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Bonds? James Bond?

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  • #31
    you think long rates are nearing a peak? the worst treasury selloff in history continues..
    treasuries have been wobbling between further unexpected inflation ( they fall ) and market panic ( they rise ). I've started a position anticipating panic >> unexpected inflation. I can live with any regret.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post

      The truly sad thing about this is that I (and probably you and possibly most of this forum) would have been better off with upgrading our house to the most expensive thing we could afford during COVID and getting a large 30 year mortgage in May 2020.

      That in retrospect has done better than everything else I can think of.

      I can’t believe I’ve been spending huge amounts of time thinking about equities in the last 2 years, when my return would have been double that with about 1% of the thinking if I’d just listened to my wife!
      Ha ha, we did the same. Refinanced at 2.125% APR, got 100K out for a second home purchase and a HELOC at 3.5% for any short term remodeling needs. That and gold are the only 2 assets that have held up.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Marko-ER View Post

        Ha ha, we did the same. Refinanced at 2.125% APR, got 100K out for a second home purchase and a HELOC at 3.5% for any short term remodeling needs. That and gold are the only 2 assets that have held up.
        I appreciate the call out for gold here - it’s the exact reason that it’s on my radar - because it drags until it shines. It’s a situational hedge.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Dewangski1 View Post

          I appreciate the call out for gold here - it’s the exact reason that it’s on my radar - because it drags until it shines. It’s a situational hedge.
          Maybe, over very specific periods, but you have to time it correctly. Good luck with that.

          Otherwise you are just holding a non-productive asset long-term, which historically has comparatively poor returns and hasn’t even been that good of a hedge.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by bovie View Post

            Maybe, over very specific periods, but you have to time it correctly. Good luck with that.

            Otherwise you are just holding a non-productive asset long-term, which historically has comparatively poor returns and hasn’t even been that good of a hedge.
            I definitely hear this and see this opinion frequently. However, run simulations of your favorite portfolio with and without gold. While history is not guaranteed to repeat, I have struggled to find a simple stock/bond/RE portfolio that wins without gold. Again, it’s not a return play, but rather diversification for stability and volatility. But I do agree that it can drag, but so can cash and bonds and I’m only consider a 2 year expense allocation.

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            • #36
              I use short term Treasuries mainly, along with a muni ETF.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
                I use short term Treasuries mainly, along with a muni ETF.
                Which muni ETF do you like?

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Tangler View Post

                  Which muni ETF do you like?
                  I've used Vteb and Mub in the past.

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