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Bonds? James Bond?

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  • xraygoggles
    replied
    Originally posted by Tangler View Post

    Which muni ETF do you like?
    I've used Vteb and Mub in the past.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tangler
    replied
    Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
    I use short term Treasuries mainly, along with a muni ETF.
    Which muni ETF do you like?

    Leave a comment:


  • xraygoggles
    replied
    I use short term Treasuries mainly, along with a muni ETF.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dewangski1
    replied
    Originally posted by bovie View Post

    Maybe, over very specific periods, but you have to time it correctly. Good luck with that.

    Otherwise you are just holding a non-productive asset long-term, which historically has comparatively poor returns and hasn’t even been that good of a hedge.
    I definitely hear this and see this opinion frequently. However, run simulations of your favorite portfolio with and without gold. While history is not guaranteed to repeat, I have struggled to find a simple stock/bond/RE portfolio that wins without gold. Again, it’s not a return play, but rather diversification for stability and volatility. But I do agree that it can drag, but so can cash and bonds and I’m only consider a 2 year expense allocation.

    Leave a comment:


  • bovie
    replied
    Originally posted by Dewangski1 View Post

    I appreciate the call out for gold here - it’s the exact reason that it’s on my radar - because it drags until it shines. It’s a situational hedge.
    Maybe, over very specific periods, but you have to time it correctly. Good luck with that.

    Otherwise you are just holding a non-productive asset long-term, which historically has comparatively poor returns and hasn’t even been that good of a hedge.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dewangski1
    replied
    Originally posted by Marko-ER View Post

    Ha ha, we did the same. Refinanced at 2.125% APR, got 100K out for a second home purchase and a HELOC at 3.5% for any short term remodeling needs. That and gold are the only 2 assets that have held up.
    I appreciate the call out for gold here - it’s the exact reason that it’s on my radar - because it drags until it shines. It’s a situational hedge.

    Leave a comment:


  • Marko-ER
    replied
    Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post

    The truly sad thing about this is that I (and probably you and possibly most of this forum) would have been better off with upgrading our house to the most expensive thing we could afford during COVID and getting a large 30 year mortgage in May 2020.

    That in retrospect has done better than everything else I can think of.

    I can’t believe I’ve been spending huge amounts of time thinking about equities in the last 2 years, when my return would have been double that with about 1% of the thinking if I’d just listened to my wife!
    Ha ha, we did the same. Refinanced at 2.125% APR, got 100K out for a second home purchase and a HELOC at 3.5% for any short term remodeling needs. That and gold are the only 2 assets that have held up.

    Leave a comment:


  • jz-
    replied
    you think long rates are nearing a peak? the worst treasury selloff in history continues..
    treasuries have been wobbling between further unexpected inflation ( they fall ) and market panic ( they rise ). I've started a position anticipating panic >> unexpected inflation. I can live with any regret.

    Leave a comment:


  • triad
    replied
    Originally posted by jz- View Post
    My practice with bonds has always been low risk and short. i.e. short treasuries, short munis, short cds.
    Yesterday I bought long-term.
    you think long rates are nearing a peak? the worst treasury selloff in history continues...

    Leave a comment:


  • jz-
    replied
    My practice with bonds has always been low risk and short. i.e. short treasuries, short munis, short cds.
    Yesterday I bought long-term.

    Leave a comment:


  • LIFO
    replied
    Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post

    Can you provide a link that the relative size of the bond market owned by the private sector has increased?

    Bond issuance has increased and central banks have issued a lot more bonds, that they have bought, as part of QE.
    What do you need from a link outlining bond ownership? The QE experiment is over and bond runoffs have begun in earnest. Per fed plans, they will accelerate in September. Wanton deficit spending continues.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dont_know_mind
    replied
    Originally posted by LIFO View Post

    Given the relative and increasing size of the bond market to the stock market, what then happens to the stock market if bonds once again become attractive and money supply continues to contract?
    Can you provide a link that the relative size of the bond market owned by the private sector has increased?

    Bond issuance has increased and central banks have issued a lot more bonds, that they have bought, as part of QE.

    Leave a comment:


  • LIFO
    replied
    Originally posted by Zaphod View Post
    No bonds. If anything I've been shorting bonds.

    Though they may become attractive soon.
    Given the relative and increasing size of the bond market to the stock market, what then happens to the stock market if bonds once again become attractive and money supply continues to contract?

    Leave a comment:


  • Max Power
    replied
    Originally posted by Zaphod View Post
    No bonds. If anything I've been shorting bonds.

    Though they may become attractive soon.
    Precisely.

    For any asset class, when the commoners start fixating on something (ie, dot com stocks 2000, flipping houses 2005-06, Bitcoin 2021, etc), you've clearly missed the wave.

    ...Get S&P index and good stocks during this current sale for as long as it lasts. After that, buy it regularly as planned.

    Bonds are for people who have already won the game (and are in a good interest rate environment). Expecting serious growth from bonds is not wise. Right now, they won't even keep with inflation. Wake me up on bonds if interest rates ever hit double digits, at which point they may have merit again.

    Leave a comment:


  • Marko-ER
    replied
    I-bonds, which I bought a couple of years ago when fixed rate was at 0.5%. Waiting for fixed rate to increase before buying more -- I am NOT cashing them out before the 5 year penalty period, and preferably not cashing them out at all until I find some losses to offset if I need more dry powder for stock purchases at a major down in the market, or more likely at retirement when I am at a lower (or null) income tax rate -- in Puerto Rico or maybe if I turn diplomat.

    Individual muni bonds, for my own state, in a ladder with maturity dates of 2-7 years, which I plan to carry to maturity.

    A small 5-7% bond mix which I have tilted toward short term, less rate dependent variety end of 2021-early 2022 (good choice): basically went from intermediate bonds (like ticker BND) 75% to short term bonds (like ticker VUSB) 25% to a ratio of 85-90% short-term to 10-15% intermediate. Though I think it is a fools errand to predict the bottom of interest rates cycles, but there is such a thing as a momentum play with bonds and unlike stocks chances of loss/missed gains are a lot less. If the FED hikes rates at 0.75 I will VERY slowly start transitioning back to intermediate rate bond ETFs.

    edit: I do not have the guts to short bonds, especially in a 3X inverse ETF.

    Leave a comment:

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