investing genius when the market is roaring up. How could one not be? During bear market cycles, we all find out who is FOS.
      Last edited by Jaqen Haghar MD; 06-23-2022, 09:14 AM.

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      • #4
        I’m completely confident crypto will go back up. I’m gonna hang onto mine, just like I’m hanging onto my beanie babies and tulip bulbs. Any day now they’re all going shoot right back up and make me rich…

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        • #5
          No. It’s over

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          • #6
            I have no idea, but I suspect it will go up above where it is now. Might even go back to where it was. I'm skeptical of BTC going to $500K or $1 million though.

            If your entire portfolio is down 70%, it must be mostly cryptoassets. Stocks are only down 25% overall.
            Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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            • #7
              Classic investing psychology, buy late when things are topping, sell low when things are painful. First thing you gotta do is come up with your investment plan- that can be as simple as DCA into VTI/VTSAX/whatever other tilt plus rebalance. Or it can be as complicated as buying at such and such price and selling at this higher or lower price (which is more of a trading strategy). Either way, both are unemotional and relatively algorithmic. So, come up with a plan. You can make it as simple or complex as you want- with complexity typically requiring more time and knowledge which may or may not yield returns over buy and hold.

              Much of what is happening is multiple compression because of liquidity constraints and future projected growth lower. If everything is currently going lower, which asset do you think speculators as well as money managers will jettison first? My guess is the coin with the dog on it. Doesn't mean it can't recover, there is just no time table to know that unless the narrative from the fed changes.

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              • #8
                Thanks! Would it be a good idea to buy more now during the dip (DCA) to lower my cost basis and then sell when it goes up eventually, hopefully?

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                • #9
                  In the long term, no way... it is going to zero. "Long term" could be a year or less. Bitcoin trading is only, what, 10 or 12yrs old? Not even?

                  In the short term? There will probably be blips.

                  They are basically people thinking they are buying low (or funds buying back in to spike the price short term)... but then there will be sell-offs (same ppl or funds) again that drive it down again and again harder and harder until people realize in no uncertain terms that it's done. That's how all of these things work: something with no value can have a high price on hype, but when the confidence is gone, it's done.

                  ...In other news, MMM and PG and GOOG and VOO and stuff will go up. Yes. But they have profits an products and stuff like that

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                  • #10
                    Buy more of what? Crypto? No (as its "value" is tethered to nothing in reality; it has no physicality and therefore cannot be made into anything, and it produces no good or services). Stocks or real estate? Yes.

                    Time to stop speculating and start investing.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Joe1 View Post
                      Thanks! Would it be a good idea to buy more now during the dip (DCA) to lower my cost basis and then sell when it goes up eventually, hopefully?
                      I would ask yourself a very important question: Why? Why did you buy it to begin with?

                      Do you understand it?

                      Did you buy it just because it was going up ( in hopes of selling it to a greater fool) or did you buy it because you think it will do something to justify the price?

                      Frankly I would stop putting money into it and put money into VTI and VXUS and focus on being a good doc and making more money, but you are not me.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by artemis View Post
                        Buy more of what? Crypto? No (as its "value" is tethered to nothing in reality; it has no physicality and therefore cannot be made into anything, and it produces no good or services). Stocks or real estate? Yes.

                        Time to stop speculating and start investing.
                        Roger that!

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                        • #13
                          You would be better off with a well stuffed mattress than crypto. Like above , buy a target date fund for like 2080 and should should be fine.

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                          • #14
                            If you are going to speculate in made up money you might as well go head first. DCA is for sissies.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by zlandar View Post
                              If you are going to speculate in made up money you might as well go head first. DCA is for sissies.
                              So just curious, why do people say crypto is the future and believe in it, etc?

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